Wednesday, December 3, 2014

TUCFC: 2014 Week 14

I was way wrong about TCU who completely dominated Texas in their defense of the TUCFC. One more game for TCU during the regular season at home against Iowa State. It would be nice to see TCU get into the playoff because then the title would go with the national champion, but we'll just have to see how this one plays out.

I thought this week we would look at all the conferences.

American Athletic
Memphis (9-3) (7-1)
Central Florida (8-3) (6-1)
Cincinnati (8-3) (6-1)

These three teams can end up tied for the championship.  There is no tie breaker in place.  Next season the American Athletic will have Navy and will be split into two divisions, but this year it is just a flat conference with an uneven schedule and no tie breaker system.  This week Central Florida plays East Carolina (8-3) and Cincinnati plays Houston (7-4).

Florida State (12-0) vs Georgia Tech (10-2)

With Georgia Tech's win over Georgia they now move up to number 8 in the TUCFC power ratings, while Florida State sits at number 2.  There is no reason to no think this game will come down to the wire just as every Florida State game seems to.  If Florida State wins they are in the playoff.  If Georgia Tech wins, well they will need some help to get into the playoff.

Big 12
Baylor (10-1) (7-1)
TCU (10-1) (7-1)
Kansas State (9-2) (7-1)

One of these teams will be winning the Big 12 this weekend.  Baylor and Kansas State play, while TCU plays the worst team in the Conference.  If Baylor wins they are the champ.  If Kansas State wins and TCU wins, then TCU is the champ.  If Kansas State wins and TCU loses then Kansas State is the champ.  I believe if Baylor beats Kansas State and the committee decides to pick a team from the Big 12, it will be Baylor.

Big 10
Ohio State (11-1) vs Wisconsin (10-2)

Ohio State will be playing hurt, but if they can win this game I believe they will make the playoff over Baylor or TCU assuming everyone that is supposed to win does.  I'm not sure Wisconsin can make the playoffs.  For them to make it would require and amazing amount of chaos.

Conference USA
Marshall (11-1) vs Louisiana Tech (8-4)

I'm proud of Western Kentucky for pulling off the big upset against Marshall, but I feel for Marshall.

Northern Illinois (10-2) vs Bowling Green (7-5)

Northern Illinois beat Northwestern, who beat Notre Dame, who almost beat Florida State.  The Mid-American championship will be played Friday night.

Mountain West
Boise State (10-2) vs Fresno State (6-6)

One of those odd circumstances where one division was much stronger than the other.

Pac 12
Oregon (11-1) vs Arizona (10-2)

If Oregon wins they are in the playoff.  Currently the TUCFC power rating has Oregon ranked 3, while Arizona is ranked 11.

Missouri (10-2) vs Alabama (11-1)

If Alabama wins they are in the playoff.  Currently the TUCFC power rating has Alabama number 1, and Missouri 22.

Sun Belt
Georgia Southern (9-3) (8-0)

This conference is over and Georgia Southern is your 2014 champion.

TUCFC Power Rating
This is the playoff four I've been picking for a while.  Now teams just have to win.  The big question will revolve around Ohio State.  According to the Power Rating system, Ohio State has the worst loss between them, Baylor, and TCU, but the best collection of wins.  So assuming they all win out, it will be interesting to see what the playoff committee decides.

Rank Team Record WP WDiffP LP LDiffP Power
1 Alabama 11-1 1,563.625 1,193.000 46.250 110.125 2,600.250
2 Florida State 12-0 1,507.813 969.488 0.000 0.000 2,477.300
3 Oregon 11-1 1,319.875 930.650 36.125 53.875 2,160.525
4 Ohio State 11-1 1,411.000 1,041.775 156.094 279.438 2,017.244
5 Mississippi 9-3 1,373.406 1,058.075 167.938 402.875 1,860.669
6 Mississippi State 10-2 1,131.656 933.638 63.625 153.375 1,848.294
7 Texas Christian 10-1 1,016.281 792.963 15.594 32.563 1,761.088
8 Georgia Tech 10-2 1,385.063 964.688 203.094 398.125 1,748.531
9 Michigan State 10-2 1,004.031 832.000 43.625 86.813 1,705.594
10 Auburn 8-4 1,278.719 945.625 161.844 377.625 1,684.875


  1. Among these games, I am rooting for Kansas State, TCU, Marshall, Ohio State, Boise State, Bowling Green and Alabama. Also, I am glad for Georgia Southern. This was a great roundup, and the best part was seeing the Red Towel.

  2. Latest College Football Playoff Rankings:

    1. Alabama
    2. Oregon
    3. Texas Christian
    4. Florida St.

    5. Ohio St.
    6. Baylor

  3. If Baylor wins the Big 12 I think they would be hard pressed to take TCU over Baylor. And I think if Ohio State beats Wisconsin they will take Ohio State, unless they decide to dock them because they lost their QB.

    The part that I find funny is that people wrote off the Big 10 so early in the season it has continued to hurt Ohio State. But Ohio State has the 3rd best WP, while TCU has the 14th and Baylor has the 29th. WP is measured by giving you points based on who your opponent has beaten, and who they've beaten, etc. So essentially it's a measure of strength of schedule.

  4. Last night, the guys on ESPN Radio were really pushing the notion that if Ohio State blows out Wisconsin, and FSU struggles with Georgia Tech, then the Buckeyes could jump the Noles.

    Personally, I don't see this happening, as it would open the possibility that an undefeated FSU could go to the Orange Bowl and beat Baylor or Mississippi State something like 50-3, thus making the playoffs look absurd. But it's a fun topic for ESPN.