Wednesday, December 2, 2015

TUCFC: 2015 Week 14

Texas Christian (20 TUCFC Power Rating) reclaimed the TUCFC this past weekend with a 28-21 win over Baylor (24).  Sad to say the TUCFC champ will not be moving into the college football playoff and so now we wait to see what bowl match-up they get.

This is the first time in a while where there were no major upsets.  Now we get the conference championships and then we get the reveal of the four playoff teams.  Let's look at the playoff situation.
Let's talk about the final four.  Who gets in the best teams or the teams who have earned their way in?  For example how many people believe the when they play to their potential Ohio State is the best team?  I'm raising my hand, how about you?  So who are the best four teams.  Well the TUCFC Power Ratings can help with that let's see who it would put in the final four after week 13.

1. Alabama
2. Stanford
3. Clemson
4. Michigan State

I feel for Stanford.  They lost their opener on the road, a 9am Pacific time kickoff, to a good team Northwestern (10).  Then lost at home to a surging Oregon (12).  If they had won either of those games and only had one loss, I believe they would be in the playoff final four ahead of Oklahoma (5), but as it is I'm not sure they can get in.  They have to hope for Alabama and Clemson both losing, and they need to handle USC (15) to have any shot.  Personally I believe the Power Rating is correct and they are one of the four best teams, but with two losses, even though they are good losses, it can't be overcome without other chaos.  Michigan State is the other team I have in who is currently out, but if they beat Iowa (6) it is assumed they are getting in, and if Iowa beats Michigan State the TUCFC Power Rating would reflect that as well.  So in essence the only top four team the Power Rating lists as a top four team that will likely miss the playoffs is Stanford.

But what about Ohio State (7).  At their best isn't Ohio State the best team.  That may be, but the truth is in sports you have to prove it on the field, and they have not.  Their may be a chance for them to get in, but they will need Clemson, Iowa, Alabama, and Stanford to all lose.

There is a lot of talk about North Carolina (23).  Their TUCFC Power Rating tells you all you need to know about Carolina.  They will not get in, even if they destroy Clemson.  People just don't believe and here is why.  Carolina has a WP rating of 676.063.  That rating reflects the level of competition you have beaten.  Compare that to Ohio State 1,012.656 or Stanford 1,352.531.  They have not beaten anyone of consequence, and a win over Clemson will simply diminish Clemson, I believe, more than it will help elevate North Carolina into the top four.

So it would appear that the teams we are looking at to be in the playoffs are legitimately the best teams.  We have Clemson, Alabama, Iowa, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Stanford.  That's pretty much the list of teams that can get in, and I'll be fine with any four out of that bunch.  It's funny how the Big 10 has risen in power the last two seasons.

TUCFC Power Rating

4Michigan State11-11,362.2501,010.038109.813251.3132,011.163
7Ohio State11-11,012.656908.32534.84457.6251,828.513
9Notre Dame10-2964.688819.93720.59453.9381,710.094
13Louisiana State8-3991.063738.075104.563288.4381,336.138
15Southern California8-41,013.281828.638171.531410.9381,259.450
17Florida State10-2762.094747.337114.188243.7501,151.494
19Oklahoma State10-2656.094626.10034.625116.8751,130.694
20Texas Christian10-2616.938625.71233.938107.1251,101.588
23North Carolina11-1676.063776.963135.625296.8131,020.588

Top KY Team
36Western Kentucky10-2524.594566.86395.313260.250735.894

1 comment:

  1. This is the first time in my lifetime that there are at least three really great coaches in the Big 10, and I think that is making a difference throughout the conference. It reminds me of when Pitino and Nolan Richardson came into SEC basketball in the early 1990's.