Murray State is probably going to finish with a losing record, but the Racers still have a chance to overtake Morehead State on the Ken Pom rankings. Western really hurt themselves with that loss at MTSU:
122. Morehead St: 21-8
128. Murray St: 12-17
144. W. Kentucky: 19-8
184. E. Kentucky: 17-11
200. E. Tenn. St: 14-15
222. Austin Peay: 15-14
286. Mid. Tenn. St: 12-16
328. Tennessee Tech: 10-19
By the way, in case you wonder how hard it is to stay on top, here are the current Ken Pom rankings for the four teams that reached the Final Four in 2013:
85. Syracuse: 18-10
109. Michigan: 8-20
167. Wichita St: 11-17
190. Louisville: 8-19
Speaking of Louisville, here is the Classic Metro:
47. Cincinnati: 16-11
48. S. Carolina: 22-5
55. Virginia Tech: 15-12
77. Memphis St: 20-8
79. Florida St: 14-13
135. Tulane: 13-13
190. Louisville: 8-19
221. So. Mississippi: 16-13
On the whole, the Classic Metro is having one of the worst seasons I can remember. Statistically, Cincinnati and South Carolina are very similar, but Cincinnati is ranked number 343 in "luck," while South Carolina is 5th. The Gamecocks are 6-2 in games decided by five points or less, while the Bearcats are 3-8. (Kentucky is 2-5 in such games). As a result, the AP has South Carolina as the number 18 team in the country, while UC is on pace to miss the NCAA Tournament altogether.
On the other hand, the Classic SEC has six of its ten teams in the top 30, and I'm not sure that's ever happened before:
5. Auburn: 21-6
6. Tennessee: 21-6
7. Alabama: 19-8
17. Kentucky: 19-8
27. Florida: 19-8
28. Mississippi St: 19-8
74. Mississippi: 19-8
83. Georgia: 15-12
89. Louisiana St: 14-13
202. Vanderbilt: 7-20
Here you can see why that LSU loss stings so much. On paper, at least, it should have been a lot easier to beat LSU than it will be to win on Tuesday in Starkville. But the same LSU team that went 9-20 from 3-point range against UK made only 3-17 against Mississippi State. If LSU had gone 3-17 from 3-point range against the Cats, that game would have been a lot different.
One more point: Mississippi State went 10-21 (47.6 percent) from behind the arc at LSU. If they do that tomorrow night, UK will be in big trouble.
ReplyDeleteIf I didn't care who wins, I'd be very excited for this UK/MSU game. Ken Pom has the Bulldogs winning 79 to 77, and gives the game a "thrill score" of 77.1, which is quite high.
ReplyDeleteI won't be surprised whatever happens tonight. With this team, anything can happen -- and most of it already has.
ReplyDeleteKen Pom gives UK a 45 percent chance of victory. ESPN gives the Cats a 40.9 percent chance.
ReplyDeleteVegas has MSU as a 4 1/2 point favorite in a game where the over/under is 156 1/2. That would imply a final score of something like 80-76.
ReplyDeleteMississippi State immediately jumps out to a 12-3 lead with 15:07 left in the first half.
ReplyDeleteMSU goes up 14-3 until a new UK lineup (with Dillingham, Sheppard, and Big Z) goes on a 7-0 run to give UK some sign of life. With 11:50 left in the first half, MSU leads 16-10. The Cats are 2-8 from 3-point range; the Bulldogs are 1-3. MSU has outrebounded UK 11-7. And, of course, MSU is 3-5 from the line, while UK is 0-0.
ReplyDeleteThe only SEC team to beat MSU in Starkville was Alabama. Back on January 13, the Tide went 10-28 from 3-point range and beat MSU 82 to 74. And that's been it. MSU beat Tennessee 77 to 72 in Starkville, and they beat Auburn 64 to 58.
ReplyDeleteWith 7:48 left in the first half, MSU leads 25 to 20. The Cats are now 4-11 from 3-point range, while MSU is 2-5. The difference is just old-fashioned home cooking. Edwards is out for the rest of the half with two fouls. Dillingham is gone for the rest of the half with two fouls. MSU is 5-8 from the line, while UK is 0-2, and those five points are the difference in the game. MSU is heading back to the line after the TV timeout.
ReplyDeleteWith 3:48 left in the first half, MSU leads 34 to 30. Cats now 6-14 from 3-point range, while MSU is 2-6. But the Bulldogs are filling it up on the inside -- they have 20 points in the paint. That was an excellent stretch of basketball -- well-played on both sides. Now that Edwards and Dillingham are on the bench, the officials are letting the remaining players play -- at least so far.
ReplyDeleteEveryone's always fussing at Cal to try a zone, and D.J. Jeffries -- who was a 26 percent shooter from 3-point range -- makes back-to-back 3's to put MSU up 40-32 with 50 seconds left.
ReplyDeleteMSU hits a third 3-pointer in a row. Bulldogs are now 5-9 from behind the arc, and they lead 43-32 with 20 seconds left in the first half.
ReplyDeleteWagner hits a three to end the half. MSU leads 43 to 35. I said that UK's only hope was to catch MSU on a bad shooting night. Unfortunately, that did not happen. The Cats have done a good job with their own offense, but MSU's rebounding and three-point shooting are just too much for UK.
ReplyDeleteKentucky:
7-11 from 2-point range (63.6 percent)
7-18 from 3-point range (38.9 percent)
0-2 from the line (0.0 percent)
35 points, 13 rebounds, 5 turnovers
Mississippi St:
11-21 from 2-point range (52.4 percent)
5-9 from 3-point range (55.6 percent)
6-10 from the line (60.0 percent)
43 points, 20 rebounds, 6 turnovers
Given the officiating and the hostile road environment, I really don't think UK can play much better than they did in the last 15 minutes of the first half. They were down 14-3, and then outscored MSU 32-29 the rest of the way. But that's just not enough. To win a game like this, you need big men who are really great, and UK just doesn't have anyone like that.
ReplyDeleteKentucky's last three games are home to Arkansas, home to Vandy, and at Tennessee. So it seems very likely that they will finish 21-10 on the year, and 11-7 in the SEC. That will leave them with the 5 or 6 seed in the SEC Tournament, and probably leave them with a 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA's.
ReplyDeleteThey have had several chances for the type of breakthrough that would have indicated that they were ready to go on a run. They were 12-2, but then lost to Texas A & M in overtime. They crushed Georgia in the Big Z game, but then got stomped by South Carolina. They upset Auburn on the road, but then fell apart against LSU. And they blew out Alabama, but are now down by 8 in Starkville.
ReplyDeleteLet's take a similar team -- BYU. Ken Pom has BYU at number 18. They're 9th in offense and 69th in defense. They've had some great wins -- they killed Iowa State 87-72 at home on January 16, and they beat Baylor 78-71 last week. But they've lost their last three road games, they are 7-7 in the Big XII, and they're probably headed for a first or second round exit in the NCAA's. When you're at that level, that's the type of season you normally have.
ReplyDeleteAmazingly, BYU went to Kansas tonight and beat the Jayhawks 76 to 68. Significantly, KU went 3-15 from 3-point range, while BYU went 13-34. So this game was very similar to UK's win at Auburn.
DeleteThat doesn't mean UK can't win any particular game. If MSU goes 0-9 from 3-point range in the second half, the Cats could probably win this game. But they aren't good enough to impose their will on a team like MSU in a road game. They have to hope for a lot of missed shots.
ReplyDeleteMSU comes out of the locker room, shoots a 3, makes a 3, and is fouled. Four point play and the Bulldogs lead 47-35.
ReplyDeleteNow here you see the sort of thing that drives UK fans crazy. As we've already discussed, MSU opened the game with a 14-3 run, and the Cats spent the rest of the half trying to catch up. And then Cal starts the second half with the SAME LINEUP he used to open the game. After only 1:50 seconds, MSU is on a 9-4 run, and the Cats trail 52-39. Cal is forced to call time and put Sheppard and Dillingham in the game. But now, instead of having 20 minutes to make up an 8-point deficit, the Cats have 18 minutes to make up a 13-point deficit. Why does Cal do these things? I don't know. But I knew -- and the MSU coaching staff knew -- that they would face that bad starting lineup to begin the second half, and they took advantage of it.
ReplyDeleteMSU now 7-11 from 3-point range. If I were Cal, my goal would be not to allow a single 3-point shot for the rest of the year. I don't care how many dunks and layups I allowed. I wouldn't sit there and watch teams rain three's on me, no matter what.
ReplyDeleteOn the whole, I'm disappointed in UK. I never thought they'd win this game, but I didn't think they'd be down by 13 points with 18 minutes left.
ReplyDeleteWith Dillingham and Sheppard in the game, the Cats go on a quick 6-0 run to make the score 52 to 45. But the referees quickly call Edwards and Dillingham for their third foul each. That should end that run, because Cal will probably take them both out of the game. 15:23 left in the game.
ReplyDeleteCats now 7-21 from 3-point range (Reeves and Dillingham are 1-8), while MSU is 7-15. There's really no way for UK to make up that difference.
ReplyDeleteWith 4:51 left in the game, MSU leads 71 to 67. Cats are 9-29 from 3-point range (31.0 percent), MSU is 8-20 (40.0 percent). Reeves has 19 points. Sheppard has 21 points. But Dillingham has only 2, as does Edwards.
ReplyDeleteCats go on a 7-0 run, thanks to two FT's by Wagner, a 3-pointer by Dillingham, and a pass from Dillingham to Bradshaw for a dunk. Cats lead 74 to 71 with 3:17 left.
ReplyDeleteMSU scores on a put back to make it 74-73. UK lets the shot clock run out. MSU takes over with 2:33 left.
ReplyDeleteWith 2:13 left, MSU is fouled. One and one for Tolu Smith. He misses, and UK gets the rebound.
ReplyDeleteScoop shot from Dillingham puts UK up 76-73. MSU is fouled at the other end. Two shots for Shakeel Moore. He makes them both. UK leads 76-75 with 1:48 left
ReplyDeleteJumper from Sheppard puts UK up 78-75.
ReplyDeleteSTEAL BY THE CATS! Dillingham to Sheppard. Sheppard makes the layup and is fouled. The FT puts UK up 81 to 75 with 1:09 left.
ReplyDeleteMSU tries a three. BLOCKED BY SHEPPARD. Dillingham gets the ball and is fouled. One and one. 57 seconds left.
ReplyDeleteDillingham makes the first FT. Dillingham makes the second FT. UK leads 83-75. But MSU hits a three to make it 83-78 with 50 seconds left.
ReplyDeleteIn the last minute of this game, MSU scored 14 points.
DeleteReeves is fouled with 48 seconds left. One and one. He makes the first. He makes the second. UK leads 85-78. MSU hits another three to make it 85-81 with 43 seconds left.
ReplyDeleteMSU now 10-24 from three-point range.
DeleteUK has Sheppard in-bounding, so he won't shoot the FT's.
ReplyDeleteI was wrong. They got it back to Sheppard and he is fouled with 35 seconds left. He makes the first. He makes the second. UK leads 87-81 with 35 seconds left.
ReplyDeleteMSU doesn't shoot a three, but Onyenso fouls the shooter, so it will be an old-fashioned three-point play.
ReplyDelete87-84 with 27 seconds left. Sheppard throws the ball away. Reeves fouls MSU, and they go back to the line with 21 seconds left.
ReplyDeleteUK leads 87-86 with 21 seconds left. Sheppard is fouled with 16 seconds left.
ReplyDeleteSheppard makes the first FT. He makes the second FT. UK leads 89-86 with 16 seconds left.
ReplyDeleteMSU, of course, comes down to hit a three, thus tying the game with eight seconds left.
ReplyDeleteIn the last minute of the game, MSU was 3-3 from 3-point range, 1-1 from 2-point range, and 3-3 from the line.
DeleteIn the last minute of the game, UK was 1-1 from 2-point range, and 8-8 from the line.
DeleteSheppard comes down and hits a 15-footer with 0.5 seconds left. UK leads 91 to 89.
ReplyDeleteI didn't get excited here because I still thought there was a good chance MSU would hit another three-pointer to win it.
DeleteMSU tries to throw the Grant Hill pass -- AND SHEPPARD INTERCEPTS IT! Sheppard finishes with 32 points. And he hits the game-winning shot. UNBELIEVABLE!!!!
ReplyDeleteFinal Score: Kentucky 91, Mississippi St. 89.
ReplyDeleteKentucky:
ReplyDelete23-30 from 2-point range (76.7 percent)
10-30 from 3-point range (33.3 percent)
15-17 from the line (88.2 percent)
91 points, 28 rebounds, 11 turnovers
Mississippi St:
22-39 from 2-point range (56.4 percent)
11-25 from 3-point range (44.0 percent)
12-17 from the line (70.6 percent)
89 points, 34 rebounds, and 15 turnovers
Here's Reed Sheppard's numbers:
ReplyDelete7-7 from 2-point range (including the game-winner)
4-7 from 3-point range
6-6 from the line
32 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists
Sheppard is the first Cat with 30 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists in a game since Derek Anderson in November 1996.
DeleteTHIS IS WHY WE WATCH!
ReplyDeleteThe emotional arc of this post's string of comments--from lengthy, reasoned despair to staccato proclamation of joy--has been fantastic.
DeleteThat's one of the best regular season SEC wins I can remember. That was fantastic.
ReplyDeleteYes.
DeleteAfter the loss to Tennessee, the Cats were 5-4 in the SEC. Since then, they have gone 5-1 in the SEC, with their only loss being a buzzer-beater at Louisiana St.
ReplyDeleteThe Cats are now 20-8 and 10-5. They remain at Number 17 on Ken Pom, but they are now up to number 287 in luck.
ReplyDeleteIn Baton Rouge, LSU beats Georgia 67 to 66. LSU has won three of its last four games, and all three wins have been by one point. That's unbelievable.
ReplyDeleteIn Fayetteville, Vandy stuns Arkansas 85 to 82 for their first road win of the year.
ReplyDeleteWKU, which won 86-81 at Murray on Nov. 14, hosts Louisiana Tech at 7 tonight.
ReplyDeleteWith 11:45 left in the first half in Knoxville, UT leads Auburn 16 to 13.
ReplyDeleteIn his post-game comments last night, Cal made a big point of talking about how important it was to have Wagner back at full strength. I went back and checked the numbers. On January 20, Wagner led UK to a 105-96 win over Georgia. He was great in that game: 18 points, 10 assists in 29 minutes. The next game was against South Carolina and he played poorly. Four days later he played 35 minutes against Arkansas but had only 8 points and 3 assists. After that, they announced he was hurt, and he missed the games against Florida (loss), Tennessee, (loss), and Vandy (win). He then returned -- but in the next five games (Gonzaga, Ole Miss, Auburn, LSU, and Alabama), he never played more than 24 minutes and he never had an offensive rating above 85.
ReplyDeleteI just assumed he would never get back to full strength. But last night, he played 28 minutes and had an offensive rating of 137 -- the first time since Georgia that he was over 100. He had 10 points and 4 assists. He also went 2-4 from behind the 3-point line. Those were the first 3-pointers he had made since the Georgia game -- he had missed 15 three-pointers in a row since then.
DeleteNow if Wagner has really been hurt for over a month, and if he's going to play like he did at the beginning of the season, that would be a big deal.
DeleteFor what it's worth, I think Wagner should get a lot of credit for Sheppard's basket at the end of the game last night. As soon as MSU scored to tie the game, Sheppard in-bounded to Wagner, Wagner brought the ball up, and Wagner made the pass that left Sheppard open for the game-winner.
DeleteAt the half, UT leads Auburn 44 to 40. The Tigers are 5-12 on three's, and the Vols are 4-8. It's been a very well-played game so far.
ReplyDeleteAuburn fell behind 49 to 40, but then went on a 19-5 run. Tigers now lead 59 to 54 with 13:08 left.
ReplyDeleteI don't know what to make of Tennessee. When UK played them in Lexington, I thought they were by far the best team I'd seen outside of UConn. We've played Kansas, UNC, Alabama, Auburn, and Tennessee -- and Tennessee was the only team where we were never really in the game. They just dominated UK from start to finish. But Auburn is really giving them fits tonight.
ReplyDeleteWith 11:38 left, Auburn leads 63 to 58. Tennessee has already shot 23 FT's, while Auburn has already shot 18.
ReplyDeleteBut then UT unleashes Dalton Knecht. He's got 25 points with 9:10 left, and the game is tied at 69 each. Auburn is 7-17 from 3-point range, while UT is 8-14.
ReplyDeleteAgainst UK, Tennessee was so good that Knecht never had to break a sweat. But he is just destroying Auburn right now. He makes two more closely guarded jumpers. That's 29 points for Knecht, and the Vols lead 73-70 with 7:33 left.
ReplyDeleteFlorida beat Mizzou 83 to 74 in Gainesville. The Tigers fall to 0-15, the Gators are 10-5.
ReplyDeleteI know Pearl is a coach who believes in a tough man-to-man, but he has no one who can cover Knecht. Now he has 34 points, and the Vols lead 79-77 with 4:52 left.
ReplyDeleteAnd there it is. Auburn gets a steal and a potential runout to tie the game. Of course the Auburn player is murdered going in for the layup, but since we're in Knoxville, that's not a foul. Pearl goes nuts, yelling and hollering at everyone until he gets a technical. Of course Pearl is right -- the UT player literally hit the Auburn player in the head. But Knoxville is not about justice. Knecht makes a technical foul, and UT leads 80-77 with 4:48 left.
ReplyDeleteI hate the SEC.
DeleteAuburn tries a pass, Knecht knocks the ball out of bounds, the officials give the ball to UT. Knecht scores again. Vols lead 82 to 77.
ReplyDeleteI think those sequences broke Auburn. The Vols are up 84-77 with 3 minutes left, and this game is over.
ReplyDeleteSo Vols will move to 12-3, while Auburn will fall to 10-5. As I said several weeks ago, this would have been a better game at Auburn.
ReplyDeleteThis was a very frustrating game for Auburn. They played very well -- much better than they played against UK or than UK played against UT. But Knecht just went to another level, and of course you are going to have bad luck in Knoxville.
DeleteOn the other hand, I've seen UK have bad luck in Auburn, too.
DeleteAuburn hits a three to make the score 84 to 80 with 2:45 left. UT calls time.
ReplyDeleteUT comes out of the timeout and this time they can't get the ball to Knecht at all. So Zakai Zeigler just dribbles around until the shot clock is about to expire. With a few seconds left on the shot clock, he drives to the basket and they call a foul on Auburn.
ReplyDeleteWe're getting a lot of video replays now, as if that makes any of these decisions more credible. Ziegler makes the free throws, and UT leads 86 to 80 with 2:15 left.
DeleteRick Barnes once lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament when he had Kevin Durant, so anything is possible. But Knecht really takes UT to another level. Tonight he's gone 7-13 from 2-point range, 5-8 from 3-point range, and 10-12 from the line. That's 39 points. No one on Auburn came close to stopping him.
ReplyDeleteVols win 92 to 84.
ReplyDeleteSo Alabama needs to win at Ole Miss to tie the Vols at 12-3. Alabama and UT will play in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, and that will be a huge game.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, South Carolina is at Texas A & M, which has lost four games in a row. Check this out: The Aggies are shooting 27.1 percent from 3-point range, which puts them at number 360 in the country. They've made only 26.8 percent of their 3-point shots in SEC play, which is dead last in the league. Against UK they made 12 of 32 three-point shots, for a rate of 37.5 percent.
ReplyDeleteYour writing about the SEC, however, is so, so good.
DeleteAfter falling behind, the Aggies fought back to take a 59-57 lead with about 4 minutes to go. But then Carolina went on a 9-0 run. They had three possessions where they got put backs. Then they had a possession where they made a layup and were fouled. They didn't make a single jump shot -- just raw, brutal Big East-type violence. That's how they beat UK.
ReplyDeleteUp 68-66, Carolina missed a free throw with 16 seconds left. A & M scored to tie the game with 9 seconds left. But the Gamecocks came back and got a dunk with 3 seconds left to lead 70 to 68. A & M doesn't get off a shot, and the Gamecocks move to 11-4. They're really good.
ReplyDeleteAlabama beats Ole Miss (in Ole Miss) by 103 to 88. So the top of the SEC looks like this:
ReplyDeleteTennessee: 12-3
Alabama: 12-3
S. Carolina: 11-4
Tennessee is at Alabama at 7 PM Central on Saturday.
Top of the SEC by point differential in conference games:
DeleteTennessee: +202
Auburn: +171
Alabama: +124
Kentucky: +85
Florida: +51
Mississippi St: +23
S. Carolina: +20
Everyone else has allowed more points than they've scored.
At this point last season, UK was 10-5 in the SEC. They had outscored their SEC opponents 1,069 to 1,048 -- a difference of 21. This year, they've outscored their SEC opponents 1,308 to 1,223 -- a difference of 85.
Delete