Monday, November 9, 2015

TUCFC: 2015 Week 11

Give Northern Illinois (62 TUCFC Power Rating) credit they started the week of upsets with their win over undefeated Toledo (31) on Tuesday night 32-27. 

Let's take a look at the biggest upsets. 

Alabama (2) defeated LSU (7) 30-16.  I think most people assumed Alabama would win, but they didn't just win they easily handled LSU and completely shut down Heisman hopeful Leonard Fournette holding him to 31 yards on 19 carries.  Meanwhile their own running back racked up 210 yards on 38 carries.  That's a nice beating. 

Nebraska (68) upset Michigan State (17) 39-38.  Nebraska has had a weird year.  Coming into week 10 they were sitting just 3-6 but the difference in all six losses totaled only 23 points.  It's sort of fitting that they managed to beat Michigan State then by just 1 point. 

Oklahoma State (10) took the TUCFC from Texas Christian (18) beating them 49-29.  So now we have a new TUCFC holder and Texas Christian will once more be looking in from outside the playoff.  This actually hurts the Big 12 chances of making the playoffs as no one was giving Oklahoma State much respect.  Interesting to see what happens if they win out. 

Navy (19) perhaps pulled off the most damning upset beating Memphis (13) 45-20.  Poor Memphis everything was breaking their way with TCU losing and Michigan State losing, but alas they lost as well.  Houston (20) could still potentially represent the AAC in the playoff but they will have to be very impressive in beating Memphis, Navy and then in the AAC tournament.  It would also mean every major conference would have to go into free fall. 

The SEC also continued to beat itself up with Texas A&M (32) and Mississippi (11) both losing to unranked teams.  This could potentially hurt Alabama down the road, though I'm guessing with their win over LSU they have pretty much locked a spot in the playoff if they win out. 

Let's take a look at the playoff picture.

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4.Ohio State

This is my current prediction.  If Stanford (4) beats Notre Dame (3) then they would get in, assuming they haven't lost any other games and win the Pac 12.  Looks like the Big 12 may once again be on the outside looking in.

Games to Watch This Week

Alabama (8-1) at Mississippi State (7-2)
     We are at a point now where if Alabama (2) loses I feel as though the SEC may be out of the playoff.  So all their games are going to be closely watched at this point. 

Oklahoma (8-1) at Baylor (8-0)
     Baylor (21) really needs to win this game if the Big 12 hopes to have a team in the playoff.

Memphis (8-1) at Houston (9-0)
     Houston (20) needs Baylor and Alabama to lose this week and they need to destroy Memphis (13). 

TUCFC Power Rating

3Notre Dame8-1400.438460.0381.0002.000857.475
5Ohio State9-0331.875466.4130.0000.000798.288
7Louisiana State7-1383.500421.0259.87537.563757.087
10Oklahoma State9-0277.813412.6750.0000.000690.488

Top KY Team
34Western Kentucky8-2158.938310.98834.813141.313293.800

1 comment:

  1. Alabama did look good, but LSU is a great match-up for the Alabama defense, which is much more vulnerable against the pass than the run. In recent years, the Tide secondary has repeatedly been torched in big games, and I'm still not convinced that won't happen again.

    If either Baylor or Oklahoma State goes 12-0, that team will be in the playoff. Oklahoma might get in if they go 11-1 -- it will depend on how everything else plays out.

    Clemson is extraordinarily fortunate to have played Notre Dame and FSU at home.