Saturday, February 15, 2014

Sun Belt Update

Western Kentucky has won seven of its last eight, and will be really dangerous if it can make the same sort of rush down the stretch that we've seen from Ray Harper's last two teams.  On the other hand, the nation's angriest fan base should know that Ken Pomeroy has a category called "luck," which measures the gap between what a team has done and what (according to Pomeroy) it should have done.  Pomeroy considers a team "lucky" if it wins a lot of close games.  So far, Western is 8-3 in games decided by less than 5 points, and Pomeroy has them as the fourth-luckiest team in the nation.  (Of course, it's possible that this result is not "luck," but reflects the genius of Ray Harper and the tenacity of his players.  At least, I'm pretty sure that's what they would say in Bowling Green.  We'll have to see.  For the record, UK is 1-5 in games decided by less than five points, and they are 305th in "luck.")

UK fans should take note of the fact that Ryan Harrow is Georgia State's best player and -- according to Ken Pomeroy -- the second-best player in the whole conference.  He still can't shoot from the outside (he's made 28.4 percent of his three-pointers this year).  But he's shooting 81.6 percent from the line, and his assist to turnover ratio is excellent.  Due in large part to his excellent play, Georgia State has won 14 games in a row.

81.  Georgia St:  10-0
167.  W. Kentucky:  9-3
133.  Arkansas St:  7-4
146.  La-Lafayette:  7-5
228.  Ark-Little Rock:  7-6
190.  Tex-Arlington:  5-6
272.  La-Monroe:  4-7
248.  Texas St:  3-7
250.  Troy:  3-8
268.  S. Alabama:  1-10

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