Tuesday, November 11, 2014

TUCFC: 2014 Week 11

Texas Christian University rolled over Kansas State to retain the TUCFC title. Next week they travel to Kansas where they should win easily.

The big story this week was the fall of Auburn, Notre Dame, and Michigan State.  All these teams are now thought to be out of the playoff picture.  The TUCFC power ratings had Auburn at number 1 last week with Texas A&M at 31, so that was a major upset and now Auburn's role will be to try and play spoiler to Alabama assuming they survive Mississippi State.  Notre Dame had a poor showing and are now completely out of the conversation for the playoff, though this helped to strengthen the claim of a Pac 12 team.  Right now either Arizona State or Oregon will win the Pac 12.  Michigan State was thought to be the one team that had a shot at representing the Big 10, but now everyone is wondering about Ohio State.  They are obviously not the same team that lost early in the season to a bad Virginia Tech team.

We are getting down to the wire in the regular season and there aren't many teams left with a chance to make the four team playoff.  Now the big question is which major conference will be left out.  Since a committee is making the decision it really doesn't matter for instance who wins a conference, only how the committee perceives things.  Let's take a look at the teams which still have a shot.

In the SEC we have Mississippi State and Alabama left.  I don't believe any other team can make the playoff from the SEC at this point, though I could be surprised.

The Pac 12 is down to Oregon and Arizona State.  If both teams end the regular season with one loss I believe the winner of the Pac 12 title game will make the playoff.

The ACC has Florida State.  If they lose the ACC is out and probably the winners from the other conferences are all in.

The Big 12 has an interesting situation with Texas Christian and Baylor both sitting on contention.  Baylor beat TCU during the regular season and if both teams win out will take the title, but I could see the committee choosing TCU ahead of Baylor.

The Big 10 has Ohio State and Nebraska.  Both teams have tough challenges this week, so we could be looking at one or both eliminated by this time next week.

Conference USA has Marshall.  If Marshall ends the season undefeated and all other potentials for the playoffs have 2 losses, Marshall may have a shot.


Games to Watch This Week

Mississippi State (9-0) at Alabama (8-1)
     This is a huge game for both teams.  If Alabama loses they are out.

Auburn (7-2) at Georgia (7-2)
     How will Auburn respond after their big loss last week.

Nebraska (8-1) at Wisconsin (7-2)
     If Nebraska can win the Big 10 title they have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.  But they first have to win it and this should be a good game.

Ohio State (8-1) at Minnesota (7-2)
     I would love to see Minnesota pull off this upset, but Ohio State is playing much better football right now.

Missouri (7-2) at Texas A&M (7-3)
     If Missouri ends up winning the SEC title, it may be that the SEC doesn't get a team into the playoff.  I'm not sure which helps the SEC a Missouri win or a loss here.



TUCFC Power Rating
It's amazing to me how dominate the SEC West still is in the power rating.

Rank Team Record WP WDiffP LP LDiffP Power
1 Mississippi State 9-0 543.094 597.025 0.000 0.000 1,140.119
2 Auburn 7-2 572.375 570.088 12.969 75.125 1,054.369
3 Alabama 8-1 520.781 569.363 11.438 32.500 1,046.206
4 Oregon 9-1 548.063 553.888 21.000 35.750 1,045.200
5 Mississippi 8-2 525.625 594.925 19.625 74.250 1,026.675
6 Florida State 9-0 468.500 452.575 0.000 0.000 921.075
7 Texas Christian 8-1 445.906 501.000 9.344 19.125 918.438
8 Baylor 8-1 407.094 534.625 30.000 78.813 832.906
9 UCLA 8-2 488.875 391.062 41.063 83.188 755.688
10 Arizona State 8-1 408.781 392.788 18.125 60.938 722.506


26 comments:

  1. I am rooting for TCU and Marshall.

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  2. This has been a great college football season.

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  3. There's a potential for snow at the OSU/Minnesota game. That would be fun.

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  4. I think Texas Christian is the best team in the Big XII, but I think the Committee will take Baylor over Texas Christian if both teams go 11-1.

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  5. It feels like Texas A & M has always been in the SEC, but there are about five times a month when I get confused because I still think Missouri's in the Big XII.

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  6. Ohio State leads Minnesota, 14-7. They just had to punt. I don't know where this game is being played, but, wherever it is, they're getting some sleety-looking snow. It looks gray and fantastic.

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    1. I watched almost all of this game, and told my Dad to tune in as well. They said it was the coldest game Ohio State has played since 1960. I've been waiting for something like this ever since the Golden Gophers moved out of the Metrodome.

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  7. Oh, cool! Minnesota puts "MINNESOTA" above the numbers on the backs of their jerseys. I love that.

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  8. I am now prepared to confirm that this game is at Minnesota.

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  9. An Ohio State defender named Bosa just threw the Minnesota runner for a loss on second-and-9. The Dolphins drafted, maybe in the first round, a defensive lineman from, I think, Ohio State, in the 1980s named John Bosa. I'll bet these guys are kin.

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  10. Minnesota punts Ohio State back to its 4 or so. There's 11:34 to go before half.

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  11. Pending what I learn about the Bosas, I am tentatively rooting for Minnesota in this game.

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  12. I've never been colder than I was one time in downtown Minneapolis. Downtown Chicago got pretty close once, though.

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  13. Ohio State puts together a phenomenal drive in which the quarterback, J.T. Barrett (I think), both runs and passes like a champ. On second-and-2 from the Minnesota 7, the Buckeyes run some kind of end around; as the ballcarrier is hit at about the 2, the ball squirts into the end zone. An Ohio State player has a bead on the loose ball, but it squirts away from him, too--and a Minnesota guy finally smothers the ball. Touchback .... now third-and-1 coming for Minnesota at its own 40, with 5:50 to play ...

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  14. 3:45 ... Minnesota converts a fourth-and-3 to the Ohio State 25 ...

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  15. And on third-and-15, a senior running back named Cobb scoots through a gap in the middle of the line, cuts away from a safety and dashes in for his second rushing touchdown of the first half! My Gophers pull even with Ohio State at 14 with 1:24 to play in the second quarter.

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    1. I spent a lot of time listening to the Minnesota radio guys during this game, and I thought they were outstanding -- one of the best radio teams I've heard.

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  16. Ohio State gets a solid kick return, and then--aided by a number of Minnesota penalties--the Buckeyes advance to the Gopher 5 with 2 seconds remaining. Through light snow, Ohio State's field-goal attempt sails through the uprights. It's 17-14, Buckeyes, at the half.

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  17. Back in action at Minnesota, as the Gophers get the ball to open the second half. At midfield, an Ohio State defender steps in front of a pass to the sideline as a Minnesota receiver falls. The Buckeye races to the end zone, and it appears Ohio State has a touchdown. But no! It's pass interference on the Buckeyes, and Minnesota stays alive. The Gophers misconnect on a deep pass to the end zone and end up settling for a 52-yard field-goal try by a freshman who looks more like Chester Marcol than anyone since 1979. The frosh's kick, plenty long, pounds squarely against the goal post, and ricochets back onto the field of play. Still 17-14, Ohio State ...

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  18. And now Barrett completes a deep pass against blown coverage to a wide-open receiver, and now it's 24-14, Buckeyes.

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  19. And now Minnesota throws an interception. This concludes my coverage of today's game, unless either the snow or my Gophers pick up a lot of steam.

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    1. Two final observations. At least two of the Ohio State coaches spent the game in shirt sleeves, and the Minnesota head coach was eating an ice cream bar on the field just before the second half got started.

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  20. Matt Stinchcomb said on the SEC Network yesterday that, at the moment, he had both Alabama and Mississippi State in the playoffs, along with Baylor and Oregon. I was unclear whether he felt like yesterday's Alabama-Mississippi State game, which was still ongoing at the time he said this, would eliminate one of those two teams, yielding a spot for, for example, Florida State.

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