Saturday, October 19, 2019

ALCS Game Six: Houston v. New York

Here's the thing about baseball -- when the season begins, and for a really long time afterward -- it feels almost infinite.  A major league baseball game plays on almost every day between the beginning of April and the end of September -- a total of 162 games, something that no other sport comes close to approaching.  Almost no one can actually watch his or her favorite team play all of those games.  Even very serious fans rarely see more than half of them.  But most of the time, it's not that big a deal.  After all, there's always another game tomorrow -- and another -- and another.  Like days in the summer.  Or years in your life.

But -- like the summer, and like life -- baseball does come to an end.  October does finally arrive.  The days get shorter (and turn colder for those of us in the Mid-Atlantic region).  The vast majority of teams don't make the playoffs, and they disappear until next spring.  Then four more teams -- proud, successful teams who were usually at the top of the league for months -- are eliminated in the Divisional Series.  Now there are only four teams left.  Then one league finishes its Championship Series, and another set of dreams is broken.  Down to three.  And suddenly you realize:  no matter what happens now, there are no more than nine games left in the season.  In fact, Houston could end the 2019 baseball season in only five more games.

This type of baseball is, to my mind, very different from the endless round of games we see in the summer.  In the summer, there's always time for the cream to rise to the top.  That's not true in the playoffs.  The Dodgers were far and away the best team in the National League this year.  But their manager made some big mistakes in Game Five of their series with Washington, and now the 2019 Dodgers will just be a footnote in the history books.  I don't think this is fair -- if it were up to me, the two teams with the best record in each league would proceed directly to the World Series.  However, it's the system we have, and everyone has to live with it.

For three years now, the Yankees and Astros have been grappling for their place in history.  In 2017, the Astros beat the Yankees four games to three and won their first World Series.  In 2018, both the Yankees and the Astros were done in by an overwhelming Boston team.  And now, the Yankees and Astros are squaring off again.  Whoever wins this series will almost certain beat the Nats and capture the World Championship.  For the Astros, it would be a second title in three years, marking them as a team for the ages.  For the Yankees, it would be a return to the top for the first time in ten years -- not a big deal for most teams, but an eternity for Yankees fans.  The point is that after months and months of waiting, we are finally at the point where something historic is about to be decided.

The Astros have decided to save Gerrit Cole for a potential Game Seven (or Game One of the World Series).  In response, the Yankees are not going to use a regular starter.  Instead, they will "open" the game with Chad Green, who normally comes out of the bullpen, but who opened 15 games for New York during the regular season.  I will be surprised if either starter makes it to the fourth inning.  Giancarlo Stanton went 0 for 3 last night, and is not starting tonight.  Here are the line-ups, with the Yankees' stats showing how much they suffered from injuries all year:

New York Yankees
1.  D.J. LeMahieu, 1B (.327, 26 HR's, 102 RBI's)
2.  Aaron Judge, RF (.272, 27 HR's, 55 RBI's) (only played 102 games due to injury)
3.  Gleyber Torres, 2B (.278, 38 HR's, 90 RBI's)
4.  Aaron Hicks, CF (.235, 12 HR's, 36 RBI's) (only played 59 games due to injury)
5.  Edwin Encarnacion, DH (.249, 13 HR's, 37 RBI's) (only played 44 games due to injury)
6.  Didi Gregorius, SS (.238, 16 HR's, 61 RBI's) (only played 82 games due to injury)
7.  Gary Sanchez, C (.232, 34 HR's, 77 RBI's) (only played 106 games due to injury)
8.  Gio Urshela, 3B (.314, 21 HR's, 74 RBI's)
9.  Brett Gardner, LF (.251, 28 HR's, 74 RBI's)
Pitching:  Chad Green (4-4, ERA of 4.17)

Houston Astros
1.  George Springer, CF (.292, 39 HR's, 96 RBI's)
2.  Jose Altuve, 2B (.298, 31 HR's, 74 RBI's)
3.  Michael Brantley, LF (.311, 22 HR's, 90 RBI's)
4.  Alex Bregman, 3B (.296, 41 HR's, 112 RBI's)
5.  Yuli Gurriel, 1B (.298, 31 HR's, 104 RBI's)
6.  Carlos Correa, SS (.279, 21 HR's, 59 RBI's) (only played 75 games due to injury)
7.  Yordan Alvarez, DH (.313, 27 HR's, 78 RBI's) (only played 87 games)
8.  Martin Maldonado, C (.202, 6 HR's, 10 RBI's) (only played 27 games)
9.  Josh Reddick, RF (.275, 14 HR''s, 56 RBI's)
Pitching:  Brad Peacock (7-6, ERA of 4.12)

66 comments:

  1. I really don't understand all the folks who complain about modern baseball strategy. When I was a kid, I would have given anything if the Dodgers had tried this sort of stuff -- defensive shifts, using relivers as "openers," having a complex plan to use the bullpen in very clever ways. It's like watching a dice game come to real life, and I love the fact that the numbers support exactly the type of nerdy strategy I always wanted to see, and that the "book" that everyone followed for most of the 20th century was just wrong.

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  2. To me, it shows the greatness of baseball that all the right strategic moves are not out there in the open -- that computers have given us insight that guys like Tommy LaSorda didn't have. Even when I was a kid, I always thought there was a lot more to baseball that we didn't know -- and I'm really thrilled to be correct.

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  3. Now I want to see someone go in the other direction, and take advantage of current thinking by building a team that looks like the 1985 Cardinals. Try those shifts against someone like Tommy Herr who can hit the opposite way. Take advantage of the complete games you can get from someone like John Tudor (who threw 14 of them in 1985). Use the speed and bat skills of someone like Willie McGee (who hit .353 with 56 stolen bases in 1985). Some team without much money will eventually try this, and I look forward to seeing if it works.

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  4. In heavy rain in Athens, UK and Georgia are scoreless at the half. It's the first time UK football has played a game without any first-half points since the Cats played IU in 1996. UK won that game 3-0.

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  5. Late in the third quarter, Georgia takes a 7-0 lead on Kentucky.

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  6. For the record, if the Nats have to pull their starter against the Yankees or Astros before the fourth inning, I predict that the Nats will give up at least 12 runs in that game.

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  7. Peacock retires the Yankees 1-2-3 to start the game. After one-half inning, it's the Yankees zero, the Astros coming up to bat.

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  8. Georgia now up 14-0 with two minutes left in the third quarter. I don't expect to make any further comments on that game.

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  9. Jose Altuve, the Joe Morgan of his time, whacks a one-out double to center field. He is a spectacular player.

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  10. Bregman has drawn a two-out walk, and the Astros have runners on first and second. Now it's up to Gurriel.

    Green v. Gurriel (two out, men on first and second):
    Pitch 1: GURRIEL HITS A THREE-RUN HOME RUN

    This whole series has turned on who can hit three-run home runs. Correa put Game Four away with a three-run homer off of Green, and Gurriel may have done the same here.

    Astros 3, Yankees 0

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  11. So far, neither team has mounted a major comeback in this series. But if the Yankees don't come back this time, it's all over for them.

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  12. The Astros get no more runs, but they lead 3-0 after 1. Three-run leads have been golden in this series.

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  13. I'm now switching over to the ESPN Radio Broadcast. I like the Yankees' radio team, and it will be sad to hear them in what is probably their last game of the year. Besides, Dan Shulman calls a great game for ESPN. He's no Jon Miller, but he's really solid.

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  14. Someone on Twitter just said that the Astros are 50-0 when they've had a three-run lead at home this year.

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  15. Signs of life from the Yankees. Gregorius hits a two-out double, and Sanchez singles him home. Astros lead 3-1 with two out in the top of the second.

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  16. Peacock walks Urshela, and that's all for him. Josh James (5-1, ERA of 4.70) enters the game to face Brett Gardner.

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  17. Gardner is called out on strikes, and the Yankees second is over. Houston leads 3-1 going into the bottom of the second.

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  18. The Yankees have brought in J.A. Happ (12-8, ERA of 4.91) to pitch the second. Again, I would have loved to see the Dodgers try this sort of thing back in 1977 -- throw everyone at the other team and see if you can shut them down.

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  19. Happ throws a 1-2-3 second. Astros lead 3-1 after two. Both starters (or "openers") are gone.

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  20. Two out for the Yankees in the third with men on first and second. Encarnacion, who has really struggled, is up:

    James v. Encarnacion:
    Pitch 1: Ball (1-0)
    Pitch 2: Foul (1-1)
    Pitch 3: Called strike (1-2)
    Pitch 4: Ball outside (2-2)
    Pitch 5: Ball high (3-2)
    Pitch 6: Ball outside. Encarnacion walks. Bases loaded.

    That's all for James. Next up is Ryan Pressly (2-3, ERA of 2.32).

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  21. Pressly will face Gregorius with the bases loaded.

    Pressly v. Gregorius
    Pitch 1: Gregorius grounds out to first.

    Terrible AB there. The side is retired. After 2 1/2 innings, Houston still leads 3-1.

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  22. In the bottom of the 3d, Springer gets a lead-off walk, but the rest of Astros do nothing. After three, Houston leads 3-1.

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  23. Pressly was apparently injured on Gregorius's ground out, and he has been replaced by Jose Urquidy (2-1, ERA of 3.95 in 41 innings, mostly as a spot starter). He is Houston's fourth pitcher, and we are in the fourth inning.

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  24. With one out in the fourth, Urshela crushes a home run to right center field, and the Yanks have cut Houston's lead to 3-2.

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  25. Oh, my! Gardner almost ties the game with a long shot down the right field line, but the ball goes foul. Not to be denied, Gardner singles to left and the tying run is on base.

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  26. Feels like a big opportunity for the Yankees -- they really need to take advantage of Urquidy, who seems vulnerable.

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  27. LeMahieu hits a long fly that does no good. Two outs, runner on first. Judge comes up, and he strikes out. So Urquidy gets out of it, but the Yankees have clawed back another run. After 3 1/2 innings, Houston leads 3-2.

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  28. In the bottom of the 4th, the Yankees replace Happ with Luis Cessa (2-1, ERA of 4.11 in 43 games).

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  29. Cessa records a 1-2-3 inning. After 4, Houston leads 3-2.

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  30. Urquidy is rolling now. He mows down the Yankees in order, striking out Hicks and the struggling Encarnacion along the way. After 4 1/2 innings, Houston leads 3-2.

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  31. Maldonado, the Houston catcher, leads off the bottom of the 5th with a bunt(!). But Reddick flies out, and Cessa induces Springer to ground into a 5-4-3 double play. After five, the Astros lead 3-2.

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  32. With one out in the sixth, Sanchez draws a walk and Urshela hits a single. Yankees now have men on first and second. Urquidy still pitching for Houston.

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  33. Gardner lines out to right. Two out. It's all up to LeMahieu. But he won't face Urquidy. The Astros are bringing in Will Harris (4-1, ERA of 1.50 in 68 games).

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  34. Harris is normally the Astros' set-up guy, but they are going for it now. Here we go:

    Harris v. LeMahieu (2 out, men on 1st and 2d)
    Pitch 1: LeMahieu grounds out to short.

    Once again, a Houston pitcher comes in and ends a Yankee threat with one pitch. I thought these guys were supposed to take a lot of pitches.

    After 5 1/2, Houston leads 3-2.

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    1. In the whole year, I don't think I ever saw a Nats' pitcher get out of a jam by throwing only a single pitch. And I don't think that's because the Nats' bullpen isn't good. It's because the batters they face don't normally attack the first pitch against a new pitcher.

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  35. The Yankees bring in Tommy Kahnle (3-2, ERA of 3.67 in 72 games). It's the first time all year that any Yankee pitcher has appeared in three consecutive games. There is enormous pressure on all the Yankee pitchers -- New York cannot afford to fall any further behind.

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  36. Altuve walks to open the sixth, and this is Houston's chance to blow it open.

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  37. Brantley hits the ball exactly where the first baseman would be if he weren't having to hold Altuve on base. Altuve naturally scoots to third. The Astros have men on first and third, there are no outs. I really don't understand why the Yankees decided to use Kahnle for a third consecutive day.

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  38. Bregman grounds out to short, and Altuve scoots home with a big insurance run. Houston leads 4-2.

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  39. Yankees have 6 hits and 2 runs.

    Houston has 4 hits and 4 runs. The Astros are just murder with men on base.

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  40. Kahnle survives further damage, but the Astros have gotten a huge extra run. They lead 4-2, and they are nine outs away from their third pennant.

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  41. Harris will face Judge, Torres, and Hicks in the seventh. Yankees now really running out of outs.

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  42. Judge does his part, leading off with a wicked liner to short that Correa couldn't handle. Yankees have the leadoff runner on first.

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  43. Torres pops up to the first baseman. And then Hicks hits a sinking liner that is caught on a diving play by Brantly. He then jumps up and doubles off Judge, who thought that ball would drop. Inning over. So much for the Yankees 2-3-4 hitters. Six outs to go.

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  44. I can't get over how the Red Sox dominated the Astros last year. I really think this Astros team is one of the best I've seen, and Boston beat them four games to one last year. I can only compare it to 1983, when the Seventy-Sixers swept the showtime Lakers, but failed to stop the Lakers' dynasty.

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    1. Another great comparison. It's so great to have you back at the HP, GoHeath.

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  45. Yankees send out Adam Ottavino (6-5, ERA of 1.93 in 73 games) to pitch the seventh.

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  46. Ottavino retires the Astros 1-2-3. After 7, Houston leads 4-2.

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  47. Joe Smith (1-0, ERA of 1.80 in 28 games) will pitch the eighth.

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  48. With one out, Gregorius lines a single to left. But Sanchez grounds into a 4-6-3 double play, made thanks to very nifty fielding by Altuve and Correa. What a great team the Astros have. All night, they have closed out the Yankees with great pitching and fielding.

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  49. The Astros won 101 games in 2017, 103 games in 2018, and 107 games in 2019. Here are the other teams to do this:

    2002-04 Yankees. This was the Jeter-A Rod version of the Yankees. They weren't nearly as good as this Houston team.

    1997-99 Braves. This was the Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz team. Not nearly as good as Houston.

    1969-71 Orioles. That team was very good. They won three pennants, but only one World Series. On the other hand, the NL was better back then.

    1942-44 Cardinals. Here we have a real comparison. This team was very similar to Houston -- great hitting, but tremendous speed and defense, and lots of pitching. Last team to win the NL three years in a row. They won the series in 42 and 44, so their record will look a lot like Houston's.

    1929-31 Athletics. One of the greatest teams ever. Won three pennants in a row, and won the Series in 1929 and 1930. Probably better than Houston. After they were broken up, the Athletics did not return to the Series for over 40 years.

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  50. Zack Britton (3-1, ERA of 1.91 in 66 games) now pitching for the Yankees.

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  51. It occurs to me that the Yankees should trade Giancarlo Stanton. The Yankees' fans will never forgive him for playing only two games in this series.

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  52. Britton is really struggling. The Astros have loaded the bases with a single and two walks. But Houston has two outs.

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  53. Britton escapes without allowing any runs. Houston will now bring in its closer, Roberto Osuna (4-3, ERA of 2.63 in 66 games, and 38 saves) to clinch the pennant. He will face Urshela, Gardner, and LeMahieu.

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  54. Urshela leads off the Yankees' ninth with a single to left. That's the Yankees' ninth hit of the game. But they have consistently struggled with men on base.

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  55. Gardner strikes out. One down, man on first.

    LeMahieu next.

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  56. Osuna v. LeMahieu
    Pitch 1: Ball (1-0)
    Pitch 2: Swinging strike (1-1)
    Pitch 3: Foul (1-2)
    Pitch 4: Ball outside (2-2)
    Pitch 5: Foul (2-2)
    Pitch 6: Foul (2-2)
    Pitch 7: Foul (2-2). This is the type of AB the Nats usually face.
    Pitch 8: Foul (2-2)
    Pitch 9: Ball inside (3-2)
    Pitch 10: LEMAHIEU HITS A TWO-RUN HOME RUN! THE GAME IS TIED!!!

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  57. Springer made a valiant effort, but the ball just made it into the front row of the right field seats. That was a great at-bat by LeMahieu. He fought off pitch after pitch until he found the pitch he wanted.

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  58. Torres pops up to left, and the inning is over. But the damage has been done. After chasing the Astros all night, the Yankees have finally caught them.

    Unfortunately for me, it's now midnight on the East Coast, so I'm done for the night.

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