(1) Connecticut (36-3) v. (2) Purdue (34-4) (8:20 P.M. Central on TBS)
Ken Pom has UConn winning 75 to 72. Vegas, on the other hand, shows UConn has a 6 1/2 point favorite with an over/under of 145 1/2. That would look like UConn winning 76 to 70. Personally, I will be surprised if UConn isn't ahead by at least 10 points when the game ends.
One other point should be made here. In 1989, Michigan beat Seton Hall 80 to 79 in overtime to win it all. That was the last time a team from the Big Ten beat a team from the Big East or the ACC in the final. Here's what has happened since then:
1992: Duke 71, Michigan 51
1993: N. Carolina 77, Michigan 71
2002: Maryland 64, Indiana 52
2005: N. Carolina 75, Illinois 70
2009: N. Carolina 89, Michigan St. 72
2013: Louisville 82, Michigan 76
2015: Duke 68, Wisconsin 63
2018: Villanova 79, Michigan 62
It's sort of the basketball version of the Rose Bowl. But Michigan won the Rose Bowl this year, so we'll see if Purdue can break through in basketball.
Also: no team from Indiana has won the NCAA basketball championship since 1987.
Meanwhile, the folks in Arkansas are saying the Calipari will be the next coach of the Razorbacks. That would be pretty odd after all we just went through, but the whole situation is odd.
ReplyDeleteIt's also funny, given that Arkansas fans have spent the last 15 years telling us that Cal can't coach.
DeleteI don't usually have a lot of sympathy for the UK Athletic Department, but the fact that Barnhart is having to deal with this on the Sunday night before the NCAA Final causes me to have a lot of sympathy for him.
DeleteAfter all, Barnhart just spent a lot of time on the Calipari issue a few weeks ago.
DeleteOn Twitter, the Arkansas fans have already decided that they will get Cal and we will get Chris Beard (from Ole Miss).
DeleteMeanwhile, the Kentucky media is dead silent.
DeleteWait: Matt Jones just tweeted: "Fwiw, no one on the UK side is confirming any of this Calipari stuff yet."
DeleteMatt Jones tweets that there's no buyout if Cal leaves voluntarily.
DeleteJones again: "Until someone on the Kentucky side or Calipari side says he is leaving, I will assume he remains in Lexington. We shall see."
DeleteNow the Arkansas fans have decided that after Cal goes to Arkansas and Beard goes to UK, Will Wade will be the next coach at Ole Miss.
DeleteFor what it's worth, Tim Corbin has won two College World Series at Vandy and Vandy never has to deal with this sort of rumor.
DeleteThe Arkansas fan base appears to be like the UK fan base if it only included people who do not live in Louisville or the Bluegrass.
DeleteSo apparently Cal is going to Arkansas, and UK will be changing coaches for the first time since 2009. Cal's tenure at UK (15 years) is the longest of any UK coach since Adolph Rupp. Cal's four Final Fours are also the most of any UK coach since Adolph Rupp. But Adolph Rupp remains the only UK coach to win more than one national title.
DeleteHe was great, and I will miss him.
DeleteRupp: 876-190 (.823)
ReplyDeleteHall: 297-100 (.748)
Sutton: 88-39 (.693)
Pitino: 219-50 (.814)
Smith: 268-83 (.760)
Gillispie: 40-27 (.597)
Calipari: 387-113 (.774)
Cal's number above was not complete. It should be: 410-122 (.771)
DeleteRupp and Pitino remain alone in the .800 club, and Rupp remains alone in the multiple titles club.
DeleteArkansas under Eric Musselman, with final Ken Pom rankings:
ReplyDelete2020: 20-12 (7-11) (47 in Ken Pom) (no tournament)
2021: 25-7 (13-4) (18) (Elite Eight)
2022: 28-9 (13-5) (18) (Elite Eight)
2023: 22-14 (8-10) (22) (Sweet 16)
2024: 16-17 (6-12) (108) (missed tournament)
Kentucky from 2020 to 2024:
ReplyDelete2020: 25-6 (15-3) (29 in Ken Pom) (no tournament)
2021: 9-16 (8-9) (49) (missed tournament)
2022: 26-8 (14-4) (6) (1st round)
2023: 22-12 (12-6) (27) (2d round)
2024: 23-10 (13-5) (22) (1st round)
By my count, that's a record of 8-3 for Arkansas in the NCAA Tournament, compared to 1-3 for the Big Blue.
ReplyDeleteIn those five seasons, the Cats and Cal went 4-3 against the Hogs and Musselman:
ReplyDelete01/18/20: Arkansas 66 - 73 Kentucky
02/09/21: Kentucky 80 - 81 Arkansas
02/26/22: Arkansas 75 - 73 Kentucky
02/07/23: Kentucky 73 - 88 Arkansas
03/04/23: Arkansas 79 - 88 Kentucky
01/27/24: Arkansas 57 - 63 Kentucky
03/02/24: Kentucky 111 - 102 Arkansas
That first game --- on January 18, 2020 -- was one of my favorite wins ever. Cal got ejected from the game in the second half, and the team rallied from behind to come back and beat Arkansas on the road.
DeleteCal's all-time record against Arkansas while at Kentucky was 13-7. UK's all-time record against Arkansas is 36-14. Since Arkansas joined the SEC, the Cats are 32-14 against them.
DeleteBetween 1950 and 1992, UK's only game against Arkansas was in the 1978 Final Four.
DeleteKentucky is 1-4 all-time against UConn, with three of those losses coming in the NCAA Tournament, and the fourth loss coming in the finals of the Maui Classic.
ReplyDeleteKentucky is 6-2 all-time against Purdue. We haven't played them since December 3, 1997, when Nazr Mohammed had 19 points in 18 minutes to lead the Cats to an 89-75 win over the Boilermakers in Chicago.
ReplyDeleteNext season, Kentucky, Louisville, Western Kentucky, Morehead State, Vanderbilt, and West Virginia will all have new basketball coaches.
ReplyDeleteI have been a Kentucky fan since 1975, and in all that time no one in the Kentucky media has been able to provide us with credible information about what was happening inside the UK athletic department.
ReplyDeleteOK, we still have to finish the 2024 season. Here are the likely starters for Purdue:
ReplyDeleteTrey Kaufman-Renn, F (6' 9", 230 lbs.) (Sophomore) (Sellersburg, Ind.)
Zach Edey, C (7' 4", 300 lbs.) (Senior) (Toronto, Ont., CANADA)
Braden Smith, G (6' 0", 175 lbs.) (Sophomore) (Westfield, Ind.)
Fletcher Loyer, G (6' 4", 180 lbs.) (Sophomore) (Fort Wayne, Ind.)
Lance Jones, G (6' 1", 200 lbs.) (Fifth Year) (Evanston, Ill.)
And here are the likely starters for UConn:
ReplyDeleteAlex Karaban, F (6' 8", 220 lbs.) (Redshirt Sophomore) (Southborough, Mass.)
Donovan Clingan, C (7' 2", 280 lbs.) (Sophomore) (Bristol, Conn.)
Stephon Castle, G (6' 6", 215 lbs.) (Freshman) (Covington, Ga.)
Tristen Newton, G (6' 5", 195 lbs.) (Grad Student) (El Paso, Tex.)
Cam Spencer, G (6' 4", 205 lbs.) (Grad Student) (Davidsonville, Md.)
It's impressive that Iowa's women, and Purdue's men, both reached the finals with teams of Midwesterners.
ReplyDeleteNate Oats puts out a tweet stating that he won't be leaving Alabama.
ReplyDeleteHere's my prediction: Barnhart will either hire: (1) Scott Drew, or (2) someone at the level of Mark Pope.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I think Scott Drew is a better coach than Nate Oats.
DeleteThis is the sixth time since 1999 that UConn has reached the final. They've won every time. Except for the 1999 game against Duke -- which was a cracker -- none of those games has been interesting, and that includes the game against UK in 2014.
ReplyDeleteAmazingly, UConn has won National Championship games against Georgia Tech, Butler, and San Diego State.
ReplyDeleteI've seen UK go to the final seven times. Here's who we've played:
ReplyDeleteUCLA (in John Wooden's last game)
Duke
Syracuse
Arizona
Utah
Kansas
Connecticut
Drew fits UK's pattern. The Cats usually follow a roguish coach with a gentleman.
ReplyDeleteRupp > Hall
Pitino > Smith
Cal > ???
No: Gillispie > Cal
DeleteConnecticut 11 - 9 Purdue (15:04 left in 1st half)
ReplyDeleteTeams just feeling each other out so far. Edey has 4 points. Spencer has 7.
Connecticut 23 - 23 Purdue (6:50 left in 1st half)
ReplyDeleteUConn is doing what I would do -- take away the three-ball and let Clingan guard Edey. So far, Purdue is 0-1 from three-point range -- but Edey has 14 points on 6-8 shooting and 2 free throws. Meanwhile, Clingan has only two points -- but UConn is 3-7 from beyond the arc. Good game so far.
Connecticut 30 - 25 Purdue (3:49 left in 1st half)
ReplyDeleteEdey has 16 points, but the rest of the team is 0-1 from three-point range, and 4-12 from two-point range. The danger for Purdue is that they go five minutes without scoring, and then the game is over.
UConn is playing this exactly right -- when you have the better team, don't let your opponent take three-point shots. That's the only way you can be upset.
DeleteExcellent.
DeleteConnecticut 32 - 30 Purdue (2:09 left in 1st half)
ReplyDeleteBraden Smith finally gets loose and makes a three to pull Purdue within 2, and the Boilermaker fans go nuts. UConn calls time.
Connecticut 36 - 30 Purdue (Halftime)
ReplyDeleteWell, it's not as boring as last year's final. But I just can't see Purdue scoring enough points to beat UConn. Edey has 16 points on 7-12 shooting, but he's not getting to the free throw line the way he usually does. Braden Smith has 9 points and Purdue's only three-pointer. The rest of the team has combined for 5 points.
Here's how Florida won two National Championships in 2006 and 2007:
ReplyDelete03/16/06: Florida 76, S. Alabama 50
03/18/06: Florida 82, Milwaukee 60
03/24/06: Florida 57, Georgetown 53
03/26/06: Florida 75, Villanova 62
04/01/06: Florida 73, George Mason 58
04/03/06: Florida 73, U.C.L.A. 57
03/16/07: Florida 112, Jackson St. 69
03/18/07: Florida 74, Purdue 67
03/23/07: Florida 65, Butler 57
03/25/07: Florida 85, Oregon 77
03/31/07: Florida 76, U.C.L.A. 66
04/02/07: Florida 84, Ohio St. 75
In those games, Florida outscored its opponents 932 to 751.
With one half to go, UConn has outscored its last 12 NCAA opponents (including Purdue) 922 to 671. So they are doing even better than Florida.
ReplyDeleteIn their back-to-back titles, 1991 and 1992 Duke won 12 tournament games in row by a combined score of 991 to 832. UConn's point differential is going to be significantly better than theirs.
ReplyDeleteNevertheless, I would still rank Duke as the best of these three teams. They had to beat 1991 UNLV, Kentucky's unforgettables, and Michigan's Fab Five. Neither Florida nor UConn faced teams of that quality. And I just can't see those Duke teams losing to anyone.
ReplyDeleteI would really love to see this UConn team play the Florida teams from 2006 and 2007. That would be a tremendous game. But for now, I'd give the edge to UConn, which has been even more dominant than Florida's champions. At no point in the last two years has anyone seriously threatened the Huskies.
ReplyDeleteUConn opens the second half with a three-pointer to go up nine, and that should pretty much end the 2023-24 season.
ReplyDeleteUConn leads 43 to 34 with 15:54 left. Edey started off 6-8 from the floor, but is now 7-15. UConn has played him exactly right: don't foul him and don't let him kick out for threes.
ReplyDeleteAgainst Tennessee, Purdue made only 3-15 three-pointers. But Edey went 14 of 22 at the line and finished with 40 points.
ReplyDeleteI rooted for Maryland against Indiana, but in every one of those other games where the Big Ten reached the final, I rooted for the Big Ten -- and they let me down every time.
ReplyDeleteI still think Tennessee should have beaten Purdue. But to be fair to the Vols, they were whistled for 25 fouls compared to only 12 for the Boilers. Purdue shot 33 free throws, while UT shot only 11. That's hard to overcome.
ReplyDeleteOf course, to be fair to Purdue, Tennessee does play an aggressive, physical style of defense that was tailor-made to put Purdue at the line. Remember that those two teams played in November. In that game, Purdue had 48 free throws, Tennessee had 30, and Purdue won by 4.
DeleteAnyway, it wouldn't have made a difference: UT wouldn't beat UConn either.
DeleteWith 9:27 left, UConn leads 56 to 40, and we can all go back to wondering who will coach UK next year. The only interesting question in this game is whether Purdue will get to 60 points.
ReplyDeleteBig year for the Hurleys and the Harbaughs.
ReplyDeleteI love Ken Pom, but Purdue could play UConn 20 times and never get within three points at the end of the game.
ReplyDeletePurdue did get to 60 points. UConn rolls, 75 to 60. This game was even worse than the San Diego State game last year.
ReplyDeleteSo the list of all-time NCAA Champions looks like this:
ReplyDeleteU.C.L.A.: 11
Kentucky: 8
Connecticut: 6
N. Carolina: 6
Duke: 5
Indiana: 5
Here's the top of the all-time wins list:
ReplyDelete1. Kentucky: 2,398-758 (.760)
2. Kansas: 2,393-896 (.728)
3. N. Carolina: 2,372-860 (.734)
So that wraps up (most) of the college sports year, and now we can get ready for the Masters.