NBA Update

Last night, the Knicks beat Boston 121-113, to pick up their biggest win since the days of Pat Riley.  And then Minnesota beat Golden State 117-110.  So after four games, the quarterfinals look like this:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Cleveland 1 - 3 (4) Indiana

(2) Boston 1 - 3 (3) New York

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Oklahoma City 2 - 2 (4) Denver

(6) Minnesota 3 - 1 (7) Golden St.

Here are the latest odds to win the conference:

New York:  +115

Indiana:  +210

Cleveland:  +410

Boston:  +850

Oklahoma City:  -195

Minnesota:  +240

Denver:  +850

Golden St:  +8000

It's important to understand that Jayson Tatum and Steph Curry are both injured, and that helps to explain why Boston and Golden State are probably done for the year.

NBA Update

OK, so I've been traveling, which is why this update is delayed.  The First Round of the playoffs was relatively predictable -- except for Golden State's win on the road in Game Seven.  Here are the results from the first round:

EASTERN CONFERENCE:

(1) Cleveland 4 - 0 (8) Miami

(4) Indiana 4 - 1 (5) Milwaukee

(3) New York 4 - 2 (6) Detroit

(2) Boston 4 - 1 (7) Orlando

WESTERN CONFERENCE:

(1) Oklahoma City 4 - 0 (8) Memphis

(4) Denver 4 - 3 (5) L.A. Clippers

(3) L.A. Lakers 1 - 4 (6) Minnesota

(2) Houston 3 - 4 (7) Golden St.

And that set up the following quarter-finals:

(1) Cleveland v. (4) Indiana

(2) Boston v. (3) New York

(1) Oklahoma City v. (4) Denver

(6) Minnesota v. (7) Golden St.

Now on paper, this looked to be pretty straightforward.  Cleveland and Boston would advance.  Denver is probably the only team in the West that could challenge OKC.  And it would be fun to watch the aged Warriors take on Minnesota, even if it was only for a few games.

But then the games started, and things got nuts (home teams listed first):

05/04:  Cleveland 112 - 121 Indiana

05/05:  Boston 105 - 108 New York (OT)

05/05:  Oklahoma City 119 - 121 Denver

05/06:  Cleveland 119 - 120 Indiana

05/06:  Minnesota 88 - 99 Golden St.

05/07:  Boston 90 - 91 New York

05/07:  Oklahoma City 149 - 106 Denver

The first six quarterfinal games were all won by the road team.  Four of those games were decided by three points are less, and they all went to the road team.  One game went to overtime, and it was won by the road team.  I would be willing to bet that in the entire history of the NBA, there has never been a season where road teams won six games in a row in the quarterfinals.  And it's even wilder than it looks on paper -- the Knicks, for example, won back-to-back games in the Boston Garden where they trailed by 20 points.  For second time in these playoffs, Indiana won a game where they trailed by seven points with less than 50 seconds left.  Crazy, wonderful stuff.

So now the quarterfinals look like this:

(1) Cleveland 0 - 2 (4) Indiana

(2) Boston 0 - 2 (3) New York

(1) Oklahoma City 1 - 1 (4) Denver

(6) Minnesota 0 - 1 (7) Golden St.

But the gamblers haven't completely abandoned the top seeds.  Here are the current odds to win the Eastern Conference:

Boston:  +155

New York:  +300

Indiana:  +350

Cleveland:  +350

And here are the odds to win the West:

Oklahoma City:  -195

Minnesota:  +390

Denver:  +700

Golden St:  +1100

The next two weeks probably can't compare with this week, but they should be very entertaining.

The Music of 2025 So Far Featuring Max McNown

 Lower by Benjamin Booker

 

Salt River by Sam Amidon

 

Night Driving by Max McNown

 

 

Max McNown is an Oregon born Nashville based country artist.  I enjoyed this album.  His second and two albums in two years.  It's nice to be reminded that even in Nashville someone can write music about more than God, whiskey, and trucks.  It's also nice to hear someone not overproduce an album, something else I wasn't sure they could do in Nashville anymore.  

OK enough cracking on Nashville.  What makes this album is the fact that McNown is a good vocalist who is writing thoughtful and personal songs.  The album has a consistent vibe and a good feel to it.  It falls more into the pop country genre than anything else, much like Taylor Swift when she was country I would say.  

This would be a good album to play when taking a night drive.  You could either sing along with it or have it in the background while talking with a friend.  All in all a solid album. 

NHL Update

There's a Heath Post from 1985 or 1986 in which I suggested on the op-ed page that our high school should quit playing interscholastic basketball and instead turn the gym into a hockey rink and launch a varsity team. Now I can't believe I ever said that out loud. I don't remember even considering how it might've made the basketball players and coaches feel, and, in fact, I'm pretty sure I didn't consider it, because there's no way I would've written it had I considered it. That sort of qualm would pretty much end me with journalism about 10 years later, but I guess I hadn't yet aged into thinking about stuff like that in 1985 or '86. I was just saying things that I sort of believed and that I thought would get me attention.

Anyway, I have always liked hockey. It's solidly my fourth-favorite sport to watch, and hockey is a goodly bit closer to being third (ahead of baseball) than it is to being fifth (behind golf, curling, racing or whatever catches my fancy in a given season). And then a few months ago, I decided I needed to start watching more sports because I really do love that. I realized in the last couple of decades that I actually love playing sports more than I love watching them, but I do still love watching them, too, and, so, a few months ago, I decided to start watching them more again. And so I've watched a lot in the first months of 2025--most of the Masters, almost all of UK's basketball season, some baseball, a bunch of NBA and probably more NHL in a two-month span than I'd ever watched.

Playoff hockey is, of course, famously great, and, for my money, the reputation is deserved. And I say that having actually missed the phenomenal ending of the Blues-Jets series last night. I was rooting for St. Louis because I've always loved their uniforms and because the Blues were always my late brother Kurt's favorite team. In Game 7 of their series last night, St. Louis jumped out ahead of Winnipeg by 2-0. Then the Jets close to 2-1, and then the Blues, at the very end of the third period, got back out by 3-1.

At this point, I quit watching. Our daughter went back to school yesterday afternoon, and things have been cuckoo in the comings and goings of my wife and me these days. I know plenty of families who have it a lot cuckooier all of the time than we do, so maybe it's just that we are babies. But, whatever, for my wife and me, this period has been supremely cuckoo. And so by 9 p.m. or so when those great uniforms went back out by two goals with only one period left to play, I decided to quit paying attention to sports and instead focus more of my attention on my wife. 

That was the right move, but, man, oh, man, did I ever miss a finish in Blues-Jets! Winnipeg scored with about a minute to go in the third period, and then they scored again in the last couple of seconds to force overtime. And then the Jets won in the second overtime. 

That gets us to down to the conference semifinals and eight teams vying for the 109th awarding of the Lord Stanley of Preston Cup:

• Carolina Hurricanes of Raleigh, N.C., United States
• Dallas Stars of Dallas, Texas, United States
• Edmonton Oilers of Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
• Florida Panthers of Sunrise, Florida, United States
• Toronto Maple Leafs of Toronto, Ontario, Canada
• Vegas Golden Knights of Paradise, Nevada, United States
• Washington Capitals of Washington, D.C., United States
• Winnipeg Jets of Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

I'm interested in the NBA playoffs, too (hooray the Warriors won last night!); the amazing Athletics have lit the whole sports world on freaking fire (19-16!), and I'm starting to go nuts about the new Dolphins (I've got to remember to take a flyer on Ollie Gordon II in our Yahoo! league). But I think I'm going to plan to HP the rest of the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Capitals are my favorite, of course, but I could get pretty excited about any one of five or six of these eight teams winning the whole deal.

2025 NFL Draft Rankings

It's that time of year, post draft and we can look at the 2025 draft results.  Like last year I'm comparing how the teams did against consensus.  Again I'm using Wide Left but also looking at PFF's draft grades.  

Like last year I focused on the top 200 picks primarily for my grades looking at the top 100 and later picks as well to help determine a + or - adjustment to the grade.  

The team to get the most value out of their top 200 picks this year was the New York Giants.  This came mostly from one pick G Marcus Mbow, who was a consensus top 100 player they got at pick 154.  But they also didn't take any wild swings in this draft they only had two negative value picks QB Jaxson Dart was -24 and CB Korie Black the 246th pick was -35.  It was a consistent draft getting value at almost every pick.  It will be interesting to look back at this one in 5 years.  PFF gave their draft an A-, I gave it an A. 

The team to get the least value in the top 200 picks were the San Francisco 49ers with -436 points.  Negative value selections are all over their draft LB Nick Martin was the consensus 192nd player they took at 75.  WR Jordan Watkins was the consensus 304th player they took at 138.  Over the last 5 drafts the 49ers ranked 24th in player value added to their team according to Pro Football Reference, so this doesn't bode well for them.  PFF gave them a D, their lowest grade, I gave them an F.  

Right in the middle we had the Vikings with -70 points in their top 200 picks.  Nothing special about their draft they were the average draft but with only 5 picks.  No wild swing and no big value grabs which is really the norm.  That average got them a C from me and a C- from PFF.

I had a total of 12 teams with C's and 9 teams with B's.  Out of those the biggest differences between by grades and PFFs were the Patriots, Titans, and Raiders.  I gave all of those teams C's they gave them all A's.  Two teams which got a D from me got A's from PFF.  The Seahawks and the Ravens.  Both of thos teams got positive value out of their selections in the top 100 but then took big swings between 100 and 200.  Over the last 5 seasons the Seahawks rank 2nd in value added according to Pro Football Reference and the Ravens rank 7th.  They are teams who seem to know what they are doing, so likely their grades will look pretty good in 5 years for this draft.  

One where I gave a much higher grade than PFF was the Cleveland Browns and this is all because of their pick of Shedeur Sanders.  Where they took him was 122 spots above his consensus rank.  He was also at a high value position so if he hits, it's a big win for them and my grade will look much better than PFF's.  I gave them an A-, PFF gave them a C+.  I gave them an A- because in their top 100 picks they had a value score of -106.  

Only one team gets an A+ from me in this exercise and that is the Atlanta Falcons, who PFF gave an A-.  They got value from every pick.  I'm ignoring the trade they made of course and just going on the value they gained.  They only had 5 picks and gave away more draft capital for next season, so maybe this won't look to good in 5 years, but at least they took players at or below their consensus spot.  

Below are the tables ranked in different orders.  Often if you see a team with huge swings it's because they picked a specialty player, like a long snapper, or a kicker.  

Ranked by Top 200 Picks Value

Ranked by Top 100 Picks Value

Ranked by Total Picks Value