Month of MLB: Day 27

No baseball today, so let's talk about why the D-backs have done so well in these playoffs.  In the regular season, the Dodgers won 100 games and the D-backs won only 84.  One big advantage for the Dodgers is that they had a better pitching staff.  Over the course of the season, the Dodgers' pitching staff gave up 131 fewer runs than a team of replacement pitchers would have done.  The D-backs' pitching staff gave up 105 fewer runs.  So the Dodgers had the better pitching staff, right?  There's no question about that.

But look at how the pitching staffs are set up.  Here are the best eight pitchers for the Dodgers, with Wins Above Replacement for each one:

1.  Clayton Kershaw:  3.7

2.  Brusdar Graterol:  2.5

3.  Bobby Miller:  2.1

4.  Ryan Brasier:  1.7

5.  Evan Phillips:  1.6

6.  Dustin May:  1.5

7.  Shelby Miller:  1.5

8.  Ryan Pepiot:  1.3

Now here are the eight best pitchers for the D-backs:

1.  Zac Gallen:  4.4

2.  Merrill Kelly:  3.9

3.  Kevin Ginkel:  1.3

4.  Tommy Henry:  1.1

5.  Drey Jameson:  0.8

6.  Ryan Thompson:  0.7

7.  Andrew Saalfrank:  0.5

8.  Miguel Castro:  0.4

As you can see, the D-backs' staff isn't nearly as deep as the Dodgers' staff.  All eight of the Dodger pitchers had a WAR of at least 1.3; only three of the D-backs reached that level.

But in the playoffs, pitching depth just isn't that important.  You've only got a few games, and you have to win today.  So in game one of the playoffs between Arizona and Los Angeles, when the D-backs sent out Merrill Kelly and the Dodgers countered with Clayton Kershaw, the advantage was with Arizona, not L.A.  And then Kershaw got shelled, and Arizona was up a game.  The next night, the Dodgers came back with Bobby Miller (11-4, 3.76 ERA in 22 starts), who is a pretty good pitcher.  But Arizona had Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47 ERA in 34 starts), who is a much better pitcher.  And Arizona won 4-2.  That set up Game Three.  The Dodgers were out of good starters -- they went with Lance Lynn (13-11, 5.73 ERA), who they had picked up during the season from the White Sox.  His WAR for the season was negative 0.8.  The D-backs had Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72 ERA in 18 starts), a rookie who didn't look much better on paper.  But Pfaadt only had to throw 4 1/3 innings, and then the D-backs could use their best relief pitchers, and that was enough for a 4-2 win.

Now none of this is to say that the D-backs were actually better than the Dodgers.  Over the course of 162 games, that D-backs bullpen would not win enough games to keep pace with Los Angeles.  But in a short series, Arizona had better starting pitching, and that was enough.

What this means is that in the playoffs, you have to be careful about how you use your pitchers.  A team like Arizona or Texas only has so many good innings in its staff, and you have to use them carefully.  That's why Bruce Bochy gave up on Game Two and let the D-backs roll to an easy 9-1 win -- once Arizona went up 4-1 in the 7th, there was no point in wasting any good Texas pitchers.  And this helps to explain why we have so many blowouts in the playoffs -- if you're going to lose anyway, you may as well lose by 10 runs and save your good arms for the next game.

Again, I want to emphasize that I don't think any of this is fair.  I think it's very likely, for example, that under the current format, the 1977 Reds (with Tom Seaver, Pete Rose, and Joe Morgan) could have rolled through the playoffs, beating both the Dodgers and the Yankees.  But that would not have been fair -- the Dodgers were the better team over the course of the full season.  On the other hand, that outcome would not have been random -- the Reds' stars were better than the Dodgers' stars, which is why so many of them are in the Hall of Fame.

So if MLB continues to stick with this format, I think you'll see the value of second-tier pitchers collapse.  You're much better off having two aces, three really good relievers, and five replacement level players.  Similarly, I'd rather have a lineup with a few hot stars (like last year's Phillies or the 2019 Nats) than a lineup with a bunch of guys who can beat up on mediocre pitching, but can't get it done against an ace.