Month of MLB, Day 9

If you get a chance, you should watch one of the videos on the Internet breaking down the wheel play that the Dodgers used to get Nick Castellanos at third in the top of the ninth in Game Two of the Phillies-Dodgers series.  You will recall that Castellanos had just hit a double to make the score L.A. 4, Philly 3.  There was no one out and Castellanos was on second.  At that point, I commented:  "Now the Phillies should win."  In fact, at that moment, the statistical gurus at FanGraphs showed Philly with a 45 percent chance of victory.  I think it's safe to say that throughout my life as a fan, I have always treated a 45 percent chance of losing as a likely loss.  So my instincts were exactly right.  Now at this point, the Phillies decided to bunt Castellanos to third -- but they were thwarted by the Dodgers' wheel play.  Here's what happened:

1.  Before the pitch, Max Muncy (the third baseman) charged home, and Mookie Betts (the shortstop) raced to third.  Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman (the first baseman) also charged home, and Tommy Edman (the second baseman) raced to first.

2.  The bunt came down the third base line toward Muncy.  Muncy scooped up the ball, turned, and fired toward Betts at third.  He had to lead Betts, who was still moving toward the bag.

3.  Betts caught the ball only seconds ahead of Castellanos, who was flying down the basepath.  Because it wasn't a force play, Betts had to tag Castellanos.  In the split second remaining, Betts planted himself at third and tagged Castellanos, whose momentum was so strong that Betts flipped over.

On YouTube, there are some great videos by baseball types breaking down this whole play -- what should Muncy do, what should Betts do, and so forth.  I learned some interesting stuff.  For example, this play rarely comes up -- the Dodgers had only done it once during a game all season.  But Betts insisted they should do it, and when the time came, every member of the Dodgers infield knew exactly what they were supposed to do.  On the other hand, several of the commentators noted that the Dodgers had shown the wheel play on the first pitch, which was a ball.  Some of them said that since the Phillies knew the wheel play was on, they should have called off the bunt and let the batter try to slash the ball up the middle, where there were no defenders.  There were also long and technical conversations about what Castellanos could have done to prevent Betts from beating him to third.

But my favorite observation was when someone pointed out that as soon as the ball was bunted down the third base line, Freddy Freeman started running to second base.  At first, this made no sense to me -- why is the first baseman so eager to get to second base?  Then someone explained that Freeman had to cover second because Edman (the second baseman) was at first -- if Freeman hadn't raced to second, that base would have been unguarded, and the batter could have trotted down to second while the Dodgers were forcing Castellanos at third.  I hadn't even considered that possibility, and I was awed to realize that some old baseball players figured all this out years ago -- probably in the nineteenth century.

Anyway, the wheel play lowered Phillies' chances of victory from 45 percent down to 21 percent.  It was the key play in the whole game, and it's amazing to see how much you can still learn about baseball when you are my age.

Today is the last day of the year where we get four baseball games.  Depending on what happens, it could also be the last day of the Divisional Series.  Here are the games (all times Central):

2:08 P.M.:  Seattle at Detroit (Seattle leads 2-1) (Fox Sports 1)

4:08 P.M.:  Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (Milwaukee leads 2-0) (TBS)

6:08 P.M.:  Toronto at New York Yankees (Toronto leads 2-1) (Fox Sports 1)

8:08 P.M.:  Philadelphia at Los Angeles (Los Angeles leads 2-0) (TBS)