Month of MLB: Day Eight

Yesterday was the first time I've really watched the Rays, and it struck me that they are really a sort of Moneyball team in reverse.  The traditional Moneyball insight was that you wanted a lineup of guys who bat .250 and mash about 25 homers per year.  And then, those guys would go up to the plate and swing for the fences.  Ideally, you'd hit a couple of three-run homers, and that would win the game.  It was brilliant insight, and for most part it has worked.  The Dodgers, Braves, and Astros have all won recent World Series using this model.  And, of course, the Yankees use it as well -- although it hasn't worked as well for them.

But, of course, Bill James's best insight was not that you should play baseball in a certain type of manner.  His best insight is that some players are undervalued -- and other players are overvalued -- because GM's build their lineups in a certain way.  Greg Luzinski may have been undervalued in the 1970's, but he would not be so today -- that's the type of player everyone wants.  On the other hand, what about a player like Tommy Herr, who had 5,349 at-bats and only 28 home runs in his career.  Herr's wins above replacement for his career (23.6) was almost as high as Luzinski's (26.3).  But how many people are looking for Tommy Herr's today?

One other thing about the current Moneyball style is that it encourages a fairly, shall we say, stately approach to baseball.  You see a lot of home run trots -- you don't see a lot of Mickey Rivers-type scrambling.

Unless you watch the Rays.  They appear to have bought all the players that the rich teams didn't want, and sure enough, they have a team of quick contact hitters.  They had the fewest strikeouts in baseball, and they turn every trip on the basepaths into an adventure.  And yesterday, they put so much pressure on the Yankees -- who were clearly uncomfortable playing at high speed -- that the Yankees' defense simply collapsed.  The Yankees made four errors and lots of other stumbles, and the Rays dashed to an easy 5-2 win.  I think the Rays are going to win the pennant, and they will be a very tough out in the World Series.

Today's National League games are enormously important.  The Padres fighting for their lives, and the Braves and Dodgers are each playing their biggest game of the year.  These games will go a long way to deciding the National League pennant:

5 PM:  Los Angeles at Atlanta (Fox Sports 1) (series tied 1-1)

8:30 PM:  Milwaukee at San Diego (Fox Sports 1) (Brewers lead 2-0)

U.S. History 1866-1965

This postcard, which just went up on eBay last night for $8, could serve as the whole textbook for a pretty good class at Western ...

Month of MLB: Day Seven

Here's where things stand in the Divisional Series (home teams listed first):

NATIONAL LEAGUE:

(1) Milwaukee v. (4) San Diego (Milwaukee leads 2-0):

10/03:  Milwaukee 3 - 2 San Diego

10/04:  Milwaukee 4 - 3 San Diego

(2) Los Angeles v. (3) Atlanta (series tied 1-1):

10/03:  Los Angeles 5 - 3 Atlanta

10/04:  Los Angeles 2 - 3 Atlanta

AMERICAN LEAGUE

(1) Tampa Bay v. (4) New York (Tampa Bay leads 1-0):

10/03:  Tampa Bay 1 - 0 New York

(2) Cleveland v. (6) Chicago (Chicago leads 1-0):

10/03:  Cleveland 0 - 3 Chicago

The National League teams are traveling today, so we have two AL games (all times Central):

4 PM:  Chicago at Cleveland (TBS)

7 PM:  New York at Tampa Bay (TBS)

The Dodgers have the night off, so I can watch both games without too much anxiety.

Month of MLB: Day Three

Here are yesterday's scores (home team listed first):

Atlanta 3 - 4 Philadelphia (10 innings) (series tied 1-1)

Houston 3 - 7 Chicago White Sox (White Sox win 2-0)

New York Yankees 9 - 2 Boston (Yankees win 2-0)

San Diego 4 - 1 Chicago Cubs (Padres win 2-0)

The Braves/Phillies series has been great, but the other series were pretty much duds.  On the other hand, the White Sox, Yankees, and Padres were clearly the better teams, and the Divisional Series will be better because they are in them.

All four Divisional Series are set to start on Saturday.  Meanwhile, we still have to settle the Braves/Phillies series, which has been excellent.  Here is tonight's schedule:

7 PM Central:  Philadelphia at Atlanta (NBC)

Should be a good one.

Month of MLB: Day Two

So here are the scores from yesterday's Wild Card games (home teams listed first):

Atlanta 5 - 3 Philadelphia (Atlanta leads 1-0)

Houston 3 - 6 Chicago White Sox (Chicago leads 1-0)

New York Yankees 9 - 0 Boston (New York leads 1-0)

San Diego 8 - 0 Chicago Cubs (San Diego leads 1-0)

That Yankees game was closer than the score indicates -- the Yankees blew the game open with five runs in the eighth.  But the only really satisfying game of the day was the Braves/Phillies battle, which was excellent.

The same matchups will all take place at the same times today.  In theory, today could be the end of the Wild Card series -- the series is best two out of three, so every team that won yesterday has a chance to wrap things up today.  If that were to happen, we would have the strongest possible matchups for the Divisional Series, because I believe that every game yesterday was won by the stronger team.