Monday, November 14, 2016

TUCFC: 2016 Week 12

Alabama once again defended the TUCFC and once again college football was thrown into chaos with more upsets of undefeated teams.  USC handled Washington and more than likely killed the Pac 12 from having a seat in the playoff.  Michigan also tripped up at Iowa, but they still have to play Ohio State and so one of those two teams will likely be in the playoff. 

So I thought this week we'd try and make an argument for the 10-0 Western Michigan team. 

First let's look at their out of conference schedule.  They beat Northwestern, NC Central, Illinois, and Georgia Southern.  None of these wins look all that good, but the best would be their win over Northwestern.  Still they have two wins over Big 10 schools.  Now let's look a bit deeper at the teams Western beat this year.  Central Michigan beat Oklahoma State, which the AP currently ranks 13 in the country.  Eastern Michigan beat Wyoming, and Northwestern beat Duke and Iowa.   OK granted these aren't hugely impressive, but they are still good enough to give Western Michigan a WP score of 412.313 in the TUCFC Power Ratings.  That's better than Washington, Nebraska, LSU, USC, and Oklahoma.  Of course the assumption here is that Western Michigan will win out, which means they would be sitting with a 13-0 record.  Only one other team in the country right now can match that. 

As I've said before I find it unlikely that Western Michigan can win out, just because it is so hard to do, but if they do and they are sitting at 13-0, with how bad some of these conferences have looked this year, I think you have to give them a birth into the playoff.  Here is what Western Michigan fans have to hope for if their team will have a chance. 

Michigan needs to beat Ohio State and then lose to Wisconsin in the Big 10 tournament.  Houston needs to beat Louisville and Clemson needs to lose in the conference championship.  Oklahoma and West Virginia both need to lose again.  Colorado beats Washington State, State beats Washington, Washington beats Colorado.  Essentially all of the power conferences, short of one, needs to completely destroy themselves I believe for Western Michigan to even have a shot at the playoff.  I have to say I find that a bit frustrating that a team like this goes out and schedules power conference competition wins all their games and still really has no shot at the playoffs. 

Games to Watch

Louisville (9-1) at Houston (8-2)
At one point during the season this looked like a must see game.  Now it's just a game Louisville hopes to win convincingly if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. 

Clemson (9-1) at Wake Forest (6-4)
Clemson needs to bounce back strong from their lost, but this team has looked hot and cold all year.  Wake Forest could deliver the knockout blow if Clemson isn't careful. 

Ohio State (9-1) at Michigan State (3-7)
Check the score.  If Ohio State is blowing them out then no reason to watch.  If it's close tune in because this could be the ultimate trap game. 

Oklahoma (8-2) at West Virginia (8-1)
With those at the top tripping over themselves one of these teams could put themselves in a stronger position to make the playoff. 

Washington State (8-2) at Colorado (8-2)
If Washington State hadn't lost to start the season to Eastern Washington they may be in the playoff discussion.  This game will be very critical in deciding the Pac 12 champion. 

San Diego State (9-1) at Wyoming (7-3)
An odd year for Wyoming, but could they pull off another big upset. 

Week 12 Power Ratings
The interesting thing to note here is that the top four teams didn't change, just shifted around. 

2Ohio State9-1638.375780.93819.78148.7501,350.781
7Western Michigan10-0412.313510.5750.0000.000922.888
8Penn State8-2587.781563.38869.938184.938896.294
10Washington State8-2377.281431.03818.46939.438750.413
12Texas A&M7-3560.188496.513114.594278.188663.919
13Florida State7-3479.781442.67580.500195.813646.144
14Boise State9-1413.719414.78743.750139.813644.944
18Louisiana State6-3373.875364.81348.75090.500599.438
19Southern California7-3410.469425.37543.594212.375579.875
23West Virginia8-1310.313352.23836.43890.563535.550
26South Florida8-2344.156401.61380.781209.500455.488
28Oklahoma State8-2397.500422.663120.688305.125394.350
31Virginia Tech7-3499.938491.200182.688479.688328.763

1 comment:

  1. I think there should be a 64-team U.S. college-football tournament. Each state legislature and the District of Columbia government get to determine their representatives in whatever ways each of them chooses to. And then you get to fill out the bracket with however many at-large berths we need to get to 64 teams. Blind draws precede each round to determine pairings.