Saturday, November 13, 2021

Ken Pom Rates College Basketball Programs from 1997 through 2021

According to Ken Pomeroy, here are the top 20 programs in College Basketball from 1997 through 2021 (a total of 25 seasons):

1.  Duke (3 titles, 5 final fours)
2.  Kentucky (2, 6)
3.  Kansas (1, 5)
4.  N. Carolina (3, 8)
5.  Michigan St. (1, 8)
6.  Gonzaga (0, 2)
7.  Arizona (1, 2)
8.  Villanova (2, 3)
9.  Florida (2, 4)
10.  Louisville (1, 3)
11.  Texas (0, 1)
12.  Ohio St. (0, 3)
13.  Michigan (0, 2)
14.  U.C.L.A. (0, 4)
15.  Wisconsin (0, 3)
16.  Connecticut (4, 5)
17.  Maryland (1, 2)
18.  Virginia (1, 1)
19.  Oregon (0, 1)
20.  Syracuse (1, 3)

Western Kentucky is ranked number 105, with 7 tournament appearances and 1 Sweet 16 (2008).

Southern Illinois is ranked number 112, with 6 tournament appearances and 2 Sweet 16's (2002 and 2007).

Murray State is ranked number 116, with 10 tournament appearances and no Sweet 16's.

72 comments:

  1. Gonzaga leads Texas 47-27 at the half. Looks like we'll be seeing the Zags in New Orleans for the Final Four.

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  2. Devin Askew came off the bench for Texas in the first half. He went 0-2 from three-point range, 0-0 from two-point range, and 0-0 from the line.

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  3. Meanwhile, Kansas just went to Austin and beat Texas in football, 57 to 56 in overtime. This isn't a good day for Texas athletics.

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  4. In 1987, I would've guessed it would be more likely to see Indiana than Kentucky or Louisville on this list.

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    1. I'm sure that if we had data showing the 25 seasons from 1972 through 1996, Indiana would be in the top 20. From 1997 through 2021, K-Pom has them ranked number 26, with 1 Final Four and 4 Sweet 16's (2002, 2012, 2013, 2016).

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  5. Purdue is number 21, with 8 Sweet 16's and zero Final Fours.

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  6. Here are the Big 10 teams ahead of Indiana:

    5. Michigan St.
    12. Ohio St.
    13. Michigan
    15. Wisconsin
    17. Maryland
    21. Purdue
    23. Illinois

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    1. Yeah, it's hard to see why UK would want to play a home-and-home series with the eighth-best program in the Big 10.

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  7. Meanwhile, U of L is the third-best program in its conference, with UVA coming up fast.

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  8. Replies
    1. In 2002, UNC went 8-20 and were ranked number 137 in the country.

      In 2003, UNC went 19-16 and were ranked number 54.

      In 2020, UNC went 14-19 and were ranked number 84.

      Those three years pulled them down.

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    2. In 2010, UNC went 20-17 and were number 61.
      In 2013, UNC went 25-11 and were number 32.
      In 2014, UNC went 24-10 and were number 29.

      Those years also pulled them down.

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  9. I wonder if KenPom is docking them for cheating.

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  10. Here's UK over 25 years:

    1997: Rick Pitino: 34-5 (.872)
    1998 to 2007: Tubby Smith: 263-83 (.760)
    2008 to 2009: Billy Gillespie: 40-27 (.597)
    2010 through 2021: John Calipari: 340-94 (.783)
    Total: 677-209 (.764)

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  11. To put those figures in perspective, UK's all time record is 2,328-730-1. That's a winning percentage of (.761). So UK's record over the last 25 years is actually better than it's all-time record, which is amazing.

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  12. UNC has the second-highest winning percentage in history: .735
    KU is third: .727

    So UK over the last 25 years -- even with 2008, 2009, 2013, and 2021 -- has won a very high percentage of its games.

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  13. Back in 2000, I would not have guessed that UK without Pitino would be able to keep pace with Duke, Kansas, and UNC.

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  14. Unfortunately, we will fall behind KU this year in the all-time wins race, and with Bill Self at KU we may not catch those guys for many years. But that's really more a tribute to KU than a complaint about UK.

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  15. KU over the last 25 years:

    1997 to 2003: Roy Williams: 199-45 (.816)
    2004 through 2021: Bill Self: 522-118 (.816)
    Total: 721-163 (.816)

    Give KU a lot of credit: winning 81.6 percent of your games for 25 years is not easy. Adolph Rupp had a winning percentage of .822 over 42 seasons, and KU is almost matching that pace.

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  16. I really thought that KU would drop off after Roy Williams left, and I was wrong.

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  17. UK fans not very excited about this team. They are reporting that the concession stands on the upper floor are closed for tonight's game with Mount St. Mary's.

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  18. I don't think basketball coaches should use COVID as an excuse to stop wearing suits.

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  19. K-Pom has UK winning this game 80-54. After 3 minutes, MSM leads 7-6.

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  20. Kentucky takes an enormous number of shots that, in my opinion, have no chance of going in. There can't be any team in the country that shoots more long two's, or more three's by guys who can't make three's.

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  21. Also, Kentucky is really bad at running the fast break -- I just assume that any runout will end in a turnover.

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  22. Cats up 8-7 with 15:55 left in the first half.

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  23. From 2011 through 2017, UK's offensive efficiency ranged between 117.8 and 122.2 (except, of course, for 2013). Here's their offensive efficiency since then:

    2018: 115.8
    2019: 117.6
    2020: 112.7
    2021: 108.0
    2022: 111.2

    This inefficient offense really sucks the fun out of watching. Every game is a struggle, you can never open up a big lead, and it's not pretty to watch.

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  24. Also, offensive efficiency reflects basketball talent: Can you shoot? Can you hit the open man? Can you avoid turnovers? Any collection of athletes can play good defense if they try hard enough. But to really play basketball, you need guys who can pass, dribble, and shoot. That's what UK has missed ever since Malik Monk and D'Aaron Fox left. (Except for 2019.)

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  25. Cats up 14-11 with 12:44 left in the first half. The Mount opened the season at Villanova, which beat them 91-51.

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  26. Cats up 14-11 with 12 minutes left in the first half.

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  27. See, Keion Brooks just shot a 12-foot jump shot. He can't make that shot. I know it. The defense knows it. Everyone knows it. Why does he take it?

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  28. Meanwhile, here are the top four teams in the college football playoff rankings:

    1. Georgia
    2. Alabama
    3. Oregon
    4. Ohio State

    Cincinnati still number 5.

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  29. Someone pointed out that Calipari is wearing a pullover with the old UK logo, before they went to the broken K that they have now. Good for him. I really dislike the broken K.

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  30. Cats up 25-20 with 7:59 in the half. Tshiebwe has 12 points and 3 rebounds. Washington has 7 points and 1 assist.

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  31. For the second game in a row, a fan has hit the half-court shot to win $10,000 at UK.

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  32. Cats playing good defense, but can't score. Lead 27-20 with 5:22 left.

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  33. Cats finally score, but MSM comes back with a 3. UK leads 29-23, and then Brooks bonks another jump shot. MSM scores again, and now it's 29-25 with 4:02 left. UK calls time.

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  34. Cats had a real chance to blow it open, as MSM went over two minutes without a point. UK built a 9-point lead, but then MSM scored five points in about 30 seconds.

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  35. Coming into tonight, Brooks had taken 234 two-point shots, and made only 118 of them, and most of those 118 have to be layups and dunks. He's a terrible outside shooter. For his career, he's 13-54 from three-point range, for a percentage of .241. They have to stop him from taking jump shots.

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  36. UK comes out of the timeout, and Dontaie Allen tries a three-pointer. It's an air ball.

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  37. But then Allen makes a two-point jump shot, and then he passes to Tshiebwe for a dunk. Cats up 33-25 with 2:08 left. They appear to have a runout, but Washington dribbles the ball out of bounds.

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  38. Cats play good defense in the last two minutes and go into the half with a 38-27 lead.

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  39. Tshiebwe had 14 points and 7 rebounds.
    Washington had 12 points and 2 assists.

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  40. 1st quarter: UK outscored MSM 19-15.
    2d quarter: UK outscored MSM 19-12.

    The Cats are playing hard and are playing good defense. I think that if this offense is really going to work, they have to make a lot of three's.

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  41. Cats come out with Wheeler scoring on a drive, and then Wheeler throwing to Tshiebwe for a dunk. Cats now up 42-27 and MSM calls time with 19:17 left.

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  42. The timeout does no good -- the Cats keep pressing MSM all over the floor, and attacking the basket at the other end. They open the half with a 13-0 run before MSM finally hits a three. With 15:41 left, UK leads 51-30. That was quite nice.

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  43. Cats go on another big run, now lead 61-32 with 13:09 left. Now I can see what they're supposed to do. They've got Wheeler, Tshiebwe, and Brooks all attacking the basket, and they have been getting a lot of layups and put backs as the MSM defense is spread too thin to cover everyone. Wheeler is really beating his man off the dribble, and that's breaking everything down.

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  44. And then they had a play where Wheeler drove into the lane, drew the defense, and then passed back out to Kellen Grady, who nailed a three. Beautiful stuff. Cats up 68-37 with 10:41 left.

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  45. In the third quarter, the Cats outscores MSM 30-10. UK leads 68-37 with 10 minutes left.

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  46. And now, as Cawood would say, the Cats are getting sloppy. They waste a whole bunch of possessions, but keep playing good defense. UK leads 68-39 with 7:48 left.

    Tshiebwe: 22 points, 14 rebounds
    Washington: 14 points, 3 assists, 2 rebounds
    Wheeler: 12 points, 8 assists

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  47. K-Pom's prediction of 80-54 is looking pretty good right now.

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  48. Cats have basically stopped playing, which won't please the folks who thought they would win by 24 1/2 points. MSM living at the line now. They trail 70-45 with 4:34 left. Cats have scored 2 points in the last 6 minutes of play.

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  49. So the Cats won't get to 80. But MSM may get to 54. They hit a three and it's now 70-48 with 3:50 to go.

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  50. Cats lead 72-48 with 3:33 left. They were number 18 on Ken Pom when this game started, and this result probably won't move them very much.

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  51. On Twitter, they are saying that someone bet $220,000 on UK to cover the 24 1/2 points. I'm pretty sure that money is lost.

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  52. Cats commit two turnovers and another foul. UK leads 72-50 with 2:39 left.

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  53. Washington hits a jumper to make it 74-50 with 2:22 left.

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  54. MSM goes back to the line, makes 1 of 2. The Mount has shot 17 free throws; UK has four. UK leads 74-51 with 2:05 left.

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  55. UK gets two free throws to lead 76-51 with two minutes left.

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  56. Calipari has the bench in now, and the bench almost never scores. They do commit fouls, however, and MSM makes two more free throws. The Cats lead 76-53 with 1:14 left, and that guy's $220,000 is as good as gone.

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  57. Yep, there's a turnover and a foul. MSM goes back to the line, but misses them both.

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  58. The Cats commit another turnover, but MSM gives it back. With 42.2 seconds left, UK is fouled. Zan Payne goes to the line. He makes the first one. He makes the second one. UK leads 78-53 with 40 seconds left.

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  59. And then the Cats steal the ball! They go the length of the floor and make a layup. UK leads 80-53. MSM comes back, misses a three, and makes a two. Final score: Kentucky 80, Mount St. Mary's 55. Cats by 25. Unbelievable.

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    1. Yes, the alleged guy with the $220,000 on UK at 24 1/2 points won that bet, if he exists and if that really happened. But a lot of folks bet on UK at 25 1/2, and they lost.

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  60. Don't mess with Vegas, kids. And don't mess with Ken Pomeroy. He missed the final score by one point.

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  61. So the Cats will stay at around 17 or 18 on Ken Pom. He has them going 11-7 in the SEC and 21-10 overall, which will cause a lot of stress in Kentucky. Next up is Ohio, and K-Pom is picking UK by 80 to 68.

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  62. UK is now 2-1. That puts them over .500 for the first time since November 29, 2020, when they lost their second game of the year to Richmond.

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  63. I LOVE WINNING!!! IT'S SO MUCH BETTER THAN LOSING!!!

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  64. Here's how recent Cal teams have done against their K-Pom ratings once conference play started:

    2016: Started conference play at 15, ended at 11.
    2017: Started conference play at 4, ended at 8
    2018: Started conference play at 16, ended at 22
    2019: Started conference play at 13, ended at 9
    2020: Started conference play at 15, ended at 29

    I'm not doing 2021, since it was a fluky year. The point is that whatever you are at the end of non-conference play, that's pretty close to how you end up.

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  65. Oscar Tschiebwe has his third double-double in a row, and is fourth in the country in the Ken Pom Player of the Year Standings.

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  66. Prior Ken Pom Players of the Year:

    2011: Jared Sullinger, Ohio St.
    2012: Draymond Green, Michigan St.
    2013: Russ Smith, Louisville
    2014: Russ Smith, Louisville
    2015: Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin
    2016: Brice Johnson, N. Carolina
    2017: Josh Hart, Villanova
    2018: Trae Young, Oklahoma
    2019: Jarrett Culver, Texas Tech
    2020: Luka Garza, Iowa
    2021: Drew Timme, Gonzaga

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