Monday, April 29, 2024

2024 NFL Draft Rankings

 OK so here is a fun way to look at the draft.  There are sites like Wide Left that create draft consensus big boards.  Essentially what they do is take a bunch of draft big boards out there in the world and compile them together to make a combined big board.  From something I heard today there is research out there that shows these consensus big boards have consistently outperformed all teams in predicting player performance.  At least when it comes to top 200 talent.  So, one way we can analyze the draft result is to compare the teams draft against the consensus.  But only for picks within the 200 or players ranked in the top 200.  So, for instance, if it is the 189th pick and someone picks a player ranked 250, well that would be a pick that was worth -61 points because the player was picked 61 spots ahead of where they were ranked, and it was a top 200 pick.  A player picked 214th that was ranked 190 would give a team 24 points because he was picked 24 spots past his ranking.  You can gather then that the real value can be gained with the later round picks.  Which makes sense because when I look at the 5-year reviews of drafts, the biggest value comes in who is getting players with real value for their team in the later drafts.  It also means the more picks you have the more value you can add.  Hopefully I'll remember in 5 years' time to come back to this and see if my five-year review matches this one in any way.  

So here are the teams ranked from best draft to worst in terms of value from the Wide Left consensus big board.  

Let's break this down a bit.  The Rams had 7 picks that fit into this exercise.  They got real value with their 217th pick of Arkansas C Beaus Limmer.  He was a consensus 122nd best player in the draft.  That's 95 points of value.  Atlanta meanwhile was just the opposite.  Their 187th and their 197th pick combined for -301 points.   You might say well these are late picks what does it really matter.  If the Rams landed a center who ends up starting for them for 4 years with their 217th pick and Atlanta got two players at 187 and 197 who don't play at all for them, that's gained value and lost value.  

Still, we could just look at the top 100 picks.  

This is interesting because Pittsburgh killed it in the top 100.  All of their top 100 picks were taken after the consensus.  The Cardinals meanwhile were ranked at the bottom in both of these charts.  They had 7 picks in the top 100.  This is supposed to be a very important draft for the Cardinals.  It will be interesting to see in five years just how well or how badly they did in this draft.  


Here is a breakdown of the Washington Football Team's Picks

The first number is the consensus ranking.  The second number is the positional ranking.  Then the pick.  The difference between the pick and the consensus.  Then the total score for Washington.  

You can see in the later rounds they were consistently taking guys who had lower consensus rankings.  


  1. Could you do a breakdown for the Commanders' picks? Their score is terrible, and I'd be interested to know whether any of their picks were good, of whether they were all bad.

  2. There are so many different ways to look at this.

    Not countering anything you have here, but I think I could argue that Eric Fisher by the 2013 Chiefs was the most recent definitely successful No. 1 draft choice. He was a starter for eight seasons with the Chiefs, twice making the Pro Bowl; he started the NFL19 Super Bowl at left tackle, which the Chiefs won, and he was injured in the NFL20 AFC Championship and failed to play in the Super Bowl, which the Chiefs lost.

    1. Peyton Manning was the last number one draft pick to make the Hall of Fame.

    2. I think Joe Burrow (number-1 pick in 2020) should be regarded as a major success. Also, Myles Garrett (number-1 pick in 2017) has been to five Pro Bowls.

  3. According to the Athletic Football show from this morning, the WFT were drafting best athlete on board with their picks. This is usually an indicator of longer term thinking with draft picks as often this is focused on what a player can develop into rather than what they can contribute right now.

  4. The Salisbury Popes of the NCFA consistently built from the ball at scrimmage out--center, quarterback, defensive tackles, defensive ends, guards, tackles and so forth. We won only one league championship, so it obviously wasn't a perfect strategy, but I stand by the thinking.