Wednesday, March 20, 2013

2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Picks

Every year I run some numbers through a computer program and generate my tournament picks.  Here's what I have this year.  I've included information this year about possible upsets.  The upset information may seem a bit confusing when I am picking Oregon to beat St. Louis which would be an upset but only giving Oregon a 37% chance for pulling the upset.  Who the computer picks to win is different than their chances of pulling off the upset.

Midwest
Round of 64
Louisville (1) 73 - 53 NC A&T (16)
Colorado St (8) 70 - 69 Missouri (9)  50% chance for upset
Oklahoma St (5) 65 - 68 Oregon (12)  75% chance for upset
St. Louis (4) 63 - 55 New Mexico State (13)
Memphis (6) 69 - 65 St. Mary's (11)   50% chance for upset
Michigan St (3) 79 - 55 Valparaiso (14)
Creighton (7) 71 - 68 Cincinnati (10)  25% chance for upset
Duke (2) 88 - 48 Albany (15)

Round of 32
Louisville (1) 81 - 55 Colorado St (8)
Oregon (12) 66 - 65 St. Louis (4)  37% chance for upset
Memphis (6) 62 - 68 Michigan St (3)  13% chance for upset
Creighton (7) 62 - 76 Duke (2)

Round of 16
Louisville (1) 79 - 59 Oregon (12)
Michigan St (3) 67 - 66 Duke (2)  75% chance for upset

Round of 8
Louisville (1) 65 - 58 Michigan St (2)  13% chance for upset


West
Round of 64
Gonzaga (1) 91 - 40 Southern (16)
Pittsburgh (8) 68 - 61 Wichita State (9)  50% chance for upset
Wisconsin (5) 63 - 56 Mississippi (12)  25% chance for upset
Kansas St (4) 73 - 63 Boise St  (13)
Arizona (6) 68 - 60 Belmont (11)  25% chance for upset
New Mexico (3) 84 - 47 Harvard (15)
Notre Dame (7) 76 - 63 Iowa St (10)  25% chance for upset
Ohio State (2) 81 - 46 Iona (15)

Round of 32
Gonzaga (1) 71 - 63 Pittsburgh (8)  25% chance for upset
Wisconsin (5) 66 - 72 Kansas St (4)  25% chance for upset
Arizona (6) 69 - 71 New Mexico (3)  37% chance for upset
Notre Dame (7) 76 - 68 Ohio St (2)  25% chance for upset

Round of 16
Gonzaga (1) 74 - 67 Kansas St (4)  25% chance for upset
New Mexico (3) 61 - 65 Ohio St (2)  25% chance for upset

Round of 8
Gonzaga (1) 61 - 62 Ohio St (2)  50% chance for upset 


South
Round of 64
Kansas (1) 96 - 44 Western Kentucky (16)
North Carolina (8) 67 - 64 Villanova (9)  25% chance for upset
VCU (5) 73 - 57 Akron (12)
Michigan (4) 83 - 53 S Dakota St (13)
UCLA (6) 66 - 65 Minnesota (11)  25% chance for upset
Florida (3) 75 - 46 Northwestern St (14)
San Diego St (7) 62 - 64 Oklahoma (10)  50% chance for upset
Georgetown (2) 81 - 49 FGCU (15)

Round of 32
Kansas (1) 77 - 65 North Carolina (8) 
VCU (5) 62 - 68 Michigan (4)  25% chance for upset
UCLA (6) 57 - 66 Florida (3)  25% chance for upset
Oklahoma (10) 57 - 78 Georgetown (2)

Round of 16
Kansas (1) 78 - 65 Michigan (4) 
Florida (3) 63 - 67 Georgetown (2)  50% chance for upset

Round of 8
Kansas (1) 63 - 64 Georgetown (2)  37% chance for upset


East
Round of 64
Indiana (1) 85 - 44 James Madison (16)
NC State (8) 68 - 66 Temple (9)  50% chance for upset
UNLV (5) 66 - 63 California (12)  50% chance for upset
Syracuse (4) 79 - 50 Montana (13)
Butler (6) 79 - 51 Bucknell (11)
Marquette (3) 77 - 57 Davidson (14)
Illinois (7) 70 - 65 Colorado (10)  25% chance for upset
Miami (2) 81 - 54 Pacific (15)

Round of 32
Indiana (1) 69 - 63 NC State (8)  50% chance for upset
UNLV (5) 59 - 69 Syracuse (4)  13% chance for upset
Butler (6) 67 - 70 Marquette (3)  50% chance for upset
Illinois (7) 66 - 67 Miami (2)  50% chance for upset

Round of 16
Indiana (1) 71 - 68 Syracuse (4)  25% chance for upset
Marquette (3) 71 - 70 Miami (2)  50% chance for upset

Round of 8
Indiana (1) 73 - 70 Marquette (3)  50% chance for upset


Final 4
Louisville 71 - 54 Ohio State
Georgetown 69 - 67 Indiana   37% chance for Indiana to win


Final
Louisville 71 - 64 Georgetown  50% chance for Georgetown to win

7 comments:

  1. I'm rooting for Oklahoma State (it's coached by Travis Ford, Madisonville native) or Louisville (it's in Louisville); WKU (of course) or VCU (#Belt87!); Belmont (our church's music minister went there); IU (nephew-in-law went there), JMU (friends went there, and I love Harrisonburg, Va.), N.C. State (friends went there, and I love Raleigh) or Butler (my mom loves that coach).

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    1. That's funny I root against Butler because of their coach.

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    2. Mom and her best friend/cousin both just adore him. He's huge with 80-year-old-plus/5-feet minus women in Evansville, apparently.

      Of course, Mom is also thrilled to be in the early going of three weeks of Jim Nantz saturation.

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    3. "What's wrong with that boy?" Mom says. "Are they (the Butler coach and Jim Nantz) too much gentlemen for him?"

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    4. Kyle Tucker ‏@KyleTucker_CJ 16m
      Handful of folks tweeting at me that UK should hire Brad Stevens one day when Calipari is done here. Thoughts from #BBN?
      2:02 PM - 21 Mar 13

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    5. I actually think he's a better fit for UNC. They kind of a like a coach who's standofish and arrogent.

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