Wednesday, November 19, 2014

TUCFC: 2014 Week 12

Texas Christian defended the TUCFC title with a close road win over a bad Kansas team 34-30. This hurt TCU's chances to make the playoffs. They are off this week but play next Thursday at Texas. Texas is playing much better here toward the end of the season, so it will be interesting to see how that one comes out.

The big story of the week was the Alabama Crimson Tide beating the number one team in the country Mississippi State.  A tough loss for Mississippi State but a huge win for Alabama who still has to play Western Carolina and then Auburn.  Auburn is a team who seems to be falling apart, or maybe the SEC East is better than everyone was thinking.  Both Georgia and Missouri won big games over the SEC West this week.

Missouri is an interesting story.  They get no love even though they lead the SEC East, mostly because they have a really bad loss early in the season to Indiana, and then got blown out by Georgia.  But Geogia just blew out Auburn, so you really have to wonder what is going on in the SEC East.  I'm still wondering what would happen to the SEC if Missouri wins the title.  I honestly think at this point the SEC would get left out.

Of course it's one of those seasons where in one way or another everyone looks bad.  Florida State had yet another come from behind victory and as great as they are everyone has to question just how good they are.  They have two interesting games to close out the season, both at home.  First they have Boston College.  BC has had an odd year themselves pulling off a big upset early in the season.  Then FSU closes with Florida at home.  Florida a team in turmoil that stunned Georgia a few weeks back.  Unless FSU really turns things around there is a good chance both those games go down to the wire.

Meanwhile the West is a bit of a mess.  Arizona State got stunned by Oregon State, TCU barely beat Kansas and Texas is suddenly looking like they may be a pretty good team.  While the West is on a bit of a slide Ohio State is making their move.  Two straight top 20 wins has helped to put them in a position to grab a playoff spot.  I actually am starting to think they will get one of the spots.

Games to Watch This Week

North Carolina (5-5) at Duke (8-2)
     People are mistakenly writing off Duke.  If Duke wins out they will take the ACC Coastal Division and play in the ACC championship game for the second straight year.  North Carolina would love to play the spoiler for Duke.

Boston College (6-4) at Florida State (10-0)
     Unless Florida State suddenly changes their ways all of their games seem to be exciting.  Mostly because they tend to spot teams at least 20 points.

USC (7-3) at UCLA (8-2)
     This game could decide the winner of the Pac 12 South division.

Wisconsin (8-2) at Iowa (7-3)
     This game could decide the winner of the Big Ten West.

TUCFC Power Rating
I'm still amazed by the resiliency of the SEC West.  Personally I don't believe that two teams from a single conference will get in, so I think you have to look at the top four from different divisions.  Ohio State is getting closer and closer and I believe if they win out will make the final four for the playoff.

Rank Team Record WP WDiffP LP LDiffP Power
1 Alabama 9-1 829.094 774.488 19.313 45.250 1,539.019
2 Mississippi State 9-1 672.719 664.938 9.500 19.500 1,308.656
3 Oregon 9-1 695.219 612.088 22.250 35.750 1,249.306
4 Florida State 10-0 676.250 564.250 0.000 0.000 1,240.500
5 Mississippi 8-2 704.031 693.425 55.250 150.875 1,191.331
6 Auburn 7-3 743.219 658.800 64.781 201.313 1,135.925
7 Texas Christian 9-1 587.938 566.000 9.344 19.125 1,125.469
8 Ohio State 9-1 674.625 662.100 79.313 151.500 1,105.913
9 Baylor 8-1 526.469 589.363 30.500 78.813 1,006.519
10 Georgia 8-2 700.750 681.550 109.031 274.000 999.269


  1. Everyone should have to put rabbit ears back on their TVs and watch brilliant, exotic USC-UCLA once a year on their snowy ABC affiliates.

  2. I am excited about USC/UCLA and USC/Notre Dame. Those are always two of my favorite games of the year.

  3. I think that if Alabama loses to Western Carolina, Auburn or Missouri, and Mississippi State goes 11-1, then I think Mississippi State will get a spot in the Final Four. Otherwise I think MSU is out.

  4. I think three of the Final Four are pretty easy to pick:

    1. Florida State
    2. Oregon (assuming they win out)
    3. Alabama (assuming they win out)

    The big issue is what the committee will do if they have to choose between an 11-1 Ohio State team and an 11-1 Baylor team. For a long time, I thought they would pick Baylor, but the drums are beating louder and louder for Ohio State.