Monday, January 30, 2023

If the NCAA played through regions

It's time to see what the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament would look like if the nation were divided into 16 regions, like what we do with the KHSAA.  We don't yet have the draw for the tournament, but the top team in each region -- according to Ken Pom rankings -- is listed below.  I've also included all teams currently ranked in the top 20, so you can see which regions are really strong:

1st:  Connecticut (6)
2d:  St. John's (75)
3d:  Rutgers (18) (Villanova has won this region every year since 2013)
4th:  Virginia (13)
5th:  Duke (28)
6th:  Alabama (5)
7th:  Arkansas (21)
8th:  Tennessee (1)
9th:  W. Virginia (20)
10th:  Purdue (4), Indiana (19)
11th:  Marquette (8), Iowa St. (17)
12th:  Kansas (9), Creighton (11)
13th:  Houston (2), Texas (10), Baylor (14), Texas Christian (15)
14th:  Arizona (12)
15th:  Gonzaga (16)
16th:  UCLA (3), Saint Mary's (7)

For the first five regions, which basically represent the East Coast, this is the poorest performance we've seen since probably back in the 1970's, before the Big East was created.  Meanwhile, the Texas schools are doing a much better job of keeping their players at home, and that is changing the landscape of college basketball.

Here's the latest in the 8th region, which doesn't look very strong:

29th District:  Kentucky (34), E. Kentucky (186)
30th District:  Murray St. (172), W. Kentucky (176) (Louisville 300)
31st District:  Tennessee (1), Middle Tennessee (123)
32d District:  Memphis (36), Vanderbilt (91)

(I begged Louisville not to join the ACC, but they wouldn't listen.)

That would give us the following regional quarter-finals:

Murray St. v. E. Kentucky
Tennessee v. Vanderbilt
Memphis v. Middle Tennessee
Kentucky v. W. Kentucky

The Eighth Region is supposed to be played in Freedom Hall this year, and you have to hope that UK can pull the upset if it gets to play Tennessee in the final.

97 comments:

  1. Kentucky is at number 34 in Ken Pom, which seems right to me. They have played five really good teams: Tennessee (1), UCLA (3), Alabama (5), Kansas (9), and Gonzaga (16). They beat Tennessee, in large part because the Vols went 3-21 from three point range, and because UK went an unusual 22-25 from the line. In each of the other four games, they trailed throughout the entire second half. They lost to UCLA by 10, to Alabama by 26, to Kansas (at home) by 9, and to Gonzaga by 16. They are a bubble team -- not because they don't try, or because Cal doesn't use the right combination of players, but because they just don't have enough talent to seriously compete against highly-ranked teams.

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  2. Watching them at home against Kansas, for example, was very similar to watching a school like Vandy or Ole Miss going up against a top-ten UK team. They had the crowd, the had a favorable whistle, they played with great intensity -- and in the end, the talent gap was just too great to overcome. Kansas out-rebounded them 34-29, and went 6-16 from three-point range, compared to 2-13 for UK. Down the stretch, when UK desperately needed to tie the game, KU scored on almost every possession for a period of about five minutes of game time.

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  3. No amount of hustle or tactics can really make up for that gap in talent. Cal's a great coach, but he's not going fool guys like Bill Self and Mark Few.

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  4. Kansas looked fantastic to me. I could not remember seeing a team hit so many giant shots in Rupp Arena down the stretch like that.

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  5. The UK-Ole Miss game was supposed to start at 8:10 PM Central on ESPN, but Duke/Wake started at 6 PM, and is still going at 8:13 PM. Duke leads 75-66 with 34 seconds left, and for some reason somebody thought this would be a good time to call timeout.

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  6. Cason Wallace isn't playing tonight. If his recovery follows the usual pattern for UK players, he won't be healthy for the rest of the year.

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  7. Duke leads 75-68 with 20.5 seconds left, and someone just called another timeout.

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  8. Duke leads 75-68 with 12.8 seconds left, and Duke is going to the line.

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  9. Duke leads 75-70 with 4.7 seconds left, and Duke is going to the line.

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  10. Wake hits a half-court shot at the buzzer, and loses 75-73. The game ends at 8:19 PM Central Time.

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  11. Ole Miss, who is 1-7 in SEC play, leads UK 13-8 with 15:20 left in the first half. Looks like we've got another South Carolina performance coming.

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  12. Here's a reminder that UK's real problem is on defense. They are 29th in the country in offensive efficiency, which isn't great but isn't a disaster. They are 61st in defensive efficiency, which will put you on the bubble real fast.

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  13. Defense is what's really killing UK lately. Here are their defensive efficiency ratings in the last four seasons:

    2020: 52d
    2021: 35th
    2022: 36th
    2023: 61st

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  14. This year's team will sometimes play defense -- they held Tennessee to 56 points, and they held Vandy to 53 points. But they are often horrific: 89 points to Missouri, 71 to South Carolina. Ole Miss already has 15 points after 7 minutes, so this game looks like a sure loss.

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  15. This is exactly what happened to them after that loss to UCLA. They got discouraged, didn't play any defense, and got crushed at Mizzou. Then they were blown out by Alabama, and beaten easily by South Carolina, before finally righting the ship. If they go through a similar tailspin now, their season will be over.

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  16. Here are UK's next four games:

    at Ole Miss
    home to Florida
    home to Arkansas
    at Georgia

    If they want to be sure of getting into the tournament, they have to win all four.

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  17. K-Pom thinks they will finish 19-12 overall, 10-8 in the SEC. That would give them a 5 to 7 seed in the SEC tournament, which would mean they'd probably lose in the quarter-finals. That would leave them at 20-13 overall, which would probably send them to the NIT.

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  18. There are only two good teams in the SEC: Tennessee and Alabama. To be sure of getting into the NCAA's, you need to win at least 12 SEC games.

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  19. The only defense I understand in basketball is the full court press. I have no idea what UK tries to do on defense, but I can tell you that every possession ends with the other team getting an open shot or a layup. If they're a bad team, and they miss the shot, and they can't rebound, then UK can win. Otherwise UK loses.

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  20. Ole Miss just missed a wide open three-pointer, got the rebound, missed another wide open three-pointer, and then UK got the rebound. That's our idea of a good defensive possession.

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  21. I've now started to think of possessions where UK gets fouled as turnovers. UK is shooting 68.1 percent from the line, their worst performance there since 2013.

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  22. You know a UK team I liked? That 2020 team that couldn't go to the tournament because of COVID. Went 15-3 in the SEC. Went 25-6 overall. Won the SEC by three games. Shot 79.7 percent from the line. Ranked 138 in luck. I really enjoyed that season.

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  23. I feel bad for C.J. Frederick, who has somehow lost the ability to make three-point shots. He's now down to 33.3 percent from 3-point range, which is pretty much the point at which you should stop taking them.

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  24. Frederick hit three out of nine three-pointers at Tennessee. In the four games after that, he went 5-25, including 0-5 against Kansas.

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  25. But back to the defense. I still think Cal should have just thrown out his whole system, and had this team play a full court press while running guys in and out. It couldn't be worse than this.

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  26. UK just had a possession where they passed the ball for 29 seconds, at which point Toppin had to shoot a three. He missed. Ole Miss came down and had a wide open three within six seconds. They missed.

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  27. On the next possession, Ole Miss just threw the ball to a guy who was wide open under the basket. He didn't miss.

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  28. Meanwhile, Vandy is getting humiliated at Alabama. The Crimson Tide lead 64-28 with 13:05 left in the game, and the Vandy fans -- who represent probably the most patient fan base in sports -- are ready to fire Jerry Stackhouse.

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  29. I knew it was a bad sign for Vandy when they played so badly against UK.

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  30. Stackhouse has been at Vandy for four seasons, and his SEC record is 16-45. Vandy should probably move on.

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  31. Ole Miss is terrible. But there are some games where you can just tell that no matter how badly the other team plays, UK will find a way to lose. This is one of those games.

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  32. Adou Thiero goes to the rim and is almost decapitated by the entire Ole Miss front line. He then makes one of two free throws.

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  33. Ole Miss is on a 9-1 run, and they lead 32-30 with 59 seconds left. Without Wallace or Wheeler, UK just has no offense at all. And their defense just can't carry them. Ole Miss has figured out that they can get to the rim on every possession, and they are doing so.

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  34. I really don't understand why Vandy settles for such mediocre basketball coaches. They're in the SEC. They're in Nashville. They have a lot of money. I would think that almost everyone in the Big East would consider coming to Vandy.

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  35. 32-all at the half. Kermit Davis has no players, but he knows how to coach. It's hard to believe he won't figure out how to win this one.

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  36. The rest of the SEC got tired of hearing about Oscar getting all those rebounds. They're putting lots of guys on him, and they aren't letting him do what he did last year. Without Keion Brooks, there's not another offensive threat on the front line, so everyone concentrates on Oscar. He's got 5 points and 6 rebounds, which isn't nearly enough for UK's needs.

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  37. I also think the combination of Oscar and Cal is not good for our defense. Cal needs a shot blocking center that can stop guys from scoring at the rim. Oscar is just too short to play that role.

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  38. Anyway, this feels like a game that will be something like 60-60 with about four minutes left, and then Ole Miss will outscore UK 12-4 to win the game.

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  39. But that's only one way it could go. Another UK move would be to trail 55-45 with about 7 minutes to go, and then lose 65-62.

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  40. K-Pom thought UK would win this game 69-66, but of course we know UK's not winning by three points on the road. They were either going to win easily -- like they did against Vandy -- or they were going down.

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  41. No matter how bad the other team is -- and South Carolina and Ole Miss are both REALLY bad -- at some point you have to actually beat them. UK doesn't do that. They just keep giving up loose balls, put backs, and wide open three pointers until the other team can't help but win.

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  42. Wheeler starts the second half, which doesn't necessarily mean he can play.

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  43. Ole Miss misses a three.
    UK does nothing for 25 seconds and then Toppin misses an off-balance shot.
    Ole Miss misses a three so badly that the ball goes out of bounds
    Toppin charges.

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  44. Oscar gives up a layup at the other end. He fouled the guy, but the guy missed the FT.

    Frederick misses a three.

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  45. Ole Miss misses a three. Reeves makes a three.

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  46. Frederick misses a runner. UK tries to get the rebound and fails -- I've never seen any team worse at picking up a loose ball -- Ole Miss gets a runout at the other end a draws a foul. UK leads 38-36 with 15:57 left, but the Ole Miss FT's will tie the game.

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  47. Ole Miss makes one of two FT's. UK leads 38-37.

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  48. Reeves creates his own shot and makes a jumper.

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  49. Ole Miss misses a shot at the rim. Reeves hits a three. Reeves has 17 points and UK leads 43-37. Ole Miss calls time, apparently because the coaches never told the Ole Miss players who Reeves is.

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  50. Ole Misses at the rim. Oscar has the rebound, but drops it out of bounds. Ole Miss misses again, but gets another rebound. Finally, Ole Miss makes a jumper and UK can have the ball again.

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  51. With two men on Reeves, he passes to Oscar, who is fouled at the rim. Oscar makes the first FT, and then makes the second one. I don't remember the last time he did that.

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  52. Reeves drives to the rim, scores, and is fouled! He makes the FT.

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  53. Ole Miss hits a jumper from the top of the key.

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  54. Oscar tries his jumper from the top of the key and misses. Ole Miss gets a runout, but throws the ball out of bounds.

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  55. Oscar gets a steal, but throws the ball away. Ole Miss gets an easy look at the rim, but misses. UK ball.

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  56. Reeves misses a challenged jump shot. UK commits a foul trying to get the rebound. Cats lead 50-43 with 11:13 left.

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  57. Reeves has 20 points. Oscar has 10 points and 8 rebounds.

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  58. Reeves throws it away and Ole Miss gets a dunk.

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  59. Wheeler misses a layup. Oscar gets the rebound and is fouled on the floor.

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  60. Toppin hits a jumper as the shot clock is running out.

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  61. Ole Miss throws it away. The Rebels get back on defense, but Toppin gets to the rim for a dunk! Now we've stopped the game because Kermit Smith wants to argue with Doug Shows.

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  62. I have the sound off, so I have no idea what the argument is about. ESPN keeps showing clips of players falling down.

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  63. Ole Miss misses. Livingston misses a three. Oscar gets the rebound. Reeves misses. Toppin gets the rebound and scores!

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  64. Ole Miss misses another jumper, and UK is called for a foul on the rebound. Cats lead 58-45 with 7:40 left, which is almost precisely the opposite of what I predicted.

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  65. If you tried that scramble defense on Pitino, he'd beat you by 30. But when Cal is up by 10 with 7 minutes left, we take our time. UK uses up the clock and doesn't score.

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  66. OIe Miss hits another three. Reeves drives to the rim and is fouled.

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  67. Reeves makes both FT's. That's 22 points.

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  68. Wheeler harasses the Ole Miss guard in the back court, AND GETS A TEN-SECOND VIOLATION. And then REEVES HITS A THREE!

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    Replies
    1. I had this game on my phone on mute while my wife and I played Dr. Mario on the TV. She received at Christmas wireless controllers that are the same size, layout and feel of a 1995-or-so Nintendo system, and they are just a delight to use. She's great at Dr. Mario. I'm not very good, but I'm getting better. Our daughter is better than me and not as good as the wife. Anyway, I would check the UK game between each turn, and I had a pretty accurate sense from that what the arc of your comment string about this game might be.

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  69. Ole Miss misses a three and UK gets the rebound.

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  70. With time running out on the shot clock, Ole Miss falls asleep and lets Toppin have an easy layup. Then Ole Miss misses another three.

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  71. Wheeler misses a layup, but it was one of those crazy, off-balance ones he takes at the end of the shot clock. Cats lead 67-53 with 3:27 left. Ole Miss is 4-16 from three point range. Reeves is 6-7.

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  72. So far, UK has outscored Ole Miss 35-21 in the second half.

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  73. Reeves has 25 points. Tshiebwe has 14 points and 11 rebounds. Toppin has 14 points. Wheeler has 9 assists.

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  74. Ole Miss makes a short jumper in the lane. Oscar misses a jumper, but Livingston gets the rebound. He misses, gets another rebound, and makes it.

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  75. Ole Miss gets to the rim and gets an old-fashioned three-point play. I don't know why they took all those jump shots, but I'm glad they did.

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  76. Toppin is fouled. Cats are in the one-and-one, and he makes them both.

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  77. Ole Miss goes inside and is fouled. After a minute or two of litigation, they make two FT's. Then UK tries to bring the ball up court. The game is stopped for more litigation, and Doug Shows goes to the monitor. I'm going to stop doing play-by-play, because this last 1:50 will take a while.

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  78. Cats win 75-66. Ken Pom had the 66 points for Ole Miss on the nose, but UK got six more points than he expected. Next up: the Cats go home to play Florida.

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  79. In other SEC action:

    Arkansas 81 - 70 Texas A & M
    Alabama 101 - 44 Vanderbilt
    S. Carolina 51 - 66 Mississippi St.

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  80. Reeves finished with 27 points. Toppin had 18 points. Oscar had 14 points and 11 rebounds. Wheeler had 9 assists and zero turnovers. Ole Miss went 4-19 from three-point range. Reeves went 6-7. The other Cats went 0-5.

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  81. Now K-Pom thinks the Cats will finish 20-11 and 11-7.

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  82. Pretty good night so far. Florida beat Tennessee 67-54 in Gainesville; Pitt beat North Carolina 65-64 in Chapel Hill.

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  83. UNC and UK are now both 15-7 overall.

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  84. Murray State edges Belmont 83-82 in a typical thriller in Murray. The top of the Missouri Valley now looks like this:

    SIU: 9-3
    Belmont: 9-4
    Drake: 8-4
    Bradley: 8-4
    N. Iowa: 8-4
    Missouri St: 8-5
    Murray St: 8-5

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  85. Through the first nine SEC games, UK is second in the league in offensive efficiency, with a rating of 109.3. That's a pretty good offense -- the Cats went 15-3 in 2020 with an offensive efficiency of 109.0. But the Cats are eighth in defensive efficiency, with a rating of 106.7. That is really bad. If UK can improve its defense, it can finish with a strong record. If not, the Cats will struggle.

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