Sunday, November 2, 2014

TUCFC: 2014 Week 10

Texas Christian took a close win over West Virginia, to take back the TUCFC title 31-30, on a last second field goal. This sets up a big game between Kansas State and TCU next weekend.

With the playoff beginning to loom large over the college season we saw this weekend the beginning of the weeding out of teams from the playoff picture.   Arizona and Utah both had big losses, while Kansas State and TCU both had big wins.  Auburn knocked Mississippi out of the playoff picture it would seem, while Florida State has apparently sealed their spot.

Probably the oddest result of the weekend was Florida beating Georgia.  Georgia had been flying high atop the SEC East and now that spot belongs to Missouri a team who lost earlier in the year to Indiana.  It really does make me wonder about the SEC East.  If somehow the East champ could stun the West champ to take the SEC title, I actually believe there could be no SEC team in the playoff.  Hard to believe I know, but it could happen.  And that's the fun of thinking about this upcoming playoff.  With only four spots at least one of the big five conferences will not get a team in.

Games to Watch This Week

Texas A&M (6-3) at Auburn (7-1)
     The way A&M is playing this should be an easy win for Auburn, but at this point every win is critical.

Oregon (8-1) at Utah (6-2)
     Oregon is in the same boat as Auburn at this point.  They have to keep winning and this game is their toughest remaining test on paper.

Alabama (7-1) at LSU (7-2)
     LSU would love to take down Alabama and Alabama needs to keep winning, this should be a great game.

Kansas State (7-1) at Texas Christian (7-1)
     Much like the SEC West the Big 12 is beating each other up.  If Kansas State is going to win out they have to win this one and still beat West Virginia and Baylor.  If they can survive with only one loss to Auburn it is hard to imagine they wouldn't make the playoff, but it is really hard to imagine they can survive all of these games.

Ohio State (7-1) at Michigan State (7-1)
     Everyone has pretty much written off the Big 10 but I think that is a mistake.  If Michigan State wins out and Kansas State, Baylor, and TCU all have two losses it seems to me that Michigan State will get into the playoff.  This is a huge game for Michigan State.

Notre Dame (7-1) at Arizona State (7-1)
     If Notre Dame wants to be a part of the playoff picture this is a critical win for them.  Then they need Arizona State to go on and win the Pac 12.  That would get Notre Dame the nod over the Pac 12.  If Arizona State can take this win it will be interesting to see where they move to in the poles.

Baylor (7-1) at Oklahoma (6-2)
     It has not been a good year for Oklahoma but I'm sure they would love to play spoiler in the Big 12.

Iowa (6-2) at Minnesota (6-2)
     As weird as it may seem these two teams are fighting for their shot to win the Big 10.

TUCFC Power Rating
Oregon, Florida State, and Texas Christian all made big moves this week.

Rank Team Record WP WDiffP LP LDiffP Power
1 Auburn 7-1 461.594 509.038 1.000 15.000 954.631
2 Mississippi State 8-0 422.625 501.988 0.000 0.000 924.613
3 Mississippi 7-2 366.656 454.750 6.500 37.750 777.156
4 Oregon 8-1 356.813 435.663 18.938 30.625 742.913
5 Florida State 8-0 343.594 370.913 0.000 0.000 714.506
6 Alabama 7-1 303.750 422.238 6.125 24.875 694.988
7 Louisiana State 7-2 293.563 410.538 3.500 46.500 654.100
8 Texas Christian 7-1 275.844 385.413 7.500 18.625 635.131
9 Nebraska 8-1 272.531 375.450 4.688 16.875 626.419
10 Michigan State 7-1 247.469 393.525 8.094 29.875 603.025


  1. Here's the way I see it:

    1. FSU is in. For that matter, FSU is going to win the national championship.

    2. Whoever wins the SEC West is in, unless they lose the SEC championship, in which case I agree that the SEC may be shut out.

    3. The remaining slots will go to the following teams in this order:

    a. Oregon or Arizona State (assuming that either team finishes the season with only one loss)
    b. Notre Dame (assuming it gets thru the season with only one loss)
    c. Either K-State, Baylor, or Texas Christian (assuming that one of them gets through with only one loss)
    d. Either Ohio State, Michigan State, or Nebraska (assuming that one of them gets through with only one loss).

    4. If there aren't enough one-loss teams to fill the bracket under the above scenario, then the Committee will probably fill up the slots based on how the polls come out.

    1. Oh -- in point 3 above I overlooked the possibility that Auburn or Mississippi State could finish the season with one loss and yet not win the SEC West. If either of these teams accomplishes such an odd feat, they would be slotted to go into the playoff behind Oregon State, Arizona State, and Notre Dame, but ahead of the teams from the Big XII and the Big 10.

  2. From the UCFC perspective, what's most important is that whoever wins the K-State/Texas Christian game this weekend needs to win out and take the Big Gold Trophy into the playoff. That way we can unite the two titles.

    For this reason, Texas Christian's victory over WVU was a very big deal.

  3. By the way, here's the Big 10 West: Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, and Illinois.

    Now, I realize that Nebraska has not been itself for awhile now, but I'm pretty certain the Huskers would have won this division about 30 years in a row from the early 1970's to the early 2000's. And it wouldn't surprise me to see them get on a similar roll in the near future.

    The big winners of the conference scramble of the last few years, it seems to me, are Nebraska and Florida State. FSU should have a very easy time of it in the ACC, and Nebraska should dominate the Big 10 West.

  4. This report and the comments are so great. I pretty much follow only WKU and UK during the college-football season, but now I feel caught up going into the end of the season. I am rooting for TCU, and I really wish the tournament was larger.