Well we are down to the final four and it's an odd collection of teams. We have four different conferences represented and the two coasts. Here are the teams.
South Carolina vs Gonzaga
Oregon vs North Carolina
At this point in the tournament North Carolina will be the heavy favorites to win it all as they came in second last year and appear to be the best team standing, but people thought Kansas looked to be the best team and Oregon handled them with little problem. Since we missed out on a final 8 entry let's cover what's happened since we last got up to date on the tournament.
Florida and South Carolina met in the East championship game. Not sure anyone except for diehard SEC fans thought that would happen. In the West Xavier surprised everyone by knocking off Arizona, but then ran out of steam as they got rolled by Gonzaga. In the Midwest we got Oregon and Kansas as expected, but then Oregon surprised everyone by beating Kansas and beating them pretty easily. In the South Kentucky played a brilliant game to beat UCLA while UNC easily rolled over Butler, then managed to beat UK with a last second jumper and as you would hear from any UK fan a lot of help from the refs.
Here is where I should talk a little bit about myself. When I was a kid I had three big teams that I rooted for. UK basketball, the Oakland A's, and the Miami Dolphins. I rooted for other teams like the 76ers as a kid, but those were the big three for me. The first big blow to me as a sports fan was the Dolphins loss to the Charger in the 1982 playoff game. The second big blow was the A's first game world series loss to the Dodgers in 1988. The last and final blow for me was the 1992 UK loss to Duke in the NCAA tournament. I have never been the same kind of sports fan since that game. Just can't sit and watch a game for a team I really like, makes me too nuts. So with UK playing UNC yesterday I found myself constantly checking in on the score and hoping against hope that UK would pull it out. I'm so glad I was not watching.
I say all of this to say I wish I could write more in depth about the Kentucky game the way GoHeath did on this site in the past, but I can't.
Of course for me the NCAA is also an exercise in my programs' abilities to predict the tournament. This has been a very bad year for me. Here are where things stand.
Sagarin 81 pts / 145 possible
Model4 79 pts / 95 possible
KenPom 76 pts / 140 possible
Model1 68 pts / 68 possible
RPI 61 pts / 61 possible
Model2 59 pts / 59 possible
Model3 58 pts / 106 possible
I've been doing this for 20 years, this is the worst Model1 has ever performed. Luckily my latest model, Model4, the one I forgot about until after the tournament had started has performed well, but that model has Kansas winning it all over Gonzaga so that model cannot win the championship. Model3 now is my lone hope. That model has Oregon winning it all. It should be noted that the Sagarin bracket has UNC and Gonzaga in the final as does the KenPom bracket so unless Oregon is the champion Sagarin will win.