Monday, October 26, 2015

TUCFC: 2015 Week 9

So far whoever has been highlighted on this weekly update has lost their next game.  Luckily for LSU they have the week off so they can't fall to the curse.  When they return to action, however, it will be the game of the week as they take on Alabama (4 TUCFC Power Rating). 

The big news this last week was Utah (9) losing to USC (28) 42-24.  This was big because it was a big blow for the Pac 12.  At this point Stanford (12) is the only team with a shot to get into the playoff, but they could be falling behind Memphis (8) at this point, especially if Temple (18) beats Notre Dame (11) this weekend. 

The other big blow came to the ACC as Florida State (25) lost to Georgia Tech (42).  Similar to the Pac 12 this puts the ACC into a bad spot trying to get into the playoffs.  Much better to have two teams with a shot to make the playoffs rather than one and right now the ACC is down to Clemson (3). 

Let's take a look at the playoff picture.  Because there are only four spots one of the major conferences will be left out.  In order for a team outside of the major conferences to get in something very unusual has to happen.  For instance let's say Alabama beats LSU, Notre Dame loses to Temple, then beats Stanford.  Michigan beats Ohio State and Ohio State beats Michigan State, then beats Iowa, and Florida State beats Clemson.  Also TCU and Baylor both lose a game not against each other.  All pretty reasonable actually.  If that happens and Memphis goes through undefeated, meaning they have to beat Temple and Houston, then Memphis may actually get into the playoffs.  Anyhow that's how difficult it is for a team outside of the four power conferences to get in.  Not impossible, but not likely either. 

Right now here is how I see the playoff picture looking. 

1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4.Notre Dame

Oh that's right I forgot the major conference rules don't apply to Notre Dame.  And yes I have the Pac 12 and the Big 12 both being left off right now.  That's because it's hard to judge Baylor and TCU when they have played no one.  Their strength of schedule to this point is a joke.  As they start to play tougher opponents like Oklahoma State and each other I believe one of them will likely end up in the top four.  I called this last year and I still believe they are terribly vulnerable to the fact that they play weak schedules and they don't have a conference championship.  That final week everyone else is playing and they are not.  That hurts them a lot.

So this leads us to the games of the week. 

Games to Watch This Week

North Carolina (6-1) at Pittsburgh (6-1)
  Who saw this one coming?  Pittsburgh (33) has come out of nowhere it seems to me, like going back in time, and Carolina (34) has bounced back from all of their woes.  Of course how it is that Carolina still has faced no NCAA sanctions due to the academic scandal there I don't get.  Anyhow it's a Thursday night game and if Pittsburgh shows well it will help the efforts of Clemson. 

Clemson (7-0) at North Carolina State (5-2)
     Clemson (3) meanwhile has their own demons to overcome, like not choking a game up in the regular season like they usually do.  NC State (46) is not very good, so that's the perfect game for Clemson to blow.

Stanford (6-1) at Washington State (5-2)
     Things have setup well for Stanford (12).  They needed WSU (39) to have a good record as it plays well for the playoff picture. 

Notre Dame (6-1) at Temple (7-0)
     I can't stand Notre Dame (11) but this is a big game for the playoff picture.  The rest of the country will be rooting for Temple (18) to win this one and end any talk of Notre Dame making the playoff. 

Oklahoma State (7-0) at Texas Tech (5-3)
     If the Big 12 wants to get a team in the playoff they need Oklahoma State (16) to win this game.

Vanderbilt (3-4) at Houston (7-0)
     I know Vandy (82) isn't very good, but a Houston (20) win continues to build the argument for the AAC champ getting into the playoff. 

TUCFC Power Rating

1Louisiana State7-0210.688314.0500.0000.000524.738
2Ohio State8-0174.344344.3000.0000.000518.644
5Michigan State8-0195.938270.2380.0000.000466.175

Top KY Team
36Western Kentucky6-266.125214.60013.31383.000184.413

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