Wrapping Up

1.  Michigan finished as the Number 1 team on Ken Pom.  Their Net Rating of +39.70 is the highest in his dataset, which goes back to 1997.  They were Number 78 in luck.

2.  UConn finished as the Number 9 team on Ken Pom, and ranked 45 in luck.

3.  Florida was the top-ranked team in the SEC.  They finished Number 6 on Ken Pom, and number 295 in luck.  Last year they were 100 in luck.

4.  Vandy finished Number 11 on Ken Pom, and number 177 in luck.  It's their highest final rating in Ken Pom's dataset.  It's also the first time in the dataset that Vandy has finished the year ranked ahead of every other school in Kentucky and Tennessee.

5.  Kentucky finished number 29 on Ken Pom, and number 213 in luck.  Here are UK's teams since 2019, the last time the Cats reached a Regional Final:

2020:  25-6 (15-3 in the SEC) (29 on Ken Pom) (No NCAA Tournament)

2021:  9-16 (8-9) (49) (missed the NCAA Tournament)

2022:  26-8 (14-4) (6) (eliminated in the first round by St. Peter's)

2023:  22-12 (12-6) (27) (eliminated in the second round by Kansas St.)

2024:  23-10 (13-5) (23) (eliminated in the first round by Oakland)

2025:  24-12 (10-8) (16) (eliminated in the Regional Semi-Final by Tennessee)

2026:  22-14 (10-8) (29) (eliminated in the second round by Iowa St.)

The NYT has UK ranked number 19 in its Way Too Early Top 25.  I think that's about where they will be ranked when the season starts next year.  I don't think that's where they will finish.

6.  This was the 51st time I have watched the NCAA Tournament since I became a UK fan in early 1975.  If you give each team 1 point for every appearance in the Regional Semi-Finals over that period, 2 points for each appearance in the Regional Finals, 4 points for each appearance in the National Semi-Finals, 8 points for each appearance in the National Final, and 16 points for each National Championship, then the top ten teams of this era look like this:

1.  Duke:  295 (1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, 2015)

2.  N. Carolina:  287 (1982, 1993, 2005, 2009, 2017)

3.  Kentucky:  237 (1978, 1996, 1998, 2012)

4.  Connecticut:  228 (1999, 2004, 2011, 2014, 2023, 2024)

5.  Kansas:  192 (1988, 2008, 2022)

6.  Michigan:  154 (1989, 2026)

7.  Louisville:  149 (1980, 1986, 2013)

8.  U.C.L.A.:  141 (1975, 1995)

9.  Michigan St:  139 (1979, 2000)

10.  Florida:  136 (2006, 2007, 2025)

And that wraps up the 2026 NCAA Basketball Season, which was a great one.

The National Championship

It is bright, sunny, and 56 degrees in downtown Washington today.  We have made it through another winter, and it's time to start going outside again.  Back to the lakes.  Back to the rivers.  Back to the hot dog grills, and bass fishing at 6 A.M., and Dollywood, and Paxton Park, and Noble Park, and garage sales, and strawberry picking, and Vacation Bible School, and the Land Between the Lakes.

But tonight, we have one final celebration of light amidst the darkness.  Tonight, there is a game on Ken Pomeroy's FanMatch for the last time until November:

7:49 P.M. Central (TBS):  (3) Michigan (36-3) v. (7) Connecticut (34-5)

The rankings above are based on the final AP poll before the tournament began.  On Ken Pom, UConn is Number 9, with a Luck Ranking of 33, while Michigan is Number 1, with a luck score of 89.  Michigan's Net Rating on Ken Pom is +39.72, which means that over 100 possessions, Michigan will outscore the average opponent by almost 40 points.  It's the highest Net Rating for any team in the Ken Pom database, going back to 1997.  So if Michigan wins tonight, they will have a strong case to be the best team in NCAA basketball since Kentucky's 1996 powerhouse.  

To put the Wolverines in context, consider the following.  In 1998, UK's champions had a Net Rating of +29.29.  In 2012, the National Champion Cats had a Net Rating of +32.59.  The 2015 Cats, who finished 38-1, had a Net Rating of +36.91.  Under Pomeroy's system, on a neutral court, this Michigan team would be a solid favorite against any of those teams.  That's how good they are.

But they aren't out of the woods yet.  They have to overcome a lot of history.  The last Classic Big Ten team to win the national title was Michigan State, who beat Florida in the 2000 final.  Since that time, seven different schools from the Classic Big Ten have reached the NCAA Final, but they have all lost.  Furthermore, they have mostly lost to teams from the East Coast, and most of these matchups have not been close:

2002:  Maryland 64, Indiana 52

2005:  N. Carolina 75, Illinois 70

2007:  Florida 84, Ohio St. 75

2009:  N. Carolina 89, Michigan St. 72

2013:  Louisville 82, Michigan 76

2015:  Duke 68, Wisconsin 63

2018:  Villanova 79, Michigan 62

2024:  Connecticut 75, Purdue 60

However, I would note that in each of those games, the Big Ten team was the underdog.  This time, Ken Pom is picking Michigan to win by 77-70.  No one respects UConn more than I do, but Duke showed that the Huskies can be beaten, and we'll see if Michigan can turn the trick tonight.  Either way, I think this game will mark a significant turning point in college basketball history.  If UConn wins, they are clearly the dominant program of the 21st century.  If Michigan wins, then the Big Ten is well-positioned to control men's basketball in the same way that it now controls football.  After all, the Big Ten used to lose football playoff games -- but they don't any more.

Byington Watch

As Dusty May has turned down UNC, everyone is reporting that Mark Byington of Vanderbilt is under consideration to be the next coach of the Tar Heels.  Of course, that would be a disaster for Vanderbilt, although their Athletic Director has shown serious talent in hiring new coaches.  I don't think it matters that much for UK, because the Cats will be losing to both Vandy and UNC for some time to come.

The last great coach at Vandy was Eddie Fogler, who won the SEC Regular Season title in 1993.  But he was immediately poached by South Carolina.  If the Commodores lose Byington after only two seasons, that will be extremely frustrating.

But these are two very different situations.  Fogler left for South Carolina in large part because Vandy didn't make much of an effort to keep him.  That decision effectively killed Vandy's basketball program for the next 15 years.  Byington just signed a new contract with Vandy, and the Administration has made clear that they intend to build a winning basketball program.  If he leaves, it won't be because Vandy didn't do its best, but because UNC represents a unique opportunity.  It will still hurt for Vandy fans, but at least they won't blame their own administration.

The National Semi-Finals

We will not have another Saturday with college football or college basketball until late August.  I will miss it enormously, but as I grow older I appreciate different seasons more and more.  Today's games represent one of the best Final Fours in many years:

5:09 PM Central (TBS):  (7) Connecticut (33-5) v. (13) Illinois (28-8)

7:49 PM Central (TBS):  (2) Arizona (36-2) v. (3) Michigan (35-3)

This year's tournament is the first time since 2014 that the names of the four teams are also the names of four different states.  In 2014 the Final Four was Connecticut, Kentucky, Florida, and Wisconsin.

Top 20 Home Run Hitters of All Time

There used to be lots of lists like this when I was a kid, but I haven't seen this one in years:

1.  Barry Bonds:  762

2.  Henry Aaron:  755

3.  Babe Ruth:  714

4.  Albert Pujols:  703

5.  Alex Rodriguez:  696

6.  Willie Mays:  660

7.  Ken Griffey, Jr.:  630

8.  Jim Thome:  612

9.  Sammy Sosa:  609

10.  Frank Robinson:  586

11.  Mark McGwire:  583

12.  Harmon Killebrew:  573

13.  Rafael Palmeiro:  569

14.  Reggie Jackson:  563

15.  Manny Ramirez:  555

16.  Mike Schmidt:  548

17.  David Ortiz:  541

18.  Mickey Mantle:  536

19.  Jimmie Foxx:  534

T20.  Willie McCovey:  521

T20.  Frank Thomas:  521

T20.  Ted Williams:  521

The highest ranked active player is Giancarlo Stanton, who has 454 homers.