Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Income to Expense Ratio

It all started with a conversation.  The idea was floated that we need a better measure for how people are doing rather than just looking at median income.  Let's face it when you see median income 1970 $8,730 and you see 2025 $87,460 it's easy to assume that people in 2025 are just a lot richer.  But is it true?  

This is how we get to the Income to Expense Ratio.  

I asked Co-Pilot a series of questions and then used those numbers to create a very simple formula.  

I = Income, H = Housing, HC = Health Care, HE = Higher Education, U = Utilities, A = Automobiles, T = Travel, S = Savings, CC = High Interest Debt

(H/I) + (HC/I) + (HE/I) + (U/I) + (A/I) + (T/I) - (S/I) + (CC/I) = ItoE

Here are the list of questions with results.  

1. As a standalone question, provide the U.S. median household income for the years 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2025. Use nominal (not inflation-adjusted) dollars. Present the results in a table and identify the primary data source.

YearMedian U.S. Household Income (Nominal Dollars)
1970$8,730
1980$21,020
1990$29,940
2000$41,990
2010$49,280
2020$67,520
2025$87,460

2. As a standalone question, provide the average annual housing cost per U.S. household for the years 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2025. Include mortgage principal and interest, property taxes, homeowners insurance, rent payments, and renter's insurance as applicable. Use a methodology that reflects both homeowners and renters in proportion to their prevalence during each year. Explain the methodology, identify the primary data source, and present the results in a table.

YearAverage Annual Housing Cost per U.S. Household
1970~$2,100
1980~$4,800
1990~$8,000
2000~$11,800
2010~$15,800
2020~$19,400
2025~$24,500

3. As a standalone question, provide the average annual healthcare expenditure per U.S. household for the years 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2025. Include spending paid by households, employers, and government programs. Present the results in a table and identify the primary data source.

YearAverage Healthcare Expenditure per Household
1970~$1,100
1980~$2,900
1990~$5,800
2000~$9,800
2010~$17,100
2020~$28,400
2025~$39,000

4. As a standalone question, provide the average annual cost of attending a public four-year in-state college in the United States for the years 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2025. Include tuition, mandatory fees, room, and board. Use the same methodology for all years and present the results in a table.

YearAverage Annual Cost of Attendance
1970~$2,000
1980~$4,000
1990~$8,000
2000~$12,000
2010~$20,000
2020~$26,000
2025~$29,000

5. As a standalone question, provide the average annual household spending on utilities in the United States for the years 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2025. Include electricity, natural gas, water, sewer, trash collection, and telecommunications where historical data permits. Use the same methodology for all years and present the results in a table.

YearAverage Annual Utility Spending per Household
1970~$600
1980~$1,300
1990~$2,100
2000~$2,900
2010~$4,100
2020~$4,700
2025~$5,500

6. As a standalone question, provide the average annual household spending on automobiles in the United States for the years 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2025. Include vehicle payments, fuel, insurance, maintenance, and registration costs. Use the same methodology for all years and present the results in a table.

YearAverage Annual Automobile Spending per Household
1970~$1,500
1980~$3,200
1990~$5,000
2000~$7,500
2010~$8,500
2020~$9,500
2025~$13,000

7. As a standalone question, provide the average annual household spending on travel and vacations in the United States for the years 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2025. Include transportation, lodging, and related travel expenses. Use the same methodology for all years and present the results in a table.

YearAverage Annual Travel & Vacation Spending per Household
1970~$500
1980~$1,000
1990~$1,800
2000~$2,700
2010~$3,100
2020~$1,800
2025~$4,500

8. As a standalone question, provide the average annual amount saved per U.S. household for the years 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2025. Define the savings measure used, use the same methodology for all years, and present the results in a table.

YearAverage Annual Savings per Household
1970~$800
1980~$2,000
1990~$2,500
2000~$2,000
2010~$2,700
2020~$8,000
2025~$9,000

9. As a standalone question, provide the average high-interest consumer debt per U.S. household for the years 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2025. Define high-interest debt as revolving credit card debt unless a better consistently available measure exists. Use the same methodology for all years and present the results in a table.

YearAverage High-Interest Consumer Debt per U.S. Household
1970~$500
1980~$1,500
1990~$3,000
2000~$5,500
2010~$7,000
2020~$8,200
2025~$10,900


OK so what were the results and what do they tell us.  

Housing in many ways has stayed fairly steady.  In 1970 Housing cost was 24% of income in 2025 that number is 28% with the worst year being 2010 at 32%.  Not surprising following the housing crash of 2008.  

Health Care is said to be one of the factors really affecting Americans and that shows up here.  In 1970 health care was 13% of income.  In 2025 it is at its highest level of 45%.  Let that sink in.  In 2000 it was 23% and by 2010 it was 35% and has really not slowed.  

Higher Education is another area that has shown significant increase.  1980 was the lowest mark at 19% of income with 2010 being the worst at 41%.  Today it is 33%.  

Utilities are very steady.  The lowest point was 1980 at 6% with 2010 being the highest at 8%.  

Automobiles are like utilities very steady.  The low mark was 2020 at 14% and the high in 2000 at 18%.  Today it is 15%. 

Travel is another steady number.  No surprise 2020 was the low mark at 3% with 6% being the high shared by a number of years.  

Savings perhaps is one of the most interesting because we see a continued effect from COVID.  2020 represents the high mark at 12% but even today the number is 10% tying it with 1980.  The lowest savings was 2000 and 2010 at just 5%.

Credit Card Debt was only 6% in 1970.  The high point came in 2010 at 14% and today it sits at 12%.  Once it moved into the double digits in 1990 it has never gone below double digits.  

So what then are the overall ratings.  We'll rank them from best ratio to worst.  

1. 1980 with an ItoE of 79%.  I guess Jimmy Carter wasn't doing as bad as we all tend to remember.  

2. 1970 with an ItoE of 86%.  The biggest difference between 1970 and 1980 was really the cost of higher education coming down by 1980 4% lower.  

3. 1990 with an ItoE of 104%.  Yes by 1990 expenses had outpaced our income and it has been that way now for more than 30 years.  

4. 2000 with an ItoE of 120%.  From 1980 until 2000 ItoE jumped 41%. That really should have been a wakeup call to maybe re-think our economic policies across the country.  

5. 2020 with an ItoE of 133%.  2020 is greatly helped by the massive jump in savings and reduction in travel cost.   Essentially 2020 was helped by COVID.  Those two things combined for a 10%-point swing from 2010 to 2020. 

6. 2025 with an ItoE of 134%.  At some point I'll have to try and run this for every year just to see more ebb and flow.  The increase in health care cost is what puts this year above 2020 and may explains why health care is such a hot topic in the 2026 elections.  

7. 2010 with an ItoE of 148%.  From 2010 to 2020 incomes would rise by almost $20,000.  During the 2000's income would rise only around $8,000 while expenses all went up.  


So let's ask ourselves was someone born in 1940 better off than someone born in 1980?  Well at age 30 and age 40 the person born in 1940 was experiencing the lowest ItoE of the last 55 years.  By the time the person born in 1980 was turning 30 they were facing the worst ItoE of the past 55 years and though things got slightly better by the time they were 40, they still weren't that much better, and they had to deal with COVID.  



Monday, November 2, 2026

First Day of College Basketball Season

With 13:47 left in the 2d half, Vandy leads Bellarmine 66 to 21.

Monday, October 26, 2026

Month of MLB: World Series Game Three

The Brewers swept the first two games of the World Series in Milwaukee, 3-2 and 5-4.  After winning 103 games in the regular season, the Brewers are now 9-1 in the post-season.  At this point, they are on one of the most impressive rolls we've ever seen.  Now they head to Tampa Bay with a chance to wrap this season up very quickly.

Classic SEC Standings, according to the CBS Rankings

3.  Georgia:  6-1
9.  Alabama:  6-2
10.  Kentucky:  7-1
11.  Louisiana St:  6-2
12.  Mississippi:  5-2
17.  Tennessee:  6-2
20.  Florida:  5-2
39.  Mississippi St:  4-3
40.  Auburn:  4-3
85.  Georgia Tech:  2-5
89.  Vanderbilt:  3-5
103.  Tulane:  3-4

Here's the Classic ACC:

13.  Wake Forest:  6-1
35.  Duke:  5-2
38.  S. Carolina:  4-3
46.  N. Carolina:  4-3
52.  Clemson:  4-3
53.  Virginia:  4-4
81.  N. Carolina St:  3-4
110.  Maryland:  2-5

Here's the Classic Big 10:

2.  Ohio St:  6-1
4.  Indiana:  7-1
16.  Northwestern:  6-1
23.  Wisconsin:  5-2
26.  Iowa:  5-2
30.  Minnesota:  5-2
45.  Michigan:  4-3
51.  Illinois:  4-3
78.  Purdue:  3-4
100.  Michigan St:  2-6

Here's the Classic Big 8:

22.  Missouri:  5-2
24.  Oklahoma St:  5-2
28.  Nebraska:  5-2
36.  Oklahoma:  4-3
50.  Kansas St:  4-2
68.  Iowa St:  3-4
70.  Kansas:  3-4
93.  Colorado:  2-5

Here's the Classic Southwest:

14.  Texas:  5-2
15.  Texas Tech:  6-1
18.  S.M.U.:  6-1
21.  Houston:  6-2
55.  Baylor:  4-3
56.  T.C.U.:  3-4
63.  Texas A & M:  4-4
79.  Arkansas:  3-4
131.  Rice:  1-7

And here's the Classic Pac-10:

5.  U.C.L.A.:  7-0
19.  Arizona:  6-1
29.  Oregon St:  5-2
31.  U.S.C.:  6-2
44.  Oregon:  4-3
57.  Washington:  4-3
62.  Arizona St:  4-3
87.  California:  3-5
99.  Stanford:  4-4
126.  Washington St:  1-7

Based on the current ranking, the Traditional Bowls would probably look like this:

Rose:  Ohio St. v. U.C.L.A.
Sugar:  Georgia v. Notre Dame
Orange:  Miami (Fla.) v. Indiana
Cotton:  Texas v. Alabama
Fiesta:  Utah v. Kentucky

It should be noted that Tennessee is favored to beat UK by nine points on November 7, so the Cats may not be ranked this highly for much longer.

Sunday, October 25, 2026

What a Crazy College Football Season

More high drama this weekend, as Central Florida knocked off B.Y.U. 39-31 in double overtime to take the Unofficial College Football Championship.  I'm pretty sure that this is the first time the Golden Knights have held the Big Trophy.

Meanwhile, in the SEC, the Kentucky Wildcats defeated the Vanderbilt Commodores 34-17 to take first place in the SEC all by themselves.  Here are the current standings with AP rankings in parentheses:

(9) Kentucky:  5-1, 7-1
(3) Georgia:  4-1, 6-1
(10) Alabama:  4-2, 6-2
(15)  Louisiana St:  3-2, 6-2
(16)  Tennessee:  3-2, 6-2
(17) Florida:  3-2, 5-2
(12) Mississippi:  3-2, 5-2
Missouri:  2-2, 5-2
(11) Texas:  2-2, 5-2
Oklahoma:  2-2, 4-3
Auburn:  2-3, 4-3
Mississippi St:  2-3, 4-3
S. Carolina:  2-3, 4-3
Arkansas:  1-3, 3-4
Texas A & M:  1-4, 4-4
Vanderbilt:  0-5, 3-5

The Cats have a loss to Alabama, and SEC wins over Texas A & M, South Carolina, Louisiana St., Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt.  They have a bye this week, and then they head to Knoxville on November 7 for the most important game any UK team has played in my lifetime.