Monday, February 22, 2021

The Top Teams in College Basketball Today, in the Style of Sports Illustrated in the 1970s

EAST:  1.  Virginia (15-5)  2.  Villanova (14-3)

MIDEAST:  1.  Michigan (16-1)  2.  Iowa (17-6)

MIDWEST:  1.  Baylor (17-0)  2.  Houston (18-3)

WEST:  1.  Gonzaga (22-0)  2.  USC (18-4)


Gonzaga and Baylor are both trying to do something that hasn't been done in a while.  Since Arizona won the NCAA Tournament in 1997, only one team from outside the Eastern Time Zone has gone all the way.  That team was Kansas, who beat Memphis for the 2008 title.  That Kansas team was pretty good -- they had to beat Steph Curry (of Davidson) and Derrick Rose (of Memphis) to win the title.  Since then, all the champions have been from the Eastern Time Zone.

65 comments:

  1. Kansas has played 25 games this season, including 17 games in the Big XII. Almost no one has played that many games. UK has played only 21 games, and only 14 SEC games. Baylor has only played 18 games. Michigan only 17.

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  2. Also, Kansas has a luck ranking of 134. UK is at 339.

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  3. Here's the power of luck. According to Ken Pom, UCLA is the 45th best team in the country. They rank 31st in luck, and their record is 16-5. UK is the 47th best team in the country. They rank 339th in luck, and their record is 8-13.

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  4. 2021 SEC Men's Basketball Championship Schedule

    FIRST ROUND:
    Wed., March 10
    7 p.m. Game 1: Seed #12 (right now, South Carolina) vs. Seed #13 (Texas A&M)

    SECOND ROUND:
    Thurs. March 11
    12 p.m. Game 2: Seed #8 (Kentucky) vs. Seed #9 (Georgia)
    2 p.m. Game 3:Seed #5 (Tennessee) vs. Game 1 winner
    7 p.m. Game 4: Seed #10 (Mississippi State) vs. Seed #7 (Missouri)
    9 p.m. Game 5: Seed #11 (Auburn) vs. Seed #6 (Mississippi)

    QUARTERFINALS:
    Fri., March 12
    12 p.m. Game 6: Seed #1 (Alabama) vs. Game 2 winner
    2 p.m. Game 7: Seed #4 (Florida) vs. Game 3 winner
    7 p.m. Game 8: Seed #2 (Arkansas) vs. Game 4 winner
    9 p.m. Game 9: Seed #3 (LSU) vs. Game 5 winner

    SEMIFINALS:
    Sat., March 13
    1 p.m. Game 10: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner
    3 p.m. Game 11: Game 8 winner vs. Game 9 winner

    CHAMPIONSHIP:
    Sun., March 14
    1 p.m. Game 12: Game 10 winner vs. Game 11 winner

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  5. Meanwhile, I now get to watch the Tops on ESPN2 on Thursday night, and I'm excited. They've had some more games of late canceled because of the virus, so now they've added a 6 Central Thursday game at Houston, which is No. 12 in the current AP poll. In the same situation earlier this season, WKU hustled together a game at Alabama (which is now No. 6), and the Tops won by two points in Tuscaloosa. WKU is 15-4 overall and 8-2 in Conference USA and got two votes in this week's poll (probably Jason Frakes and some descendant of Duncan Hines).

    The CONF USA men's and women's tournaments are scheduled for March 10-13.

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  6. Huge game in Ann Arbor tonight, with the number-3 Wolverines hosting the number-9 Iowa Hawkeyes. It's been a slugfest so far; a 17-all tie with about 7 1/2 minutes left in the first half.

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  7. Michigan and Iowa putting on an old-school Big 10 battle. Wolverines lead 32-29 at the half.

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  8. Michigan up 43-39 with 15:40 left. I've watched Iowa a lot this year, and I almost always see them lose.

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  9. Michigan now up 48-39 with 14:18 left, largest lead of the game. Iowa calls time.

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  10. Michigan blows it open -- up 60-46 with 8:48 left. Michigan is really good, and Iowa is just not at the highest level of college basketball.

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  11. Michigan rolls 79-57, as Iowa just collapsed down the stretch. Michigan looks great. Iowa looks like a team that could go out in the first round, or give someone fits in the Elite Eight. But the Hawkeyes will not win the title.

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  12. Belmont's long winning streak in the OVC finally comes to an end. The Bruins had won 28 OVC games in a row -- and were 18-0 in the conference this year -- before they went to Richmond, Kentucky tonight. But Eastern Kentucky beat them 81-67 to move to 14-5 in OVC play. Next up, Belmont travels to Morehead on Saturday, where the Eagles are 16-3 in the OVC.

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  13. Ohio State and Michigan State are locked in a much better game than Michigan/Iowa. The Spartans (12-9, 6-9) are fighting for their post-season lives at home. They trail OSU (18-5, 12-5) 61-57 with 4:34 left in the game.

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  14. MSU leads 68-67 with 12.8 seconds left. MSU goes to the line. Misses the first FT. OSU calls time. MSU makes the second FT. MSU leads 69-67. OSU ball.

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  15. To their credit, OSU does not shoot a three for the win. They drive to the basket, try a difficult layup, and . . . miss. MSU gets the rebound, is fouled, and wins the game. OSU's coach is ejected for complaining after he thought his guy was fouled on the missed layup. He probably was fouled, but they never call that foul on the home team in that situation. MSU wins 71-67.

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  16. Kentucky up on Florida 29-26 with 6 1/2 minutes left in the first half. The Cats' half court offense is so awkward that when they hold the ball more than 20 seconds, I start expecting a turnover. And I think the referees do as well.

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  17. Cats lead 33-30 with 3 1/2 minutes left in the first half. With the possible exceptions of Alabama and Arkansas, I think this is the worst basketball year the SEC has ever had. The overall quality of play is just horrible. I feel like you could take almost any of the old Don DeVoe teams from the early 1980's at Tennessee and almost run the table, just because they wouldn't make many mistakes.

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    1. Cats have three assists and nine turnovers, which gives you a sense of how their offense works.

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    2. And Florida is just awful. A good UK team would beat this Florida team by 20.

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  18. Askew's last few plays:

    -- left alone in the lane, misses an 8-footer
    -- misses a wide-open three
    -- commits a foul 20 feet from the basket to put Florida on the line.

    Gators lead 36-35 with 1:42 left.

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  19. Cats up 39-38 at the half. Here's their offense so far:

    2-point shots: 7-12
    3-point shots: 3-9
    Free Throws: 16-17
    Turnovers: 9
    Assists: 4

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  20. Cats up 46-44 with 16 1/2 minutes left. Askew has the ball, beats his man, and dribbles it off his foot for a turnover.

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  21. Florida comes back and throws the ball away. It's that kind of game.

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  22. Kentucky tries again to build on its 46-44 lead, but Jackson knocks down a guy for his third foul. Jackson's the best player on the team -- the only potential NBA prospect -- and he's only played 51 percent of the possible minutes because he's always in foul trouble.

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  23. Ken Pom had Florida winning this game 69-68, and that prediction is looking really good right now.

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  24. Florida comes out and drives straight at Askew, who commits his third foul. Maybe he'll come out.

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  25. Cats 2-12 from the floor in the second half so far. Florida leads 47-46 with 14:16 left. Askew is out, so the Cats aren't committing as many turnovers -- they just miss all their shots.

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    1. Wait, there's a turnover -- Boston throws it to Florida. Gators come down and throw the ball away. Florida still up 47-46 with 13:37 left.

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  26. With 12 minutes to go, Mintz carries the ball. Game tied at 49.

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  27. UK offense:

    2-point shots: 9-21
    3-point shots: 4-13
    Free Throws: 19-21
    Turnovers: 13
    Assists: 5

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  28. If you're Florida, you have to take comfort in the fact that UK has been terrible in close games all year. That's why their "luck" score is so low. Although I call it the "do you have a point guard" score.

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  29. Florida going at Jackson every time now, since he can't really do anything on defense. He fouls anyway; that's his fourth. Gators lead 55-51 with 10:25 left. Florida would have to really collapse to lose this game now.

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  30. Down 55-51, Askew throws a crazy pass that Sarr can't handle, but UF misses the shot at the other end.

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  31. Mintz scores (he has 17 points), and Florida leads 55-53 with 9 minutes left. If Florida doesn't win this game, the Gators should seriously consider firing their coach. You just can't lose two games to this team.

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  32. Up 57-55, Florida tries a behind-the-back pass and throws the ball out of bounds. Gators still lead with 7:53 left. At this point, Florida's biggest threat may be over-confidence.

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  33. UK has had a second-half lead in most of the games it has played. But the Cats are 8-13 in large part because they simply cannot score down the stretch. With no point guard, they simply can't break down the other team when everyone is playing with focus, and the officials aren't bailing anyone out.

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  34. Toppin gets fouled, makes both shots. Game tied at 57.
    Turnover by UF.
    Toppin gets fouled on the floor, makes one of two. UK 58-57.
    Turnover by UF.
    Toppin fouled going in for a dunk. Makes one of two. UK 59-57. 6:30 left.

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  35. UK gives up a dunk at the other end. 59-59. UK comes down and throws the ball away. 6:03 left.

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  36. UF is fouled; makes one of two. Gators lead 60-59.

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  37. Toppin badly misses a three, Gators get an easy layup at the other end. Someone (I think Askew) shoots an airball. But Askew gets a steal and Mintz gets a dunk. Gators lead 62-61 with 4:21 left.

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  38. Askew comes up with another loose ball. He misses the layup, but Toppin follows with a dunk! Cats lead 63-62 with 3:46 left. Gators call time.

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  39. Gators come out of the timeout, and Askew's man hits a three. UF leads 65-63. UK misses, and the Gators miss a jump shot. 2 1/2 minutes left.

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  40. Mintz misses a three-pointer. Boston appears to have the rebound, but Florida fights for the ball, it comes loose, and a Florida player bounces it off of Boston. Gators score and lead 67-63 with 1:38 left. Cal calls time.

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  41. Mike Price may have saved his job with that last timeout. I would have fired him if he lost this game.

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  42. Out of the timeout, Jackson scores to make it 67-65.

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  43. Sarr blocks a layup. One minute to go. Mintz misses a three-pointer, but UK gets the rebound. They are going nowhere so Cal calls time. Gators lead 67-65. 37 seconds left. UK has the ball. 8 seconds on the shot clock.

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  44. Boston inbounds to Askew. Of course, he can do nothing, and the Cats are left with Sarr having to shoot a three from the corner. He doesn't even draw iron. Florida gets the rebound, and that should do it.

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  45. Florida wins 71-67. I just can't put into words the despair that I get from watching this team. You just know -- unless they are playing Vandy -- that they cannot make any plays down the stretch.

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  46. Here were Askew's numbers:

    2-point shots: 0-2
    3-point shots: 0-3
    Free throws: 1-2 (Cal let him shoot two technicals)
    Total points: 1
    Personal Fouls: 4
    Turnovers: 3
    Assists: 3

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  47. With 3:46 left, and UK up 63-62, Florida called time. From there to the end of the game, they outscored the Cats 9-4. It happens every time, and it's not luck. When you have no point guard, you can't make any plays in the half-court down the stretch.

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  48. What's really frustrating is that all of these guys will leave, and we'll have to start all over again next year.

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  49. Well, except for Askew. I could see him coming back.

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  50. One final point: It's important to understand that Calipari builds his team by getting big, strong athletic guys who are somewhat raw in terms of basketball skills. His gamble -- which normally pays off -- is that his guys will get enough putbacks, layups, and free throws to make up for their lack of jump shooting ability. But for this strategy to work, he must have a point guard who doesn't turn the ball over, and who gets the ball to the big guys in a position where they are comfortable. And he just doesn't have that. That is by far the biggest problem. There are other problems -- Jackson can't stay on the floor, Boston can't shoot, there's no good outside shooting -- but the lack of a point guard is the reason this team will finish with a losing record.

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  51. People want to blame these close losses on "mental toughness." But that's nonsense. In modern college basketball, late game situations are almost always a violent scrum -- you simply cannot get a clean look at the basket unless you are shooting a three. Under these circumstances, you need a big, strong ball-handler who can score at the rim and get the ball to other people who can score at the rim. If you don't have that, you will lose.

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  52. On the plus side, I got to listen to the disheartening end of this game while driving through Fairdealing, Draffenville, Palma and Sharpe, toward Paducah, on U.S. 68. A few things to note:

    -- The famous Majestic pizza and steak place in Draffenville is now ... oh, I've already forgotten ... a snazzy place called "Popi's," I think. We guessed this is because Majestic was a buffet. Popi's looked good. The famous Majestic in Mayfield was not a buffet, and I wonder if it's still firing.

    -- I think the lakes region is thriving a bit in the pandemic--outdoor activity. U.S. 68 was hopping.

    -- Here was our route around Paducah. It was pouring, and we didn't go in anywhere other than for takeout Q'doba, Jimmy John's and Five Guys (all in the same mall parking-lot complex). Still, it was an absolute blast.

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  53. Latest rankings for UK on Ken Pom:

    Overall ranking: 51
    Offense: 94
    Defense: 25
    "Luck": 346

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  54. Iowa goes to Ohio State and blasts the Buckeyes 73-57. You never know what you're going to get with Iowa.

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