2016: Jimmy Walker: -14 (Baltusrol G.C., Springfield, N.J.)
2017: Justin Thomas: -8 (Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, N.C.)
2018: Brooks Koepka: -16 (Bellerive C.C., Town and Country, Mo.)
2019: Brooks Koepka: -8 (Bethpage Black Course, Farmingdale, N.Y.)
2020: Collin Morikawa: -13 (TPC Harding Park, San Francisco)
2021: Phil Mickelson: -6 (Kiawah Island Golf Resort, Kiawah Island, S.C.)
2022: Justin Thomas: -5 (Southern Hills, Tulsa, Okla.)
2023: Brooks Koepka: -9 (Oak Hill, East Course, Rochester, N.Y.)
2024: Xander Schauffele: -21 (Valhalla G.C., Louisville, Ky.)
2025: Scottie Scheffler: -11 (Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, N.C.)
This year, the PGA Championship is being held at Aronimink G.C., a lovely old course in the western suburbs of Philadelphia. Aronimink is a classic course, but it has not hosted a major since Gary Player won the PGA there in 1962. The last time the pros game to Aronimink was in 2018, when it hosted the BMW Championship. The pros torched the course -- Keegan Bradley won in a playoff after shooting 20 under par (66+64+66+64 = 260). And most folks expected that type of scoring to happen again.
It has not, however, for two reasons. First, the conditions have been quite breezy this week, making it more difficult than usual for the pros to control the flight of their shots. But even more importantly, whoever makes the pin placements decided to put the pins in locations that are extremely difficult to reach. When the hole is only a few yards from the edge of the green, even the best golfers are discouraged from shooting at the flag.
The two best golfers in the world -- Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy -- have both complained about this setup. Their point is that when you put the flags in such inaccessible locations, you take away many of the the benefits of long driving and iron accuracy. McIlroy further explained that while it's very difficult to make a very low score this week, its not that hard to make a lot of pars -- you just aim for the middle of the green and two-putt. In other words, the course is not separating the truly excellent players from the good players -- which is what the greatest courses do.
We've seen this phenomenon in two recent U.S. Opens -- neither of which was won by McIlroy or Scheffler. In 2023, the National Open went to the Los Angeles C.C., and both Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele opened with 8-under par 62's. Obviously panicked over the potential for such low scores at the National Open, the USGA made it extremely difficult for players to make birdie the rest of the way. The final round was a slog, as Wyndham Clark held off McIlroy and Scheffler as all three men shot even par 70's. McIlroy and Scheffler are plainly better golfers than Clark, but on the day they simply couldn't make the birdies they needed, while Clark was content to play for pars.
Last year, the U.S. Open went to Oakmont, which was set up in such a way that it was extremely difficult to make a good score. Furthermore, the final round was played in a driving rainstorm that created even more challenges. The result was a fairly boring leaderboard, with J.J. Spaun outlasting everyone for the title.
As a young fan, I enjoyed penal golf courses like the U.S. Opens of my youth. But I outgrew that viewpoint. Now I believe that McIlroy is correct, and that the job of a major tournament is to identify the truly great golfer. For example, two years ago, at Valhalla, we were treated to an incredible shootout between Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, and Viktor Hovland -- three of the best players in the world at the time. Schauffele's winning score of 263 was very low, but the element of drama on the last day was far superior to the Sunday slogs at Los Angeles C.C. and Oakmont described above. And we all felt comfortable that Schauffele had truly earned his spot in history.
However, I know that not everyone agrees with me on this point, and certain club members will always be unhappy if the scores at their course are too low. Thus, there will always be tournaments like this one where the Andy Norths of the Tour have a better chance to prevail -- and I'll be watching anyway. If nothing else, I will enjoy seeing a beautiful old golf course, a large and enthusiastic Philly crowd, and what should be a close and tight struggle.
With one round to go, the top of the crowded leaderboard looks like this:
1. Alex Smalley: -6 (67+69+68=204)
T2. Matti Schmid (GER): -4 (69+72+65=206)
T2. Nick Taylor (CAN): -4 (69+72+65=206)
T2. Jon Rahm (ESP): -4 (69+70+67=206)
T2. Aaron Rai (ENG): -4 (70+69+67=206)
T2. Ludvig Aberg (SWE): -4 (72+66+68=206)
T7. Rory McIlroy (NIR): -3 (74+67+66=207)
T7. Xander Schauffele: -3 (68+73+66=207)
T7. Patrick Reed: -3 (68+72+67=207)
T7. Maverick McNealy: -3 (69+67+71=207)
Lots of other folks are also in contention. Justin Rose, Martin Kaymer, Cameron Smith, and Hideki Matsuyama are part of an 11-way tie (!) at 2 under par. Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, and Scottie Scheffler are part of an 8-way tie (!!) at 1 under par. In all, there is a total of 30 men who will tee off today within five shots of the lead, which is almost unheard of. Here are the favorites, listed by odds to win:
Smalley: +480
Rahm: +550
Aberg: +550
McIlroy: +700
Schauffele: +1300
Scheffler: +1600
Taylor: +1800
Rai: +1800
I can't remember the last time a tournament was this wide open going into the last day.
To be fair, that list of recent PGA Tournament champions indicates that the PGA does a pretty good job of identifying the best golfers in the world, so we'll see what happens today.
ReplyDeleteHere we go:
ReplyDelete1. Smalley: -6 (54 holes)
2. Rai (ENG): -5 (55)
T3. Thomas: -4 (69)
T3. Smith (AUS): -4 (60)
T3. McNealy: -4 (56)
T3. Aberg (SWE): -4 (55)
T3. Schmid (GER): -4 (54)
T3. Taylor (CAN): -4 (54)
T3. Rahm (ESP): -4 (54)
A barrage of birdies and we have an update:
ReplyDelete1. Smalley: -6 (54)
T2. Thomas: -5 (70)
T2. Aberg (SWE): -5 (56)
T2. Rai (ENG): -5 (56)
T2. Rahm (ESP): -5 (55)
The wind has died down, and the golfers are firing wedges at the pins.
ReplyDeleteIt won't happen for Scheffler, however. He's 2 under for the tournament with only seven holes left.
ReplyDeleteKoepka is also finished. He's 1 under with eight holes left.
Spieth makes a 40-foot birdie putt on the last hole. He shoots 69+72+70+68=279 (1 under par). That's a pretty good tournament for him.
ReplyDeleteRahm birdies 1 and 2. He's now 6-under par and tied with Smalley for the lead.
ReplyDeleteT1. Rahm (ESP): -6 (56)
ReplyDeleteT1. Smalley: -6 (55)
T3. Thomas: -5 (70)
T3. Aberg (SWE): -5 (56)
T3. Rai (ENG): -5 (56)
Rahm is 31 years old. He won the 2021 U.S. Open and the 2023 Masters, but he has spent the last few years on the LIV Tour, so we haven't seen much of him lately.
ReplyDeleteI found an old map of Aronomink online, and the holes used to all have Native American names. I don't know if that's still true or not, but I'm going to use the old names in this blog.
ReplyDeleteRai bogeys the third hole, known as "Navajo," and he falls back to 4 under.
ReplyDeleteScheffler birdies the 13th hole, known as "Blackfoot," and he moves to 3 under par.
ReplyDeleteKevin Bacon is wearing a very sharp suit in the commercial he is doing for T-Mobile in this tournament. I really like that suit.
ReplyDeleteRahm also bogeys the third hole, and he falls back to 5 under.
ReplyDeleteThomas has a 12-footer for par on the last hole, "Aronomink." He lines it up -- and he MAKES IT! Thomas shoots a 65, and he goes into the clubhouse with 69+69+72+65 = 275 (5 under par). That's the number that everyone else has to meet.
ReplyDelete1. Smalley: -6 (56)
ReplyDeleteT2. Thomas: -5 (72)
T2. Rahm (ESP): -5 (57)
T2. Aberg (SWE): -5 (57)
Scheffler bogeys the 14th hole, "Iroquois," and he falls back to 2 under.
ReplyDeleteScheffler three-putted from 20 feet. From tee to green, he has been great this week -- but he cannot putt these greens.
DeleteTime for a snack break.
ReplyDeleteI'm back, and there have been major changes:
ReplyDelete1. Schmid (GER): -6 (60)
T2. Thomas: -5 (72)
T2. C. Smith (AUS): -5 (66)
T2. N. Taylor (CAN): -5 (60)
Rahm and McIlroy are each 4 under. Scheffler finishes with 67+71+71+69 = 278 (2 under), and he will not defend his title. He played great from tee to green, but missed an enormous number of short putts.
Smalley made a double bogey on 6, known as "Comanche," and he is now 4 under par.
ReplyDelete1. Schmid (GER): -7 (61)
ReplyDeleteT2. Thomas: -5 (72)
T2. C. Smith (AUS): -5 (67)
T2. N. Taylor (CAN): -5 (61)
McIlroy, Schauffele, Rahm, and Smalley are all part of a group at 4 under par.
Smith misses a birdie putt on 14 and remains at 5 under par.
ReplyDeleteKoepka shoots a 74 and finishes at 3 over par for the tournament.
ReplyDeleteMcIlroy's drive on 10, "Cherokee," goes into the rough, and he will have a challenge to save par.
ReplyDeleteAaron Rai eagles the par-5 ninth hole, known as "Kickapoo," and he joins the crowd at 5 under par.
ReplyDeleteMcIlroy's lie in the rough isn't too bad, and his second shot lands safely on the 10th green.
ReplyDelete1. Schmid (GER): -6 (62)
ReplyDeleteT2. Thomas: -5 (72)
T2. C. Smith (AUS): -5 (68)
T2. Rai (ENG): -5 (63)
T2. N. Taylor (CAN): -5 (62)
Smalley bogeys the 8th, "Sitting Bull," and he falls back to 3 under par. His challenge is probably over.
ReplyDeleteRahm birdies the 9th to join the logjam at 5 under par.
ReplyDelete1. Schmid (GER): -6 (62)
ReplyDeleteT2. Thomas: -5 (72)
T2. C. Smith (AUS): -5 (69)
T2. Rai (ENG): -5 (63)
T2. Rahm (ESP): -5 (63)
T2. N. Taylor (CAN): -5 (63)
Rai makes a 10-footer to save par on 10 and remains at 5 under.
ReplyDeleteCam Smith settles for a par on the par-5 16th, "Sioux," and he remains at 5 under par.
ReplyDeleteSmalley birdies 9 to move back to 4 under.
ReplyDeleteRai birdies the 11th hole, "Kiowea," to move into a tie for the lead at 6 under par.
ReplyDeleteT1. Rai (ENG): -6 (65)
ReplyDeleteT1. Schmid (GER): -6 (63)
T3. Thomas: -5 (72)
T3. C. Smith (AUS): -5 (70)
T3. Rahm (ESP): -5 (64)
McIlroy is 4 under through 66 holes. Nick Taylor fell back to 4 under through 64.
With only six holes left, McIlroy comes to the 299-yd par 4 13th hole. His drive soars off to the right, and he will have a difficult pitch for his second shot.
ReplyDeleteSchmid bogeys the 10th hole, "Cherokee," and falls back to 5 under. Rai has the lead to himself.
ReplyDeleteCam Smith bogeys the 17th, "Seneca," and he falls back to 4 under. He must now birdie the last hole or he will be eliminated.
ReplyDeleteMcIlroy bogeys the 13th hole, "Blackfoot," and falls back to 3 under par. His challenge is probably done.
ReplyDeleteMcIlroy BIRDIES the 14th and moves back to 4 under. He's not finished yet!
ReplyDeleteCam Smith finishes at 4 under par 276, and he cannot win.
ReplyDeleteAaron Rai birdies the drivable 13th hole, and he takes solid control of the tournament at 7 under par.
ReplyDeleteBarring a collapse, Aaron Rai should win the PGA Championship:
ReplyDelete1. Rai (ENG): -7 (67)
T2. Thomas: -5 (72)
T2. Rahm (ESP): -5 (66)
T2. Schmid (GER): -5 (66)
I don't think anyone else can get to 7 under on this course.
Rai has one win on the PGA Tour: he won the 2024 Wyndham Championship. He's also won three tournaments on the European Tour.
ReplyDeleteRai puts his tee shot on 14 onto the green, hits a solid lag putt, and taps in for another par. He stays at 7 under. If he makes four more pars, he will win this tournament.
ReplyDeleteHoles 15 and 18 are long par fours. Hole 17 is a long par three. Hole 16 is a pretty easy par five. All Rai needs to do is to keep hitting it down the middle, and he can't lose.
ReplyDeleteRai plays with two gloves, and he has figured out what he needs to do, because he's hitting 3-wood off the tee on the 527-yard par 4 15, known as "Lenape."
ReplyDeleteSchmid birdies the drivable par-4 13th hole, and he moves to 6 under par. If he birdies the par-5 16th, he can catch Rai at 7 under.
ReplyDelete1. Rai (ENG): -7 (68)
ReplyDelete2. Schmid (GER): -6 (67)
T3. Thomas: -5 (72)
T3. Rahm: -5 (68)
Rai pars the 15th, and he moves to the 16th, where he can slam the door with another birdie.
ReplyDeleteMcIlroy settles for a par 5 on 16. He stays at 4 under par.
ReplyDeleteSchmid pars the 14th to stay at 6 under.
ReplyDelete1. Rai (ENG): -7 (69)
ReplyDelete2. Schmid (GER): -6 (68)
T3. Thomas: -5 (72)
T3. Rahm (ESP): -5 (68)
Schmid slices his drive on 15 into a fairway bunker.
ReplyDeleteRai hits a wonderful second shot to set up a makeable eagle on 16. He's going to get to 8 or 9 under.
ReplyDeleteRai for eagle. Lags it up. Taps in to move to 8 under par, and this tournament is over.
ReplyDeleteRai has been brilliant down the stretch. He's currently on pace to shoot a 66, which certainly counts as championship golf on any course.
1. Rai (ENG): -8 (70)
ReplyDelete2. Schmid (GER): -6 (68)
Rai now holes a massive putt -- it must have been at least 50 feet -- on the 17th green for yet another birdie. He's 9-under par, and now he just needs par on the last for a 65. That putt looked very much like the one Spaun holed to finish the U.S. Open last year.
ReplyDeleteHave a day, Aaron Rai!
ReplyDeleteSchmid bogeys the 15th to fall back to 5 under, and Rai has a four-shot lead with one hole left. I don't know if it's true or not, but it certainly feels as though tournaments like this one -- where everyone is bunched together for a long time -- are decided when one golfer gets very hot. That's what happened here.
ReplyDeleteRahm birdies the 16th to move to 6 under, three shots off the lead.
ReplyDeleteMcIlroy shoots a 69 to finish at 4 under par: 74+67+66+69=276 (4 under)
ReplyDeleteRai will be the first non-American to win the PGA since Jason Day in 2015. He will be the first Englishman to win since Jim Barnes in 1919.
ReplyDeleteIf Rai pars the last, he will have played the back nine in 31 shots.
ReplyDeleteHe does play the back nine in 31, plays the last round in 65, and Aaron Rai wins the 2026 PGA Championship. He got better every day:
ReplyDelete70+69+67+65=271 (9 under par)
Smalley eagles the 16th to get to tie Rahm at 6 under par.
ReplyDelete