Tuesday, December 2, 2025

Kentucky v. N. Carolina

According to Ken Pom, the Big Blue is favored by 10 points tonight against UNC.  He says that UK has an 80 percent chance of victory, and he expects the final score to be 84-74.  The betting markets have the Cats favored by 6 1/2 points with a total points line of 164 1/2.  That would work out to a UK victory by the score of something like 85-79.

The Cats really need this game.  They are 5-2 with six non-conference games left.  Those non-conference games are as follows:

12/02:  N. CAROLINA
12/05:  Gonzaga (Nashville)
12/09:  N. CAROLINA CENT.
12/13:  INDIANA
12/20:  St. John's (Atlanta)
12/23:  BELLARMINE

UNC-Central is ranked 350 on Ken Pom, and Bellarmine is 290.  Those games won't help UK's resume at all.  That leaves the big four:  UNC at home, the Zags in Nashville, Indiana at home, and St. John's in Atlanta.  If they win all four -- and Ken Pom expects them to do so -- then they will be in a strong position when they go to Tuscaloosa to begin SEC play on January 3.  If they lose to Gonzaga and win the other three, then they'll probably be ranked something like 18 in the AP Poll when SEC play begins.  But if they lose to UNC or Indiana at home, the season will really start to unravel.

UK's all-time record against Carolina is 18-25.  When Coach Cal came to Kentucky, the Wildcats had lost five in a row to the Tar Heels.  He went 8-4 against them.  Here's how other UK coaches did against UNC:

Gillespie:  0-2
Smith:  4-3
Pitino:  0-3
Hall:  1-5
Rupp:  5-6

The struggles of Hall and Pitino meant that UK went from December 9, 1974 to December 2, 2000 -- a period of almost 26 years -- without beating UNC.  Their record against UNC during that period was 0-6, and that included two Elite Eight games.

Tonight is Mark Pope's first chance against the Heels, and we will see how he does.

51 comments:

  1. Kentucky went 2-7 against Coach K's Duke teams.

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  2. Kentucky has gone 4-7 against Tom Izzo's Michigan St. teams, including two losses in the Elite Eight.

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  3. This game won't start until 8:30 PM Central Time, which is absurdly late.

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  4. I will never understand the whole theory about needing someone with local ties to coach your team. Pitino had no ties to Kentucky, Coach K had no ties to Duke, and John Wooden had no ties to UCLA. They all did fine.

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  5. But the Kentucky media folks are all excited about the new football coach in Lexington, and let's hope that they're right.

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  6. Pope is very lucky that he gets to play UNC and Indiana at home. Next season, both the Indiana game and the ACC Challenge game will be on the road.

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  7. The good news for UK is that the SEC isn't looking very good right now. Duke leads Florida 30-21 with 4 minutes left in the first half. Syracuse leads Tennessee 32-30 at the half.

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  8. Duke leads Florida 36-24 at the half. The Devils are good, and you can't really beat them in Durham anyway. But the Gators are not nearly as good as they were last year.

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  9. Final: Michigan St. 71 - 52 Iowa. MSU is really good.

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  10. Final: Pittsburgh 73 - 81 Texas A & M (SEC leads 1-0)

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  11. Final: S. Carolina 83 - 86 Virginia Tech (OT) (1-1)

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  12. Final: Duquesne 79 - 83 William & Mary. The Tribe is 8-2, and ranked 124 on Ken Pom. That's W & M's highest ranking on Ken Pom since 2016.

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  13. Final: Duke 67 - 66 Florida (2-1 for the ACC). Florida looked really good in the second half. I may have underestimated them.

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  14. Final: Syracuse 62 - 60 Tennessee (3-1 for the ACC). The Vols drop to 7-2 overall, and fall to 16 on Ken Pom, after back-to-back losses to Kansas and Syracuse.

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  15. That Duke/Florida game was great. So far, this is shaping up to be a great season for college basketball.

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  16. Final: Wake Forest 68 - 86 Oklahoma (3-2 for the ACC)

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  17. Starters for UK:

    Malachi Moreno, C, 7' 0", 250 lbs., Freshman, Georgetown, KY
    Collin Chandler, G, 6' 5", 205 lbs., Sophomore, Farmington, UT
    Otega Oweh, G, 6' 4", 220 lbs., Senior, Newark, NJ
    Denzel Aberdeen, G, 6' 5", 195 lbs., Orlando, FL
    Kam Williams, G, 6' 8", 205 lbs., Lafayette, LA

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  18. Williams is a Sophomore. Aberdeen is a Senior.

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  19. Halftime: Kentucky 31 - 31 N. Carolina

    Cats are 0-8 from 3-point range.

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  20. So far, in two and one half games against Louisville, Michigan St., and UNC, the Cats have shot 19-72 (.263) from three-point range.

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  21. Kansas 44 - 45 Connecticut (10:14 left in 2d half)

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  22. Kansas 49 - 55 Connecticut (5:33 left in 2d half)

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  23. Kansas 54 - 59 Connecticut (1:52 left in 2d half). Beating the Jayhawks in the Phog is really tough. UConn will be a very tough out in the tournament.

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  24. Kentucky 49 - 44 N. Carolina (11:58 left in 2d half)

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  25. Kansas 56 - 59 Connecticut (23.2 seconds left in 2d half) (Kansas ball) I told you it was tough.

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  26. Final: Kansas 56 - 61 Connecticut. Huge road win for the Huskies. They are great.

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  27. Final: Florida St. 73 - 107 Georgia (3-3). Georgia moves to 8-1 overall and Number 21 on Ken Pom.

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  28. Final: Mississippi 66 - 75 Miami (Fla.) (4-3 for the ACC). Ole Miss has lost three in a row and falls to 53 on Ken Pom.

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  29. Kentucky 56 - 56 N. Carolina (3:47 left in 2d half)c

    Cats now 1-13 from 3-point range

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  30. Kentucky has missed 13 field goals in a row.

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  31. Kentucky 59 - 58 N. Carolina (2:37 left in 2d half)

    Oweh finally made a shot after 10 minutes of missed field goals.

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  32. Kentucky 62 - 61 N. Carolina (1:07 left in 2d half) (Carolina ball) UNC just missed a long three-pointer, but got the rebound and called time.

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  33. Kentucky 64 - 64 N. Carolina (31 seconds left in 2d half) (Carolina ball)

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  34. Kentucky 64 - 66 N. Carolina (12 seconds left in 2d half) (UK ball). Heels get an easy layup to take the lead. The Cats should have the last shot.

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  35. Final: Notre Dame 76 - 71 Missouri (5-3 for the ACC)

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  36. Chandler tries for a reverse layup that is blocked, and for the first time since 2007, UNC will leave Rupp Arena with a victory.

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  37. Cats play Gonzaga on Friday in Nashville.

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  38. Carolina makes a free throw. Chandler tries to throw a halfcourt pass that is intercepted by UNC, and that's your ball game.

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  39. Final: Kentucky 64 - 67 N. Carolina (6-3 ACC)

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  40. Honestly, I don't even blame Pope or the players. I just don't see how anyone could have looked at this roster and thought this team should be ranked in the top 20. To me, it looks as though Pope put together a team that would be very strong in the Sun Belt, but it has no business trying to play against teams from major conferences. These players simply aren't good enough to play at this level. It's not about coaching. It's not about effort. It's not about injuries. These guys just aren't good enough.

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    1. And, of course, the same point applies to Pope. He's a great guy, and in some ways he's a great coach. I think he'd do really well at hundreds of different schools. But putting him in charge of UK could only end in heartbreak. The UK coach must be able to bring in high-end talent. That's non-negotiable. And Pope can't do that.

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    2. Again, not his fault. I'm sure he's done his best. The job's not for everyone.

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  41. Carolina is a disorganized mess, and I don't expect them to have a good year by their standards. But every guy on their team has more talent than his counterpart at UK. If the UNC guys had been coached by Tom Izzo, they would have won this game by 20 points.

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  42. What a mess. Kentucky fans won't want another season of this, but can we possibly trust Barnhart to make another hiring decision?

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  43. Cats fall to 15 on Ken Pom. They are now ranked 359 in "luck."

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  44. One final point: I truly feel bad for the players on UK's team. Imagine reading all these expert reports about how you're a national championship contender -- and none of it was true. Those kids have got to be heartbroken -- and they still have to play 23 more games.

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  45. This was the first game I watched on TV this season; I'd listened to the others on the radio. I'm afraid you're correct about the talent, but we will see.

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  46. Mitch Barnhart has a quality that I've seen in many aristocrats: he has the ability to convince himself that what he wants to be true is actually true.

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  47. He really wanted to believe that Mark Pope could win big at UK. And so he convinced himself that it was so. Everything else flows from that mistake.

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