Saturday, March 21, 2020

NFL20 Update


Updated final prediction: Super-bowl champions.

5 comments:

  1. Fantastic Pro Football Reference has a statistic they call "Approximate Value" (AV): "This is our attempt to put a single number on each player-season since 1960 so that we can (very approximately) compare across years and across positions." They have a whole bunch of blog posts where they explain the calculation I'm pretty sure they encourage us not to rely on AV as a be-all, end-all metric, but I'm going to go ahead and for now rely on AV as a be-all, end-all metric.

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  2. So what I did was look at the AVs of the most-frequent NFL19 Dolphins starters at each position (per Pro Football Reference), plus 50 percent of the AVs of the backups. And then I took the team depth chart at MiamiDolphins.com, feathered in the recent free-agent additions and then looked at all of those AVs.

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  3. The NFL19 AVs of the NFL20 Dolphins so far are 26 units better--that's almost 23-percent improved. The NFL19 Dolphins won five games, and 23-percent better works out to another win. So we're up to six.

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  4. Plus, the Dolphins were really young, so I imagine the individual returnees are going to probably be improved, on balance. I'll bet that's another win right there (seven).

    And Miami has a load of high draft choices to add to the roster. That's another win--or maybe even two. NINE!

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  5. Nine wins is what Tennessee needed to make the NFL19 playoffs, so, as you can see, this has been a very happy, fun and hopeful day of football, math and Microsoft Word tabling around my house.

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