With only a few weeks left in the season, we have a three-way race for the title in the Classic OVC:
118. Morehead St: 20-7
130. Murray St: 11-16
139. W. Kentucky: 19-7
179. E. Kentucky: 15-11
207. E. Tenn. St: 13-14
216. Austin Peay: 15-13
282. Mid. Tenn St: 11-15
329. Tennessee Tech: 9-18
Meanwhile, here's the Classic SEC:
5. Tennessee: 19-6
6. Alabama: 18-7
7. Auburn: 20-6
21. Kentucky: 18-7
27. Florida: 18-7
35. Mississippi St: 17-8
68. Mississippi: 19-6
78. Louisiana St: 13-12
86. Georgia: 14-11
201. Vanderbilt: 7-18
From 2000 to 2017, Vandy went to the NCAA Tournament eight times and only finished outside the top 80 on five occasions. Since 2018, Vandy hasn't been to the NCAA Tournament at all and has only finished inside the top 80 once. The Dores have had two disastrous coaching hires in a row, and they really need to get the next hire right.
One final point about college basketball: I think UConn is going back-to-back and I don't think it's going to be very close.
Virginia Tech is crushing Virginia 75-39 with 1 minute left. Here's UVA's last 11 seasons. You will be able to see when they finally won it all, and how they've dropped off since:
ReplyDelete2014: 4 on Ken Pom (30-7) (Sweet 16)
2015: 6 (30-4) (Second Round)
2016: 4 (29-8) (Elite Eight)
2017: 12 (23-11) (Second Round)
2018: 2 (31-3) (First Round)
2019: 1 (35-3) (NCAA CHAMPS)
2020: 42 (23-7)
2021: 19 (18-7) (First Round)
2022: 72 (21-14)
2023: 34 (25-8) (First Round)
2024: 53 (20-6)
It's very difficult to keep it going once you've won it all.
2017:
Tech wins 75 to 41.
DeleteNext up, we have AP Number-2 Houston hosting Number-6 Iowa State. On January 9, in Ames, the Cyclones beat the Cougars 57 to 53. For today's game, Ken Pom has Houston winning 69 to 60.
ReplyDeleteHouston looks like a team that's building toward a National Title, but I'm afraid this is UConn's year.
ReplyDeleteSince 1975, only three teams have been to two NCAA Finals without winning the title. Those teams are: Houston (1983 and 1984), Butler (2010 and 2011) and Gonzaga (2017 and 2021).
ReplyDeleteSince 1975, Houston is the only team to reach the Final Four on four different occasions (1982, 1983, 1984, 2021) without winning the National Championship.
ReplyDeleteWith 12 minutes left in the first half, Houston leads 12-4. Yes, it's that kind of game.
ReplyDeleteVirginia falls to number 65 on Ken Pom.
ReplyDeleteHouston beats Iowa State 73 to 65.
ReplyDeleteThe 2023 and 2024 National Champions from UConn are about to tip off in Omaha for a game with Creighton.
ReplyDeleteK-Pom has UConn winning this one 73 to 71.
ReplyDeleteUConn is the best college basketball team since the 2006-07 Florida teams and I literally can't name a single player on the roster. I still think of their coach as Bobby Hurley's little brother. It seems to me like these guys should be more famous than they are.
ReplyDeleteFor the record, here's the UConn lineup:
ReplyDeleteTristen Newton, G, 6' 5", 195 lbs., Grad Student, El Paso, Texas
Cam Spencer, G, 6' 4", 205 lbs., Grad Student, Davidsonville, Md.
Stephon Castle, G, 6' 6", 215 lbs., Freshman, Covington, Ga.
Alex Karaban, F, 6' 8", 220 lbs., Redshirt Sophomore, Southborough, Mass.
Donovan Clingan, C, 7' 2", 280 lbs., Sophomore, Bristol, Conn.
After less than two minutes, UConn leads 7-0.
ReplyDeleteThe Huskies have the nation's longest winning streak at 14. They are 24-2 overall, and 14-1 in the Big East.
ReplyDeleteOn December 1, they lost at Kansas 69 to 65. That was a typical Kansas home-cooking win. On December 20, they lost at Seton Hall 75-60 in their first conference game. They've won everything else. They beat Texas and UNC on neutral courts. They beat Gonzaga by 13. They are 9-2 in what Ken Pom regards as "A" games, 5-0 in "B" games, and 10-0 in other games. Tonight is an "A" game.
ReplyDeleteAfter falling behind early, Creighton has jumped all over UConn. The Blue Jays go 8-15 from 3-point range in the first half, while UConn goes 1-7. At the half, Creighton leads 43 to 29.
ReplyDeleteTennessee wins at Mizzou: 72 to 67. The Tigers fall to 0-13 in the SEC.
ReplyDeleteCreighton has hit 10-17 three-pointers, and now leads 51-33 with 17:24 left.
ReplyDeleteCreighton has hit 11-18 three-pointers, and leads 54-33 with 16:39 left. Creighton looks like one of Pitino's old teams from the 1990's.
ReplyDeleteThe Blue Jays lead 56-39 with 15:03 left.
ReplyDeleteCreighton is now 12-20 from 3-point range, and they lead 64-43 with 12 minutes left. Meanwhile, UConn is 1-8 from 3-point range. I think UConn is really good, but they're not good enough to overcome a 33-point difference from 3-point range.
ReplyDeleteUConn has finally started to play like UConn. The Huskies have gone on an 18-5 run, but they still trail 74-64 with 4 1/2 minutes left.
ReplyDeleteIn the last 10 minutes of the first half and the first 10 minutes of the second half, Creighton outscored UConn 54-27. In the rest of the game, UConn has outscored Creighton 37-20.
ReplyDeleteArkansas goes to College Station and beats the Aggies 78 to 71. That is a terrible loss that may ultimately eliminate Texas A & M from the NCAA's.
ReplyDeleteOn February 10, A & M crushed Tennessee 85 to 69 at home. At that point, the Aggies were 15-8 and 6-4. Since then, they've lost to Vandy, been blown out by Alabama, and now they've lost at home to an Arkansas team that had only won 3 games in the SEC before tonight.
ReplyDeleteA & M is now 6-7 in the SEC, and in real danger of missing the NCAA's.
DeleteYes, Creighton is going to win this game. But I'm still angry at Creighton for blowing their game in the Elite Eight with San Diego State last year. That forced me to sit through two more games with the Aztecs.
ReplyDeleteLast year, San Diego State beat Creighton 57-56 to make the Final Four, and then beat Florida Atlantic 72-71 to make the final game. No prior team had ever won games in the Elite Eight and the Final Four by one point each.
ReplyDeleteOf course, then they got crushed by UConn in the final.
DeleteCreighton closes out the game in style, beating UConn 85 to 66. For the record, I still think UConn is going all the way.
ReplyDeleteWith 15 minutes to go in Tuscaloosa, Florida (8-4) leads Alabama (10-2) 55 to 50.
ReplyDeleteAlabama 54 - 60 Florida (12 minutes left)
ReplyDeleteAlabama 60 - 65 Florida (10 minutes left)
ReplyDeleteAlabama 64 - 72 Florida (8 minutes left)
ReplyDeleteAlabama 70 - 76 Florida (6 minutes left)
ReplyDeleteAlabama 77 - 77 Florida (4 minutes left)
ReplyDeleteAlabama 83 - 83 Florida (1:23 left)
ReplyDeleteDuke blows out Miami (in Miami) 84 to 55, which means that -- for once -- UK fans will get to see an entire UK game on ESPN, despite the 8 P.M. (Central Time) start.
ReplyDeleteAlabama 85 - 85 Florida (16 seconds left)
ReplyDeleteAlabama 85 - 85 Florida (end of regulation)
ReplyDeleteAlabama 90 - 85 Florida (3 minutes left in OT)
ReplyDeleteAlabama 92 - 87 Florida (2:09 left in OT)
ReplyDeleteAlabama 93 - 89 Florida (1:14 left in OT)
ReplyDeleteIn Fairfax, Va., George Mason upsets number-16 Dayton 71 to 62.
ReplyDeleteIt was the first time Mason had ever beaten a ranked opponent at home.
DeleteMason moves up to 92 on Ken Pom, although that is only good enough for fourth place in the Classic Colonial, behind James Madison (58), Richmond (76), and Virginia Commonwealth (88). The Classic Colonial was one of my favorite conferences.
DeleteAlabama 94 - 93 Florida (36 seconds left in OT)
ReplyDeleteAlabama 98 - 93 Florida (Final) (OT). Alabama moves to 11-2, while Florida falls to 8-5.
ReplyDeleteGeorgia goes to Vandy and wins 76 to 64, bringing Vandy fans that much closer to the end of the Jerry Stackhouse era.
ReplyDeleteHow Sports Illustrated would rank the teams if we used its old regional rankings from 1972:
ReplyDeleteEAST: 1. Connecticut (24-3) 2. Villanova (15-11)
MIDWEST: 1. Purdue (23-3) 2. Iowa St. (20-6)
SOUTH: 1. Houston (23-3) 2. Auburn (20-6)
WEST: 1. Arizona (20-5) 2. B.Y.U. (19-7)
Here are two teams:
ReplyDeleteTEAM A:
ranked 9th in offensive efficiency: 120.4
ranked 78th in defensive efficiency: 101.2
ranked 23d overall (+19.24)
TEAM B:
ranked 49th in offensive efficiency: 114.8
ranked 25th in defensive efficiency: 96.7
ranked 30th overall (+18.05)
Which team is better? Well, according to Ken Pom's numbers above, Team A is better. But Team A is 18-8 overall and 8-5 in conference, while Team B is 21-6 overall, 12-4 in conference, and riding an 8-game winning streak. Team B is 4-3 in "A" games, while Team A is 3-6.
Team A, of course, is Kentucky. Team B is Washington State. And the difference is that Washington State wins close games. While UK is 311th in "luck," Washington State is 87th. Here is WSU's record in games decided by 5 points or less:
ReplyDeleteWashington St. 66 - 61 Boise St.
Washington St. 84 - 89 Oregon
Washington St. 73 - 70 Arizona
Washington 87 - 90 Washington St. (OT)
Arizona 74 - 77 Washington St.
That's a record of 4-1, including two wins over Arizona. Meanwhile, the Cats are 2-5, including disastrous losses to Texas A & M, Florida, and LSU.
Your Ken Pom numbers tell how good your team is. But most of the time, your record in close games tells us how your team will be remembered.
DeleteSince 1999, here is a complete list of Kentucky teams that finished in the top 100 in "luck":
ReplyDelete2003: 32-4 (53 in luck)
2004: 27-5 (87 in luck)
2005: 28-6 (94 in luck) (teams with Chuck Hayes tended to win close games)
2010: 35-3 (43 in luck)
2012: 38-2 (86 in luck)
2015: 38-1 (68 in luck)
2019: 30-7 (98 in luck)
Except for the 2004 team, every one of these teams reached the Elite Eight. The 2004 team was a number one seed that won the SEC regular season and conference titles. In short, if you win a lot of close games, you'll probably have a good year.
Those figures for 2003 to 2005 really show what a great player Chuck Hayes was. Here's another Chuck Hayes fact that I love. Look at UK's defense rankings from 2001 to 2007:
Delete2001: 39
2002: 9
2003: 4
2004: 7
2005: 3
2006: 75
2007: 34
Chuck Hayes played for UK from 2002 through 2005.
Murray State is 362 in luck -- dead last. Here's their record in close games:
ReplyDeleteMurray St. 81 - 86 W. Kentucky
UNC Wilmington 83 - 81 Murray St. (OT)
Illinois St. 76 - 72 Murray St.
Austin Peay 53 - 49 Murray St.
Mississippi St. 81 - 85 Murray St.
Murray St. 58 - 60 So. Illinois
Murray St. 59 - 61 Illinois St.
Belmont 69 - 64 Murray St.
Murray St. 73 - 70 Evansville
So. Illinois 72 - 68 Murray St.
The Racers are 1-10 in games decided by five points or less, and 10-7 in all other games. If you take the Murray games and the UK games together, that's a lot of heartache in the Purchase.
Western Kentucky, on the other hand, is 161 in luck -- just above average. Here's their record in close games:
ReplyDeleteMurray St. 81 - 86 W. Kentucky
W. Kentucky 65 - 64 Austin Peay
Cal Baptist 70 - 73 W. Kentucky
W. Kentucky 86 - 84 Abilene Christian
W. Kentucky 70 - 68 Liberty
Sam Houston St. 74 - 78 W. Kentucky
New Mexico St. 70 - 72 W. Kentucky
W. Kentucky 77 - 79 Sam Houston St.
Louisiana Tech 76 - 81 W. Kentucky
That's a record of 6-3 in close games, and 13-4 in other games.
Again, Kentucky is 2-5 in close games, and 16-3 in other games.
WKU's winning streak was broken Saturday at Middle Tennessee State, 74-72, and I'm getting ready to nose around some Hilltopper fan stuff to see how badly we got hosed.
ReplyDeleteWhat a win for UK over Alabama on Saturday, however! I was at WKU all day Saturday, mostly in a conference room with stadium seating and giant projector screens. Once our program was over and all of us parents were just hanging out waiting for our kids, they actually put the UK up on the screens to catch the last 10 minutes or so of the game. It was an odd thing being in a room of people literally on campus in Bowling Green going nuts for Reed Sheppard punching out that steal and then running to the other end to catch the pass back for the big dunk.