For our MLB Preview, here are the over/under projections from Vegas:
NATIONAL LEAGUE:
Los Angeles: 103 1/2
Atlanta: 101 1/2
Philadelphia: 89 1/2
St. Louis: 84 1/2
Chicago: 83 1/2
Arizona: 83 1/2
San Francisco: 83 1/2
San Diego: 83 1/2
New York: 81 1/2
Cincinnati: 81 1/2
Miami: 77 1/2
Milwaukee: 76 1/2
Pittsburgh: 75 1/2
Washington: 66 1/2
Colorado: 59 1/2
AMERICAN LEAGUE:
Houston: 93 1/2
New York: 90 1/2
Baltimore: 89 1/2
Texas: 88 1/2
Minnesota: 87 1/2
Seattle: 87 1/2
Toronto: 86 1/2
Tampa Bay: 84 1/2
Detroit: 80 1/2
Cleveland: 79 1/2
Boston: 77 1/2
Kansas City: 73 1/2
Los Angeles: 72 1/2
Chicago: 61 1/2
Oakland: 57 1/2
I still haven't really figured out how to deal with the MLB regular season. Except for a few teams in the middle of each league, most games are effectively exhibitions -- the Dodgers and the Braves, for example, are not likely to play any meaningful games before the Playoffs. So what are you watching when the Dodgers are playing the Pirates in the middle of the season? It's not like an NFL Exhibition Game, but it's also not a game that will have any impact on who wins the championship. I still don't know how to feel about those games.
And what do we do with Moneyball? I think the new system has effectively broken the Moneyball approach. When Bill James and the SABR guys started doing their work, a team usually needed to win at least 95 games to make the playoffs, and the statistical revolution was designed to help teams figure out how to get there. But regular season wins aren't that important anymore. last year, for example, the Braves won 104 games and the Phillies won only 90 -- but the Phillies only needed 90 wins to get into the playoffs, and then they quickly eliminated Atlanta for the second year in a row. So what was the point of Atlanta's building a team that could win 104 games? What they needed was a team that could beat the Phillies in a short series -- and those two goals are not the same.
I think, going forward, MLB fans will have to become more like NHL fans. NHL fans have a special love for "playoff hockey," and they understand that seeding is basically meaningless once the hockey playoffs start. MLB fans need to do the same. "Playoff baseball" is completely different from regular season baseball. To win 100 games, you need three and probably four good starting pitchers. To win in the playoffs, you only need two. To win 100 games, you need to beat up on teams with losing records. In the playoffs, there are no teams with losing records.
So here's what I'm planning to try this year. For the first two months, I'll just get a sense of which teams are probably in the playoffs, which teams are certainly going to miss the playoffs, and which teams are in the middle. We should have a good sense of which teams are in which buckets by Memorial Day. Then I'm just going to track the playoff teams for the rest of the season -- just to get to know them, so I'll be ready for the playoffs. And then I'll treat October as MLB month, like I did last year.
Of course, tonight I'll be watching the Sweet Sixteen, and putting thoughts in the comments.
Here is the Opening Day lineup for the Washington Nationals, with 2023 stats:
ReplyDelete1. C.J. Abrams, SS (.245, 18 HR's, 64 RBI's, 47 stolen bases)
2. Lane Thomas, RF (.268, 28 HR's, 86 RBI's, 20 stolen bases)
3. Jesse Winker, LF (.199, 1 HR, 23 RBI's in 61 games for Milwaukee)
4. Joey Meneses, DH (.275, 13 HR's, 89 RBI's)
5. Joey Gallo, 1B (.177, 21 HR's, 40 RBI's in 111 games for Minnesota)
6. Keibert Ruiz, C (.260, 18 HR's, 67 RBI's)
7. Eddie Rosario, CF (.255, 21 HR's, 74 RBI's for Atlanta)
8. Nick Senzel, 3B (.236, 13 HR's, 42 RBI's in 104 games for Cincinnati)
9. Luis Garcia, Jr., 2B (.266, 9 HR's, 50 RBI's)
Pitcher: Josiah Gray: (8-13, 3.91 ERA in 30 starts)
The Nats will be opening the season in Cincinnati this afternoon.
DeleteMeanwhile in Lexington, Adou Thiero has entered the transfer portal. This season, Thiero was 58-110 from two-point range (52.7 percent), 7-22 from three-point range (31.8 percent), and 44-55 from the line (80.0 percent). Against Oakland, he played seven minutes, scoring two points and collecting no rebounds.
ReplyDeleteHere are Ken Pom's picks for tonight's games:
ReplyDeleteEAST REGION:
Connecticut 73 - 65 San Diego St.
Iowa St. 76 - 75 Illinois
WEST REGION:
N. Carolina 86 - 84 Alabama
Arizona 80 - 74 Clemson
Since coming to DC for the 2005 season, the Nats are 8-11 on Opening Day.
ReplyDeleteJack Pilgrim of Kentucky Sports Report states that Thiero is also looking at going to the NBA -- or coming back to UK. So he's keeping all options open for now.
ReplyDeleteReminder of who made the playoffs last year:
ReplyDeleteNATIONAL LEAGUE:
1. Atlanta (NL East)
2. Los Angeles (NL West)
3. Milwaukee (NL Central)
4. Philadelphia (Wild Card)
5. Miami (Wild Card)
6. Arizona (Wild Card) (NL CHAMPION)
AMERICAN LEAGUE:
1. Baltimore (AL East)
2. Houston (AL West)
3. Minnesota (AL Central)
4. Tampa Bay (Wild Card)
5. Texas (Wild Card) (AL CHAMPION) (WORLD CHAMPION)
6. Toronto (Wild Card)
Here are Fangraphs' odds for each team to make the playoffs (in percent):
ReplyDeleteNATIONAL LEAGUE:
Atlanta: 98.5
Los Angeles: 93.4
Philadelphia: 54.1
Arizona: 53.5
St. Louis: 49.4
San Francisco: 43.0
San Diego: 43.0
Chicago: 41.8
Milwaukee: 29.9
New York: 28.6
Miami: 26.0
Cincinnati: 21.6
Pittsburgh: 17.0
Washington: 0.2
Colorado: 0.1
AMERICAN LEAGUE:
Houston: 86.2
New York: 71.7
Minnesota: 64.4
Seattle: 60.0
Tampa Bay: 59.0
Baltimore: 52.4
Toronto: 49.1
Texas: 39.6
Cleveland: 34.2
Detroit: 27.2
Boston: 22.4
Los Angeles: 16.9
Kansas City: 13.9
Oakland: 2.5
Chicago: 0.5
In the top of the first, in Baltimore, Mike Trout (of the Angels) whacks a home run and the season is well and truly started.
ReplyDeleteSince coming to Washington in 2005, the Nats have an all-time regular season record of 1,439 wins and 1,535 losses, for a winning percentage of .484.
ReplyDeleteSince Washington entered the majors in 1901, Washington's three major-league franchises have combined for a record of 6,402 wins and 7,431 losses, for a winning percentage of .463.
If the three Washington franchises were treated as a single franchise, they would have a worse winning percentage than every other MLB franchise other than Miami. The Marlins have an all-time winning percentage of .462.
ReplyDeleteBoth Washington and the Marlins have won two World Series. Washington did it in 1924 and 2019. The Marlins did it in 1997 and 2003.
ReplyDeleteNats come up in the first. The first two batters are out. The third batter hits a clean single, tries for a double, and is thrown out on a play that was not close. And so begins another year of baseball in the Nation's Capital.
ReplyDeleteAfter three innings, the Reds lead the Nats 7 to 0, and that will probably conclude our coverage of the Nats for the year.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, in Houston, the Yankees radio broadcast is still being handled by John Sterling (age 85) and Suzyn Waldman (age 77).
ReplyDeleteThey've got a good game, as the Astros lead the Yankees 4-3 in the bottom of the fifth.
DeleteFor what it's worth, MLB.tv remains the best media deal in all of sports.
ReplyDeleteAnd just when it looked as though the coaching carousel had slowed down, ESPN is reporting that Oklahoma State is targeting Western Kentucky's Steve Lutz to be their new men's basketball coach.
ReplyDeleteThis seems like a bold move for OK State. I like Lutz, but Western was ranked 135 on Ken Pom. When Rick Stansbury was at Western, he had five seasons where Western was ranked higher than 135. Darrin Horn was at Western for five seasons, and his worst final ranking was 118.
DeleteThe Dodgers beat the Cardinals 7 to 1. The Yankees lead the Astros 5-4 with two outs in the ninth after Juan Soto threw out an Astro at the plate. This is like watching a playoff game.
ReplyDeleteYankees win 5-4. That was a great game.
Delete(9) Arizona 8 - 16 Clemson (10:12 left in first half)
ReplyDeleteOK, I'm going with the rematch of last year's title game: UConn v. San Diego State. Let's see if this iteration turns out to be more competitive than last year's matchup.
ReplyDelete(9) Arizona 12 - 24 Clemson (8:25 left in first half)
ReplyDeleteAfter watching UK all year, it is really striking how physical the rest of college basketball is. There's a reason why Cal said that UK's biggest problem was lack of physicality.
ReplyDelete(9) Arizona 20 - 29 Clemson (5:44 left in first half)
ReplyDelete(1) Connecticut 9 - 10 San Diego St. (15:50 left in first half)
I don't think UK would have gotten a single rebound against UConn or SDSU in the first 4:10 of this game.
DeleteBetween 1986 and 1994, here's what Duke did:
ReplyDeleteSeven Final Fours (1986, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 94)
Five National Title Games (1986, 90, 91, 92, 94)
Two National Championships (1991, 1992)
Then, in 1995, Coach K had some health issues and missed most of the season. He was still very, very good after that, but his teams were never as dominant as they were during that initial stretch. And remember: between 1986 and 1994, Grant Hill was his only big-time NBA player. His teams were just solid and smart on both ends of the court. They were like Bobby Knight's teams, except more consistent from year to year.
ReplyDeleteSince that time, Pitino's teams from the 1990's were the only college teams I've seen that came close to matching K's run from 86 to 94, but of course Pitino left -- so we never got to see how that would have played out.
ReplyDeleteWatching UConn today, I realized that this team looks more like the old school Duke teams of the 80's and early 90's than any team I can remember. They just play textbook basketball on both ends of the court, and at the same time they play harder than everyone else.
ReplyDelete(9) Arizona 31 - 37 Clemson (57 seconds left in first half)
ReplyDelete(1) Connecticut 27 - 18 San Diego St. (10:30 left in first half)
Bobby Hurley is the brother who played for Coach K, but Danny Hurley is the one who's teams play like Coach K's teams.
ReplyDelete(9) Arizona 31 - 39 Clemson (halftime)
ReplyDelete(1) Connecticut 29 - 21 San Diego St. (7:45 left in first half)
I don't watch a lot of UConn games for the same reason I didn't watch very many Duke games from 86 to 94 -- they are the team least likely to be upset. What I thought was interesting about tonight's game is that SDSU is one of the few teams that has experienced UConn's intensity and therefore knows how hard you have to play against them. And SDSU has played very well, in my opinion -- better than they did last year against UConn. But even when you play well, the Huskies are very difficult to beat.
ReplyDelete(9) Arizona 31 - 39 Clemson (halftime)
ReplyDelete(1) Connecticut 33 - 28 San Diego St. (3:39 left in first half)
(9) Arizona 42 - 43 Clemson (16:35 left)
ReplyDelete(1) Connecticut 37 - 31 San Diego St. (35 seconds left in first half)
(9) Arizona 43 - 43 Clemson (15:52 left)
ReplyDelete(1) Connecticut 40 - 31 San Diego St. (halftime)
(9) Arizona 58 - 63 Clemson (7:58 left)
ReplyDelete(1) Connecticut 47 - 35 San Diego St. (15:57 left)
Arizona is shooting themselves out of this tournament. The Wildcats are 3-21 from three-point range, and 17-25 from the line. But instead of driving and trying to draw fouls, they're just throwing up three's from all over the place.
ReplyDelete(9) Arizona 58 - 65 Clemson (5:42 left)
(1) Connecticut 47 - 35 San Diego St. (15:57 left)
This Clemson/Arizona game is terrible. The Wildcats are just making one terrible play after another. Clemson isn't very good, but at least they're organized and playing hard. San Diego State -- or for that matter, Texas A & M -- would thrash either of these teams.
ReplyDeleteArizona finally hits a three to pull within 65-61, but then immediately goes down and commits a foul to send Clemson to the line. Just one dumb play after another. I thought the guy at Arizona was supposed to be a great coach.
ReplyDeleteClemson just goes down, stands in a zone, and waits for Arizona to miss three's. Which they do.
ReplyDeleteNeither of these teams realize that most college kids cannot hit a three while moving. You need to spot up.
ReplyDelete(9) Arizona 63 - 66 Clemson (2:23 left)
ReplyDelete(1) Connecticut 55 - 39 San Diego St. (11:35 left)
Arizona, down three with 2:23 left, commits another stupid foul and puts Clemson back on the line. The Tigers go up 68-63.
ReplyDeleteArizona is finally getting the ball inside. They score two baskets and trail 70-67 with 1:18 left.
ReplyDeleteWith 1:06 left and 9 seconds on the shot clock, Clemson calls time. They lead 70 to 67. Meanwhile, UConn is up 15 with 10 minutes to go.
ReplyDeleteClemson comes in from the timeout and runs that inbounds play where the defense doesn't guard the guy heading toward the basket and he gets an easy dunk. That puts the Tigers up 5 with a minute left, and that should do it for Arizona. The Wildcats are the worst-coached team I've seen all year. They have just made one mistake after another down the stretch, and they deserve to be eliminated.
ReplyDeleteArizona FINALLY takes a spot-up three (as opposed to a moving three) and they make it. Now Clemson leads 72 to 70 with 49 seconds left. Tigers call time. Arizona is 5-27 from three-point range in this game.
ReplyDeletePlaying its most important defensive possession of the year, Arizona allows Clemson's guard to dribble through the entire defense, draw the foul, and make the layup. Clemson gets an old-fashioned 3-point play, and they lead 75-70 with 25 seconds to go.
ReplyDeleteArizona scores to make it 75-72, and then the Wildcats give up ANOTHER layup at the other end. Here were Clemson's last three possessions:
ReplyDeleteDunk off the in-bounds play
Old-fashioned three-point play
No one gets back on defense, layup for Clemson
Tigers win 77-72. I don't want to hear anything more about Arizona's coach. If the Wildcats play like this next year in the Big XII, they are in for a long season.
So that puts Carolina in the final four, as they only have to beat Alabama and Clemson. Although, to be fair, Arizona would have had no chance against the Heels.
ReplyDeleteSDSU has finally collapsed. UConn has broken them. The Aztecs have only scored 14 points in the second half, and they trail 71-45 with 4:29 left.
ReplyDeleteA lot of good college basketball teams -- like Clemson and SDSU -- live off of effort. They get every 50-50 ball, grab lots of rebounds, draw lots of fouls. But if a more talented team can match their effort, they don't have enough talent to win. A well-coached team like UConn can't be beaten by trying hard.
ReplyDeleteNo team west of Waco, Texas has won the NCAA Tournament since 1997, when Arizona won in overtime thanks to 41 free throws (compared to 17 for its opponent). With Arizona and SDSU being eliminated, Gonzaga is the last team west of Waco still playing.
ReplyDeleteThink about it. SDSU was eliminated by UConn in the final last year. The Aztecs waited all year for a rematch. And then the Huskies just crushed them. That's how good UConn is.
ReplyDeleteUConn rolls, 82 to 52. They are really good.
ReplyDeleteOK, now we have UNC v. Alabama and Iowa State v. Illinois. Carolina lets you shoot three's, so the Tide has a puncher's chance. But I think, in all seriousness, that Alabama would have to score at least 100 points to win this game. I have no idea what will happen between Iowa State and Illinois, because I tend to ignore Midwestern basketball.
ReplyDelete(5) N. Carolina 31 - 32 (19) Alabama (7:43 left in first half)
ReplyDelete(4) Iowa St. 2 - 11 (10) Illinois (15:52 left in first half)
(5) N. Carolina 46 - 44 (19) Alabama (2:49 left in first half)
ReplyDelete(4) Iowa St. 6 - 16 (10) Illinois (10:54 left in first half)
Iowa State looks terrible. Illinois does not have a good defense, and the Cyclones are making them look like the Bad Boy Pistons.
ReplyDelete(5) N. Carolina 54 - 46 (19) Alabama (halftime)
ReplyDelete(4) Iowa St. 12 - 21 (10) Illinois (7:19 left in first half)
I told you Alabama would need 100 points. They might need 110.
DeleteAt least in the first half of this game, Alabama plays the opposite bad perimeter defense that Kentucky played so much of the season. Kentucky so often seemed to lay back against three-point shooters, and opponents were forever making more three-pointers than they had in any other game all season. Alabama, though, leaps and lunges for everything, and North Carolina shooters can simply wait out the traffic for uncontested shots. Consequently, UNC has more three-pointers in the first half tonight (10) than they've scored in any other half this season.
ReplyDeleteI just can't see Iowa State scoring enough points to make this game competitive.
ReplyDelete(5) N. Carolina 54 - 46 (19) Alabama (halftime)
(4) Iowa St. 20 - 30 (10) Illinois (3:41 left in first half)
The Cyclones are another one of those grinder teams. They've gone about as far as they can.
Meanwhile, Iowa State is ranked number 1 in the country on defense, and their defense isn't nearly as good at Tennessee's.
ReplyDelete(5) N. Carolina 55 - 50 (19) Alabama (16:09 left)
ReplyDelete(4) Iowa St. 26 - 36 (10) Illinois (halftime)
(5) N. Carolina 72 - 69 (19) Alabama (7:06 left)
ReplyDelete(4) Iowa St. 36 - 41 (10) Illinois (15:42 left)
YES!!! DOWN GOES CAROLINA!!!
ReplyDeleteAnd Alabama didn't need 110 points, or even 100. The Tide rolls 89 to 87, as UNC scores only 33 points in the second half. Alabama goes 11-26 from 3-point range, while the Heels go 12-32. Amazingly, the Heels go 18-46 (39.1 percent) from two-point range, and that's what sinks them.
UNC made seven of 14 three-pointers in the first half and five of 18 in the second. I fell asleep not too long into the second half, but it was clear on the Heels' first few possessions that they were being not nearly as patient and measured as they had been in the first half.
DeleteI so badly wanted them both to lose.
Last year, Alabama had the overall number one seed, and they went out in the Sweet 16. Now, if they beat Clemson, they'll be in the Final Four for the first time ever.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, with 6:18 left, Iowa State has closed to within 53 to 51, as their defense has really kicked in.
ReplyDelete(5) N. Carolina 87 - 89 (19) Alabama (FINAL)
ReplyDelete(4) Iowa St. 51 - 55 (10) Illinois (5:38 left)
(4) Iowa St. 56 - 62 (10) Illinois (4:06 left)
ReplyDeleteIllinois makes some huge three's to open up a six-point lead. ISU calls time. The score of this game looks like the score of the Clemson/Arizona game, but these teams are playing much better.
(4) Iowa St. 64 - 67 (10) Illinois (49 seconds left)
ReplyDeleteIllini ball, and the Illini call time. Notice that Illinois has scored 12 points in the last five minutes of game time. And Iowa State is supposed to have the best defense in the country.
Illinois comes out of the time out, drives to the basket, and draws a foul. That should do it.
DeleteIllinois has the second best offense in the country, and Iowa State has done well to hold them to around 70 points for the game. But the Cyclone offense couldn't generate enough points to advance.
ReplyDeleteUConn was the only higher seed to win tonight.
ReplyDelete(4) Iowa St. 69 - 72 (10) Illinois (FINAL)
ReplyDeleteIn 2021, Illinois was a number-1 seed and went out in the second round to Loyola of Chicago. Now they're in the Elite Eight.
"Final Four" is perfect. "Sweet 16" is OK for the NCAA tournaments, even though I try to use it only for the Kentucky high-school tournaments and lean in more to "regional semifinals." But "Elite Eight" is just awful, and I go with "regional finals" in all uses unless I just totally slip up.
DeleteThe A's, by the way, are only one game below .500 after a season-opening game that had even the parking lot outside the Oakland Coliseum packed.
ReplyDeleteIn the women's tournament, (12) Oregon St. beats (9) Notre Dame 70 to 65 to advance to the Regional 1 Final.
ReplyDeleteThis was a strange game. Oregon State had 26 turnovers, while Notre Dame had only 5. So Notre Dame took 73 shots from the field, compared to only 48 for Oregon State. But Oregon State went 6-14 from 3-point range (42.9 percent), and 23-34 from 2-point range (67.6 percent). Meanwhile, Notre Dame went 4-16 from 3-point range (25.0 percent) and 22-57 from 2-point range (38.6 percent). And that was what allowed the Beavers to win.
DeleteVery happy about N.C. State and Purdue!
ReplyDelete