Monday, November 21, 2016

TUCFC: 2016 Week 13

Alabama successfully defended the TUCFC in week 12, but week 12 was really all about what a weird chaotic world is college football in 2016.  Maybe no better team represents that than Arkansas State. 

The Red Wolves started the season 0-4 losing to Toledo, Auburn, Utah State, and Central Arkansas.   This was a very bad start for a team who has dominated the Sun Belt for the decade winning the title in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015.  Then they got into conference play and have yet to lose a game.  They now sit at 6-4 atop the Sun Belt with two games left to play.  This past week they destroyed Troy 35-3.  What then are we left to think about Arkansas State, or for that matter the Sun Belt?  It's the same question we are asking about the ACC after Louisville got spanked by Houston, or Michigan after losing to Iowa, or pick your team.  There are questions about every conference and every team this year.  As great as we all think Alabama is, the SEC is highly questionable and so you have to wonder just how good even Alabama is in this crazy season.  All that being said, let's take a look at where things sit going into week 13. 

Clemson has clinched the Atlantic division, but the Coastal is still up in the air.  North Carolina and Virginia Tech are playing this weekend for the Coastal title.  If Virginia Tech beats Virginia they win it.

South Florida and Temple sit atop the East.  Temple holds the tie breaker.   Navy has clinched the West.

Big 12
This will be decided in two weeks when Oklahoma plays Oklahoma state.

Big 10
If Michigan beats Ohio State they win the East.  If Ohio State beats Michigan and Penn State loses, Ohio State wins the East.  If Penn State wins and Ohio State wins, then Penn State wins the East.  I know that everyone expects either Ohio State and Michigan to make the playoff, but it will be very odd if they are not even playing in their conference championship game.  Meanwhile in the West Nebraska and Wisconsin are both sitting with 6-2 Conference records.  Wisconsin holds the tie breaker.  But if Iowa beats Nebraska and Minnesota beats Wisconsin then we have a four way tie between those teams.  I believe then Iowa would be the champs.  Here is hoping for an Iowa vs Penn State Big 10 title. 

Conference USA
Louisiana Tech has won the West while Old Dominion and Western Kentucky are sitting with 6-1 records in the East.  Western holds the tie breaker. 

The West will be decided on Friday when Western Michigan plays Toledo.  Ohio holds the tie breaker in the East over Miami (OH).

Mountain West
Wyoming holds the tie breaker in the Mountain division over Boise State.  If they both lose this weekend, then it would lead to a three way tie between Boise State, Wyoming, and New Mexico.  I believe Boise State would get the division with a better overall record.  San Diego State has won the West. 

Pac 12
The North will be decide on Friday when Washington plays Washington State.  If Colorado wins over Utah, then they win the South, if they lose then USC wins the South.

Alabama has won the West, Florida has won the East. 

Sun Belt
Arkansas State sits on top with Appalachian State and Troy just behind.  Because of the weather stuff early in the season both Troy and Arkansas State have two games left. 

Games to Watch

Washington (10-1) at Washington State (8-3)
Always the biggest game of the year for these two teams it holds real meaning this year with the Pac 12 title on the line. 

Toledo (9-2) at Western Michigan (11-0)
I've been following college football closely for the last few years and it is almost impossible for a mid-major to go undefeated.  Western Michigan has looked a little shaky the last few weeks and so I would not be surprised to see this one go to Toledo.  Toledo has only lost to BYU and Ohio by a combined 7 points.  Both teams that are bowl bound. 

Nebraska (9-2) at Iowa (7-4)
Iowa who is currently unranked could win this game and go on to win the Big 10.  Hard to imagine. 

Auburn (8-3) at Alabama (11-0)
It will be interesting to see how Auburn does against Alabama. 

Michigan (10-1) at Ohio State (10-1)
The most anticipated college football game of the season we had expected both teams to be undefeated.  Instead the winner may very well not even get a shot at the Big 10 championship.

Minnesota (8-3) at Wisconsin (9-2)
For all the love Wisconsin is getting right now they have a tough home test here with Minnesota. 

Utah (8-3) at Colorado (9-2)
Utah has disappointed in the second half of the season, but Colorado has to win this if they hope to get a shot at the Pac 12 title. 

Wyoming (8-3) at New Mexico (7-4)
Wyoming has had an interesting year.  They'll be kicking off one of the final games of the season.  In many ways they best represent the disparity in college football.  They've beaten both Boise State and San Diego State, two darlings of the voters for a New Years day bowl, but then lost to Nebraska 52-17.

Week 13 Power Ratings

2Ohio State10-1869.313912.85020.28148.7501,713.131
5Western Michigan11-0594.500635.0880.0000.0001,229.588
6Penn State9-2759.750690.02576.719192.1251,180.931
15Florida State8-3696.781582.950103.469248.125928.138
17Texas A&M8-3803.281628.850160.719379.938891.475
18Boise State10-1584.688514.92562.125170.500866.988
19Washington State8-3506.031488.12536.37599.750858.031
21Southern California8-3613.188545.01372.813285.938799.450
24South Florida9-2539.500519.67590.625224.938743.613
25Oklahoma State9-2645.000606.300157.094373.063721.144
26Virginia Tech8-3783.063646.700218.844553.125657.794
28West Virginia8-2437.813427.57556.906164.000644.481
29Louisiana State6-4475.406403.72576.344167.313635.475

1 comment: