Wednesday, March 18, 2015

My Brackets

OK this will be the last post about my brackets.  From here forward I'll just be adding anything else to the comments section.

I have a new model for game predicting this year as well as a new system for ranking the teams.

So here are the different brackets I have for all of this stuff.

Rankings Based


Midwest
R32

UKY
Cincinnati
WVU
Maryland
Butler
Not Dame
Indiana
Kansas

R16

UKY
WVU
Butler
Kansas

R8

UKY
Kansas

R4

Kansas

R4

Virginia

R8

Villanova
Virginia

R16

Villanova
Louisville
Providence
Virginia

East
R32

Villanova
LSU
N Iowa
Louisville
Providence
Oklahoma
Georgia
Virginia

West
R32

Wisc
Ok St
Arkansas
UNC
BYU
Baylor
VCU
Arizona

R16

Wisc
UNC
Baylor
VCU

R8

UNC
Baylor

R4

Baylor

R4

Duke

R8

Duke
Iowa

R16

Duke
G'town
UCLA
Iowa

South
R32

Duke
St. Johns
Utah
G'town
UCLA
Iowa St
Iowa
Gonzaga

Championship
Duke beats Kansas

Yes that's right my ranking system does not have Kentucky as the number 1 team in the country.  In fact is has 1. Duke, 2. Virginia, 3. Kansas, 4. Kentucky.  Not sure what that says about my system, but it's a new system and will take time to figure out.  By the way the number 5 team according to my rankings, Colorado St.


Old Model
Can the new model beat the old model, we'll see.


Midwest
R32

UKY
Purdue
WVU
Mrland
Butler
N Dame
Wich St
Kansas

R16

UKY
Mrland
N Dame
Kansas

R8

UKY
Kansas

R4

UKY

R4

Villanova

R8

Villanova
Virginia

R16

Villanova
Louisville
Providence
Virginia

East
R32

Villanova
NC State
N Iowa
Louisville
Providence
Oklahoma
Mich State
Virginia

West
R32

Wisc
Oregon
Arkansas
UNC
Xavier
Baylor
VCU
Arizona

R16

Wisc
UNC
Baylor
Arizona

R8

Wisc
Arizona

R4

Wisc

R4

Duke

R8

Duke
Iowa St

R16

Duke
G'town
Iowa St
Gonzaga

South
R32

Duke
St. Johns
Utah
G'town
SMU
Iowa St
Davidson
Gonzaga

Championship
Kentucky 78
Duke 70

The old model has done well for me in the past and I'm happy to see it has Kentucky winning.


New Model


Midwest
R32

UKY
Purdue
WVU
Mrland
Butler
N Dame
Indiana
Kansas

R16

Kentucky
Mrland
N Dame
Kansas

R8

Mrland
Kansas

R4

Kansas

R4

Villanova

R8

Villanova
Provdnce

R16

Villanova
Louisville
Provdnce
Virginia

East
R32

Villanova
NC State
N Iowa
Louisville
Provdnce
Oklahoma
Georgia
Virginia

West
R32

Wisc
Oregon
Arkansas
UNC
Xavier
Baylor
VCU
Arizona

R16

Oregon
UNC
Baylor
Arizona

R8

Oregon
Baylor

R4

Oregon

R4

Duke

R8

Duke
Iowa St

R16

Duke
G'town
Iowa St
Iowa

South
R32

Duke
St. Johns
Utah
G'town
UCLA
Iowa St
Iowa
Gonzaga

Championship Game
Kansas 72
Duke 68


So my new model has an interesting pick in the final four with Oregon.  Not sure what it is about Oregon, but of course I'm only running about 63 simulations and I only run it one time for these picks.  May be the one time out of a thousand where it has Oregon going this far.

One thing I find interesting is that all three systems have Duke in the final.

42 comments:

  1. Every year on the Tony Kornheiser radio show they have their celebrity bracket picks. One consistent deep runner this year has been Iowa State. Well now Iowa State fans can hate UAB the same way UK fans hate UAB.

    This also looks good for my new ranking system which didn't see Iowa State being as good as everyone seemed to think. The bigger question of course is whether this reflects poorly on the Big 12 as a whole or if this was just one strange upset.

    I watched a bit of Notre Dame game and was quickly reminded of why it is that good offensive teams rarely make it through the tournament. Northeastern was physically tougher and stronger than Notre Dame and in the tournament the refs don't call much, so Notre Dame looked really off their game in this opener. They'll have to make some adjustments to their style of play if they want to move deep into the tournament.

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  2. And this is why we love the NCAA tournament. Georgia State just knocked off Baylor. So we now have two teams from the Big 12 out and everyone is starting to question what they've been looking at all season. It also should make everyone that much angrier at a team like Texas or Oklahoma St getting into the tournament, while teams like Murray St are left out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm not kidding when I say that the two games where Baylor beat Kentucky (in the 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons) are the only two good games I've ever seen Baylor play. Every other time I watch them they look terrible.

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    2. That was some pretty bad play down the stretch in that game.

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    3. That's how they almost always look when I watch them. There's no telling how games I've seen them throw away against Kansas.

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  3. Oh and Baylor losing doesn't bode well for my rankings.

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  4. Butler comes through as does Arizona so the higher seeds are back to winning. A lot of people were picking Texas to upset Butler because of the Big 12 pedigree, but not so much now.

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  5. I don't know how the SEC will do this year in the tournament, they may be awful, but I just want to remind everyone of the worst conference in the tournament over the last 10 years, http://www.heathpost.com/2015/02/sec-basketball.html

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    Replies
    1. If Ole Miss is representative, the SEC isn't going to do all that well. The Rebels are losing by 14 points to Xavier with about 7 minutes to go.

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    2. To be fair, Xavier is 9-22 from three-point range, while the Rebels are 5-24 behind the arc. Ole Miss did not shoot like that against UK.

      Xavier now leads by 15 without 5 minutes to go.

      Xavier may be the most underrated basketball program in America.

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  6. Now we have our first controversy with SMU getting completely hosed on a goal tending call near the end of the game. These opening two days are always just nuts.

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  7. Xavier kills Mississippi who got down and could never close the gap. The SEC loses their first team from the tournament. By the way my fledgling ranking system has Xavier ranked 8th.

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  8. Just caught the overtime of the Ohio State, VCU game, that was some sloppy basketball.

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  9. So after a flurry of big upsets things calmed down quite a bit. Some close calls for teams, but the late games all went chalk. My memory is that it tends to work that way. A good day for the Pac12, the ACC, and the Big East. Not so great for the SEC and the Big 12.

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  10. As for my picks, well here is how it sits at the moment.
    New Method: 15-5
    Old Method: 12-8
    Rankings: 13-7

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  11. Replies
    1. 12-4, 13-3 and 12-4, respectively. (The Tuesday and Wednesday games were not part of the deal.)

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    2. Thanks. I had Georgia State in the first WKDZ pool. I figured Ryan Harrow would go off. He didn't even play.

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  12. Still no upsets though Louisville cut it close.

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  13. Oregon 79
    Oklahoma State 73

    Sorry to see that one.

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  14. Here are how the multi bid conferences have done so far.
    ACC: 6-0
    Big 10: 5-2
    Big East: 4-2
    Pac 12: 4-0
    Big 12: 3-4
    SEC: 3-3
    MissV: 2-0
    A10: 2-2
    MtW: 1-2
    American: 1-1
    WstCst: 1-1

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would prefer a method where the conference performance in this year's tournament would hardwire the number of slots each conference gets in the tournament field next year. Even with all of the problems presented by conferences' disbanding or switching teams or whatever, I'd prefer all of the imperfect fixes for those situations that I could imagine vs. the method we have now.

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    2. The Europeans use a version of your suggested method for handing out slots to the UEFA Champions' League, but they base it on several years instead of one year.

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  15. Yesterday was an interesting day. The only upset of the day was the very last game of the day with Dayton beating Providence.

    Here are my standings thus far
    New Method: 24-8 (27-9)
    Old Method: 23-9 (24-12)
    Rankings: 22-10 (24-12)
    Chalk: 27-5

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  16. You know who else doesn't much care for UAB? WKU fans.

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  17. We had our first one seed go down today on a not so good day for the Big East. Villanova went down to NC State and Georgetown went down to Utah. It would seem what we are learning in this tournament is that the Pac12 and the ACC are the two strongest conferences.

    At least with Kentucky off tomorrow, it should be a more relaxing day in the tournament for me.

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  18. Well it's the sweet sixteen and it's always fun at this point to take a look back and see where we are and how things are shaping up. The weird part about college basketball and the sweet sixteen is that at this point you assume every team here is good enough to beat every other team and so you never really know how things are going to end up, but let's take a quick look at who is left in each region.

    Midwest:
    1. Kentucky
    5. West Virginia
    3. Notre Dame
    7. Wichita State

    I'm pretty sure no one in the state of Kentucky wanted to see the Cats have to play West Virginia in the NCAA tournament, but here we are. People talk about Michigan State always peaking at the right time every year, but it seems to me the same could be said for Huggins's teams.

    On Kornheiser with people making their picks, so many had Wichita State beating Kansas. It just seemed like the worst possible matchup for Kansas and it played out exactly as everyone imagined it would. The big question now is whether or not Wichita State is good enough to beat a team that doesn't have so much emotional attachment. All I know is Wichita State will be dying for a chance to get revenge for last years loss to Kentucky.

    West
    1. Wisconsin
    4. North Carolina
    6. Xavier
    2. Arizona

    Arizona and Wisconsin seem destined to play each other, but as I said you can never tell how things are going to work out in the sweet 16. Maybe UNC will go on to win the whole thing and put a big black stain on the NCAA tournament as many of us can't believe they are even being allowed to compete with an 18 year academic scandal hanging over their heads for more than a year now. Still this is one region where I think most people will expect the one and two to meet.

    East
    8. NC State
    4. Louisville
    3. Oklahoma
    7. Michigan St

    I feel for Virginia. In many ways they feel like last years Wichita State. A great team who got completely gipped with a bad second round matchup. I can honestly say I don't think anyone has any idea who will come out of this region. Most people at this point will be betting on coaches and expect Pitino and Izzo to meet in the final 8 I would assume, but neither coach has the quality team they normally have. Still that's the matchup everyone will be hoping for.

    South
    1. Duke
    5. Utah
    11. UCLA
    2. Gonzaga

    At this point the game we all want to see in this region is Duke, Gonzaga. The problem is that both teams are offense first teams and in the NCAA tournament that doesn't always work to your advantage. The good thing for Gonzaga is that UCLA is also an offensive first team. Duke on the other hand will be facing a tough defensive team who has had a very good season in what has turned out to be one of the best conferences in the country.

    It should be noted that Kyle Wiltjer had a great game in the game against Iowa. He scored 24 points in 25 minutes of play and had 7 rebounds. He shot 10 of 12. Let's hope his hot hand continues.

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    Replies
    1. To the extent that the NC2A committee's job is to set up and encourage compelling matchups in terms of rivalry history or regional intrigue, this bracket has got to be right there with the all-time greatest. Maybe Jim Nantz is the secret chair.

      This was an outstanding summary--just one quibble: If your Facebook feed is dominated by people you knew from your old church in Raleigh, trust me when I say that not everyone is hoping for U of L and Michigan State in the East final.

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    2. Yeah I basically was referring to TV execs and reporters as everybody.

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  19. The multi-bid conferences so far.

    ACC 11-1
    Pac12 7-1
    Big10 7-5
    Big12 5-5
    Big East 5-4
    SEC 4-4
    MisVal 3-1
    WstCst 2-1
    Atl10 2-3
    MtnWst 1-3
    American 1-2

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  20. My picks so far

    Old Method: 31-17 (32-20)
    New Method: 30-18 (33-19)
    Rankings: 29-19 (31-21)
    Chalk: 36-12

    So the goal every year is to do better than chalk. This is the first year in a long time where I have not been ahead of chalk right from the start.

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