Auburn 59 - 70 Kentucky (Win No. 2,393)

Coach John Calipari was feeling very good after last night's win in Auburn, and he told the press to keep criticizing him -- just leave the players alone.  I've criticized him a lot this year -- and over the last four years -- and I don't apologize for any of it.  I think Kentucky was very poorly coached down the stretch in the loss at home to Florida.  I think they looked hopelessly overmatched at home against Tennessee -- something that should never happen.  And I think they threw away a home game against Gonzaga that they should have won.  I also think that Cal's approach is outmoded, and that his young guys -- no matter how talented they are -- cannot reach the levels we expect when they're going up against the type of bruisers you see at Tennessee and UConn.  And for all these reasons, I thought they were going to get smoked yesterday down in Auburn.

They did not.  Auburn got their usual edge at home from the officials -- they shot 30 FT's to only 24 for the Cats, even though UK led most of the game.  Justin Edwards fouled out in only 18 minutes of play.  Rob Dillingham picked up four fouls in only 18 minutes.  And Tre Mitchell didn't play at all due to the shoulder injury he suffered against Ole Miss.  But Auburn fell behind 19-9 after 10 minutes, and could never get closer than five points the rest of the way.  UK led 39-29 at the half, and rolled home with a shockingly easy 70 to 59 win.  It ended a 16-game home winning streak for Auburn.  It was UK's first win at Auburn since 2019 -- the Cats had lost three in a row down there.  On the whole, it was a stunning result.

Cal, of course, wants us to believe that this game is a precursor of things to come.  And maybe it is, but it's too early to say.  What strikes me about UK's last two wins is that Ole Miss went 5-22 from 3-point range, while Auburn went 4-22 from 3-point range.  That's 9-44, or 20.5 percent.  Now here's the big question:  Is that simply good luck, or have the Cats actually figured out how to defend the 3-pointer.

Remember that the Cats have lost four SEC games.  In those four games, their opponents shot 47-114 from three point range, a mark of 41.2 percent.  In their eight SEC wins, their opponents have shot 57-207 from behind the arc, an average of 27.5 percent.  In fact, in none of Kentucky's SEC wins did their opponent make more than a third of its 3-point tries -- while in each of its SEC losses, the opponents made at least 37.5 percent of its three-point shots.

One way to look at these statistics is to conclude that if you don't make your three-point shots against the Cats, their offense is good enough to beat you.  On the other hand, if you do make your three-point shots, even their offense (combined with their poor execution down the stretch) won't be enough to keep pace.  If this conclusion is correct, then the Cats were lucky to catch Ole Miss and Auburn on days where their outside shooters were cold.  But another way to look at it is that against Ole Miss and Auburn, the Cats made some type of adjustment that prevented the barrage of three-pointers we saw from Florida and Tennessee.

It it's an adjustment, then the Cats could go on a run.  They are ranked 21 on Ken Pom:  7th on offense and 80th on defense.  They are also 273d in luck.  If their defense continues to improve -- and if they could actually win some close games for a change -- they could do some damage.  But it's been five years since the Cats went to the Elite Eight, and I'm sure Cal will understand if I conclude that seeing is believing.

We'll learn a lot this week.  On Wednesday, the Cats have L.S.U. on the road, and K-Pom gives them a 63 percent chance of victory.  Then on Saturday, they come home to play Alabama, and K-Pom only gives them a 43 percent chance to win that game.  In other words, he thinks there's only a 27.1 percent chance that UK goes 2-0 this week.  If they win both games, that would be a strong sign that they are underrated.  But I warn you:  I've watched K-Pom for over ten years, and he rarely underrates the Cats.