Thursday, March 13, 2014

How Do the 2014 Cats Stack Up?

Ken Pomeroy's site has data showing UK's offensive and defensive efficiency in each year going back to 2003.  So I reviewed the data for conference games only, subtracting defensive efficiency from offensive efficiency to come up with an overall number.  Comparing this year's team to recent UK teams, we can see that it's much better than last year's team -- or the two Gillespie teams -- but it's not likely to make much of a run in the post-season:

Year         Difference
2012            26.9 (National Champions)
2003            23.3 (Elite Eight)
2005            14.4 (Elite Eight)
2010            13.9 (Elite Eight)
2011            11.5 (Final Four)
2004            10.9 (Second Round) (lost to UAB in a game that wasn't as much of an upset as I thought)
2014              8.3 (??????)
2007              7.9 (Second Round) (the 2014 and 2007 teams are uncannily similar)
2006              5.3 (Second Round)

2009              4.4 (NIT)
2013              3.3 (NIT)
2008              1.5 (First Round) (Gillespie was named SEC Co-Coach of the Year for this team)

By the way, by this measure this year's Florida team scores a 20.9, while Tennessee scores a 13.5.  So it appears that Florida is not as good as our 2012 team, while Tennessee could make some big noise in the NCAA's.


  1. Ken Pom has UK beating LSU 76-71 tonight. I will dance in the street if that happens.

  2. You're safe. They won by 18.