Monday, July 6, 2015

MLB Update

Well, it's been awhile since we checked in on the Major Leagues, but I watched Natstown beat the Giants this weekend, so I'm feeling MLB-friendly.  Here's where things stand at the mid-way point of the season.

In the National League, the scene is dominated by the Cardinals, Pirates, Nats, and Dodgers -- all teams that have been to the playoffs in recent years.  The Cubs, under GM Theo Epstein (who built those great Red Sox teams of ten years ago), are the primary interlopers.  If this were an even year, I would say to watch out for the Giants, but it's not.  If this were under a fairer playoff system, the Cardinals would be well on their way to the pennant, but it's not.  Here are the standings (each team's chance of reaching the divisional round of the playoffs -- according to FanGraphs -- in parentheses) (teams with less than a 10 percent chance are in italics):

NATIONAL LEAGUE:
St. Louis (85.9 percent):  53-28  --
Pittsburgh (55.9 percent):  47-34  6
Washington (94.9 percent):  46-36  7 1/2
Los Angeles (93.3 percent):  46-37  8
Chicago (39.7 percent):  44-36  8 1/2
New York (11.5 percent):  42-41  12
San Francisco (11.4 percent):  42-41  12
Arizona (1.7 percent):  40-42  13 1/2
Atlanta (1.3 percent):  40-42  13 1/2
San Diego (3.7 percent):  39-45  15 1/2
Cincinnati (0.1 percent):  36-44  16 1/2
Milwaukee (0.2 percent):  36-48  18 1/2
Colorado (0.1 percent):  35-47  18 1/2
Miami (0.4 percent):  35-48  19
Philadelphia (0.0 percent):  28-56  26 1/2

Over in the American League, it turns out that the Royals -- who seemingly came from nowhere to win last year's pennant -- were no flukes.  They are on top of the league, closely pursued by the surprising Astros, who were one of the worst teams in baseball in recent years.  Right behind those two we have a team called the "Yankees," led by a guy with the euphonious name of "A-Rod."  I should point out that the A's are scoring many more runs than they've allowed -- just like they explain in Moneyball, but for some reason the A's are 6-21 in one-run games.  That's not supposed to happen.  Notice, by the way, that many more teams remain in contention in the Junior Circuit than in the Senior Circuit.

AMERICAN LEAGUE:
Kansas City (64.1 percent):  46-33 --
Houston (64.1 percent):  48-36  1/2
New York (54.4 percent):  44-38  3 1/2
Los Angeles (47.0 percent):  44-38  3 1/2
Baltimore (27.1 percent):  43-39  4 1/2
Minnesota (10.2 percent):  43-39  4 1/2
Toronto (31.2 percent):  43-41  5 1/2
Tampa Bay (13.9 percent):  43-41  5 1/2
Detroit (21.5 percent):  41-40  6
Texas (5.3 percent);  41-42  7
Cleveland (21.0 percent):  38-43  9
Boston (17.0 percent):  39-45  9 1/2
Seattle (14.7 percent):  38-44  9 1/2
Chicago (4.1 percent):  36-43  10
Oakland (4.4 percent):  38-47  11

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