Tuesday, November 8, 2016

TUCFC: 2016 Week 11

It's been a bad year for Mississippi State football in some ways and a good year in others.  Their ex-QB is in the running for rookie of the year in the NFL and they just beat the number four team in the country.  But that only gets their record to 4-5.  Now they have to travel to Alabama to fight for the TUCFC and take their shot at the number one team in the country. 

As for the rest of the college football scene.  Well with Texas A&M losing it starts to make things much simpler.  I would expect to see Washington move into the number four spot and then it's just a matter of seeing who can win out.  Let's take a quick look at the conferences to see where things stand. 

Atlantic Division: Clemson 6-0, Louisville 6-1
Coastal Division: North Carolina 5-1, Virginia Tech 5-1

Clemson still has three games left, but should win out and take the Atlantic Division.  They own the tie breaker with Louisville.  North Carolina still has Duke and NC State left, while Virginia Tech has Georgia Tech and Virginia left.  Virginia Tech owns the tie breaker. 

American Athletic Conference
West: Tulsa 4-1, Navy 4-1, Houston 4-2
East:  Temple 5-1, South Florida 4-1

Tulsa and Navy play this week so that game could decide the West champ.  Temple holds the tie breaker with South Florida so they just need to win out.  They still have Tulane and East Carolina on their schedule. 

Big 12
Oklahoma 6-0, Oklahoma State 5-1, West Virginia 4-1

Oklahoma's final three games are Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma State.  If they had not lost to Houston, Oklahoma would be in the conversation for the playoffs.  If they win out and others lose they could get back in that conversation as their only other loss is to Ohio State.

Big 10
East:  Michigan 6-0, Ohio State 5-1, Penn State 5-1
West:  Minnesota 4-2, Nebraska 4-2, Wisconsin 4-2

Minnesota play at Nebraska, at Wisconsin the next two weeks.  All they have to do is win out and they are in the Big 10 championship game.  I have to admit I'm hoping that happens.  Michigan meanwhile is at Iowa, Indiana, at Ohio State.  This Iowa game could be a trap game as this team was supposed to be much better than their record. 

Conference USA
West:  Louisiana Tech 5-1, UTSA 4-2
East:  Western Kentucky 5-1, Old Dominion 4-1

Western lost to Louisiana Tech 55-52 at Tech.  We would all like to see that rematch for the conference championship game.  Louisiana Tech plays UTSA this weekend. 

West:  Western Michigan 5-0, Toledo 4-1
East:  Ohio 5-1, Miami (Ohio) 4-2

Western Michigan closes out the year with Toledo.  I have been doing this for the past few years and have yet to see one of these mid major conference teams win out the season.  I'm really pulling for Western Michigan.  Ohio still has Central Michigan and Akron.

Mountain West
Mountain: Wyoming 5-0, Boise State 4-1, New Mexico 4-1
West:  San Diego State 5-0

Wyoming has at UNLV, San Diego State, at New Mexico to close out the season.  Assuming both teams win this week the Wyoming, San Diego State will be a good one to watch. 

Pac 12
North:  Washington 6-0, Washington State 6-0
South:  Colorado 5-1, USC 5-2

Washington closes out USC, Arizona State, at Washington State.  Washington State closes out California, at Colorado, Washington.  Colorado, who has already lost to USC closes out at Arizona, Washington State, Utah, and USC has to go at Washington, at UCLA.  Should be an interesting finale to the year. 

West:  Alabama 6-0, Auburn 5-1
East:  Florida 4-2, Kentucky 4-3

Florida closes out South Carolina, at LSU.  So embarrassing that Kentucky is in the running for the SEC East title and lost to Florida 45-7.  UK only has one SEC game left at Tennessee.  I'm guessing they lose to Tennessee this weekend by 50.  Meanwhile Alabama still has to play Mississippi State and Auburn.  Auburn is at Georgia and at Alabama.  It's hard to get a feel for the SEC this year, but Auburn appears to be a good team with their only losses to Clemson and Texas A&M.

Sun Belt
Troy 4-0, Appalachian State 5-0, Arkansas State 4-0

Appalachian State goes to Troy this week, then Troy hosts Arkansas State.  So we could have this all sorted out very soon. 

Games to Watch

Michigan (9-0) at Iowa (5-4)
Iowa was supposed to be much better than this.  Could this be a trap game?

USC (6-3) at Washington (9-0)
The TUCFC Power Ratings has USC at number 22.  This should be a good game. 

Tulsa (7-2) at Navy (6-2)
I find that I always root for Navy.

Appalachian St. (7-2) at Troy (7-1)
The Sun Belt is always exciting. 

Week 11 Power Ratings
The only thing that stands out here is the fact that Washington is still not in the top four. 

4Ohio State8-1429.313586.18812.21936.563966.719
7Western Michigan9-0294.625426.3130.0000.000720.938
9Texas A&M7-2438.250444.91353.094127.813702.256
10Penn State7-2403.594434.15040.063139.938657.744
12Washington State7-2256.188332.45010.84425.688552.106
13Boise State8-1291.188309.22517.68869.625513.100
16Florida State6-3306.719309.12530.344128.438457.063
19Virginia Tech7-2329.531407.12582.094262.438392.125
22Southern California6-3252.750315.48831.531170.063366.644
23North Carolina7-2326.156340.30075.219232.188359.050
25West Virginia7-1181.344272.81329.78178.750345.625
26Louisiana State5-3177.438230.31317.68846.813343.250
29South Florida7-2222.219311.60054.625183.188296.006

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