Cats fall to 5-3 in the SEC and 14-7 overall. They are down to 32 on Ken Pom, who has UK as underdogs in six of their remaining ten games (games where the Cats are favored in bold):
at Arkansas (27 percent chance of a UK victory)
OKLAHOMA (78 percent)
TENNESSEE (53 percent)
at Florida (21 percent)
GEORGIA (64 percent)
at Auburn (33 percent)
at S. Carolina (61 percent)
VANDERBILT (42 percent)
at Texas A & M (39 percent)
FLORIDA (41 percent)
But my guess is that these calculations will change after Saturday. Ken Pom has Arkansas beating UK by 84 to 78, and I don't think the game will be that close. So the Cats will likely fall further in the rankings, which would lower their chances in the remaining games.
Here's my prediction. If Kentucky finishes 9-9 or below in the SEC, I do not think they will be in the NCAA Tournament. And that will have a huge impact on what happens next in Lexington. So every one of these games really matters.
At this point in 2009, the Cats were 5-1 in the SEC and 16-5 overall. At that point, it looked as though Billy Gillespie was likely to make the tournament and survive for another year. He already had road wins over Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama. But the roof fell in after that. UK went 3-7 in its last ten games, ending the regular season on a four-game losing streak. They finished 8-8 in the SEC, and 19-12 overall. They missed the NCAA Tournament, and Gillespie was fired only one season after being named as co-SEC Coach of the Year for the 2007-08 season.
Assuming that Florida beats South Carolina in the last midweek game, the top of the SEC will look like this:
Texas A & M: 6-1
Florida: 6-2
Arkansas: 6-2
Vanderbilt: 5-3
Auburn: 5-3
Kentucky: 5-3
Alabama: 4-3
Tennessee: 4-3
Seven of UK's last ten games are against teams on that list.
On Saturday, Tennessee won at Alabama. Now the Vols lead 66-61 at Georgia with 6 1/2 minutes left. That would be two huge road wins.
ReplyDeleteUGA and UT are tied at 74, and are headed to overtime.
ReplyDeleteSt. John's beats Butler 92-70. That's seven wins in a row for the Johnnies, who are now 9-1 in the Big East and 16-5 overall. They are number 20 on Ken Pom.
ReplyDeleteUT leads 83-80 with 24.5 seconds left, a player for UGA has a wide open three -- and shoots an airball. I've never seen anyone do that against UK.
ReplyDeleteIn Auburn, Auburn beats Texas 88-82.
ReplyDeleteAuburn moves to 5-3; Texas falls to 3-5.
DeleteDown 86-83 with 15 seconds left, UGA hangs onto the ball and eventually drives to the basket for a layup with 0.6 seconds left. I've never seen anyone do that against UK either.
ReplyDeleteSo the Vols win 86-85.
ReplyDeleteUT moves to 4-3; UGA falls to 4-4.
ReplyDeletePope says today that "There's maybe an outside, outside chance that Kam {Williams} could rejoin us at some point this season. We'll see."
ReplyDeleteClassic SEC Rankings on Ken Pom:
ReplyDelete8. Florida: 15-6
12. Vanderbilt: 18-3
17. Alabama: 14-6
20. Tennessee: 14-6
26. Auburn: 14-7
32. Kentucky: 14-7
34. Georgia: 16-5
51. Louisiana St: 13-8
73. Mississippi: 11-9
83. Mississippi St: 11-10
I can just imagine UK playing Alabama in a 3-6 quarterfinal game at the old Jefferson Civic Center in Birmingham.
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