Wednesday, October 27, 2021

World Series: Game One

The record books show that Atlanta finished this season with a record of 88-73, one of the worst records ever for a team that won the National League.  But the record books are misleading.  Here's what happened.  On August 1, the Braves lost 2-1 to Milwaukee in their 107th game of the year.  At that point, the Braves had a record of 52-55, and were in third place in the NL East -- five games behind the first-place Mets.  Also, their best player -- Ronald Acuna, Jr. -- was out for the year.  But the Braves had recently made some big changes -- they decided to buy just as other teams were giving up.  Atlanta picked up Joc Pederson from the Cubs.  They picked up Jorge Soler from the Royals.  They picked up Eddie Rosario from the Indians.  And they got Adam Duvall from the Marlins.  None of those guys played for Atlanta for most of the season.  But last night Soler batted first, Rosario batted fifth, Duvall batted sixth, and Pederson batted eighth.  In effect, the Braves had not merely replaced Acuna -- they had given themselves a whole new outfield.

And this version of the Braves is much better than the version that went 52-55 over the first four months of the season.  From August 2 until the end of the season, the Braves had a record of 36-18.  They won 12 of their last 14 games.  Then, after losing their first playoff game against Milwaukee, they won seven of their next nine to whip the Brewers and Dodgers.  They are currently a very dangerous, red-hot team.

Interestingly, the Cardinals almost pulled off this same trick.  At the trade deadline, St. Louis picked up two veteran left-handed pitchers:  Jon Lester and J.A. Happ.  These moves didn't get much attention at the time -- largely because the Cardinals were 53-52 and 9 1/2 games out of first place on August 1.  But Lester went 4-1 for St. Louis, while Happ went 5-2.  The Cardinals went 37-20 down the stretch, including a 17-game winning streak.  They were too far behind Milwaukee to win the division, but they ran away with the second wild card -- and barely lost the Wild Card game to the Dodgers.  Atlanta lost its first playoff game as well, but since the Braves were a division winner, they had a chance to recover -- and they did.  St. Louis didn't get that chance -- if they had, the NL playoffs might have been very different.

So Houston didn't face a rag-tag 88-game winner last night; the Astros were up against a buzz saw that had just seen off the Dodgers in only six games.  And Atlanta jumped all over Houston, taking an early 5-0 lead and cruising to a 6-2 victory.  Atlanta got one piece of really bad news -- the Braves lost starting pitcher Charlie Morton, who went 14-6 this year and has been their busiest pitcher.  You need to get through a lot of innings with Houston, and without Morton the Braves could run out of pitching.

On the other hand, the Astros could run out of games if they don't win tonight.  The Dodgers will tell you how hard it is to come back from a 2-0 deficit against Atlanta.

Tonight's game:

7:08 P.M. Central:  Atlanta at Houston (FOX) (Atlanta leads 1-0).

28 comments:

  1. "Swing For the Ring" is back on FOX 26, KRIV-TV in Houston. I would literally pay money to watch this show with Eric. Our hosts are a guy in a vest with an orange tie with blue stripes (like the Astros), and a woman in a blue dress.

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  2. We start off with clips of Dusty Baker and the Astros commenting on last night's game. They seem pretty calm.

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  3. Headline on Swing for the Ring: "MLB COMMISSIONER: STOP SCANDALIZING THE ASTROS"

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  4. Every time I see the Commissioner of Baseball, I'm reminded of a story in the Onion where the headline was something like "CEO of Radio Shack Doesn't Understand Why Anyone Shops at Radio Shack."

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  5. Now we have a segment called "CATCHING UP WITH BOBBY DYNAMITE." This is the guy who drives the train at Minute Maid Park whenever the Astros hit a home run.

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  6. Next up, a story called "FAITHFUL ASTROS FANS PRAYING FOR GAME 2 WIN." And we're interviewing a local Catholic priest identified as "Father Felix."

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  7. Now we're interviewing Jeff Bagwell, who is throwing out the first pitch tonight. He's wearing a hat that says "Attitude & Effort."

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  8. S for the R tells us that "ROOF IS OPENING AT MINUTE MAID PARK." The Astros think they have a greater home field advantage with the roof closed, but the Commissioner is apparently making them play this game with the roof open. It's 77 degrees and absolutely beautiful in Houston.

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  9. Now we have a segment on "BLINGED-OUT ASTROS GEAR."

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  10. And that's all for Swing for the Ring. Now we're on to the FOX Pre-Game show.

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  11. ESPN Radio tells us that the Astros only played seven games this year with the roof open.

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  12. The Astros haven't played a post-season game with the roof open since Game 4 of the 2005 World Series.

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  13. Jose Altuve doubles to lead off the bottom of the first, advances to third on a fly ball, and scores on another fly ball. Astros lead 1-0.

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    1. Several of my Louisville-and-northeast WKU friends who grew up on the Big Red Machine got into a Facebook conversation during the ALCS in which they compared Altuve to Pete Rose.

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    2. I can see that. Although Rose was generally quite popular, and pretty much everyone hates Altuve.

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  14. In the top of the second, Travis d'Arnaud lines a home run into those little bandbox seats in left field, and the game is tied at 1.

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  15. Houston takes advantage of a barrage of hits and one error to put up four runs in the bottom of the 2d, and the Astros lead 5-1.

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  16. Still 5-1 after 3. According to Fangraphs, Astros have an 88.1 percent chance of winning.

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  17. This game, and the last game, really feel like the type of Braves/Astros games I used to watch back in the 1980's. Not very much drama on either side.

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  18. A two-out single from Freddie Freeman brings home a run, and the Astros lead 5-2 after 4 1/2 innings.

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  19. Astros lead 5-2 after 5. They have an 86.7 percent chance of winning.

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  20. Yesterday's game was dull, and this game is -- if anything -- even more dull. Astros lead 7-2 after 8.

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  21. All I kept hearing going into this World Series was how both of these teams were coached by "old-school managers" who aren't influenced by analytics. Except the Braves, up 2-0, just opened the top of the ninth of Game 3 with no infielder between first and second base (and the Astros promptly put on their leadoff guy with a soft single through the infield and into right field).

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