Yesterday was the first time I've really watched the Rays, and it struck me that they are really a sort of Moneyball team in reverse. The traditional Moneyball insight was that you wanted a lineup of guys who bat .250 and mash about 25 homers per year. And then, those guys would go up to the plate and swing for the fences. Ideally, you'd hit a couple of three-run homers, and that would win the game. It was brilliant insight, and for most part it has worked. The Dodgers, Braves, and Astros have all won recent World Series using this model. And, of course, the Yankees use it as well -- although it hasn't worked as well for them.
But, of course, Bill James's best insight was not that you should play baseball in a certain type of manner. His best insight is that some players are undervalued -- and other players are overvalued -- because GM's build their lineups in a certain way. Greg Luzinski may have been undervalued in the 1970's, but he would not be so today -- that's the type of player everyone wants. On the other hand, what about a player like Tommy Herr, who had 5,349 at-bats and only 28 home runs in his career. Herr's wins above replacement for his career (23.6) was almost as high as Luzinski's (26.3). But how many people are looking for Tommy Herr's today?
One other thing about the current Moneyball style is that it encourages a fairly, shall we say, stately approach to baseball. You see a lot of home run trots -- you don't see a lot of Mickey Rivers-type scrambling.
Unless you watch the Rays. They appear to have bought all the players that the rich teams didn't want, and sure enough, they have a team of quick contact hitters. They had the fewest strikeouts in baseball, and they turn every trip on the basepaths into an adventure. And yesterday, they put so much pressure on the Yankees -- who were clearly uncomfortable playing at high speed -- that the Yankees' defense simply collapsed. The Yankees made four errors and lots of other stumbles, and the Rays dashed to an easy 5-2 win. I think the Rays are going to win the pennant, and they will be a very tough out in the World Series.
Today's National League games are enormously important. The Padres fighting for their lives, and the Braves and Dodgers are each playing their biggest game of the year. These games will go a long way to deciding the National League pennant:
5 PM: Los Angeles at Atlanta (Fox Sports 1) (series tied 1-1)
8:30 PM: Milwaukee at San Diego (Fox Sports 1) (Brewers lead 2-0)
