Monday, November 19, 2012

TUCFC: 2012 Week 12

Baylor took the UCFC title by knocking off Kansas State 52-24, and they also put a big wrench into the BCS race knocking Kansas State out of the running.  Next week Baylor will be hosting Texas Tech for the UCFC title.

Kansas State wasn't the only top tier team to lose in week 12 as Oregon also fell losing to Stanford  17-14.  If only one of these teams had loss the national championship picture would be very clear today, but with both teams losing the race for the top two spots is now wide open, even bringing Florida State back into the picture.  Let's take a look at the current BCS picture.

1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Florida
5. Oregon
6. Kansas State
7. LSU
8. Stanford
9. Texas A&M
10. Florida State

Out of the BCS top ten, who really has a chance to take the top two spots?  Well if Notre Dame wins their final game they will finish as the number 1 team and be in.

Alabama will need to win out.  They play Auburn this week.  Assuming they win that then they will play Georgia in the SEC championship game.  Assuming they win out they will get the number 2 spot.

If Georgia beats Georgia Tech and Alabama they will take the number 2 spot.

If Georgia loses to Georgia Tech but beats Alabama and Florida beats Florida State, Florida may get the number 2 spot.

Oregon is in trouble.  As it stands right now they won't even have a shot at the Pac 12 championship game and that will hurt them.  They need Stanford to lose to UCLA this week, USC to beat Notre Dame, and some other things to happen to get back into the top two spots.  Though human voters love Oregon, the computers aren't all that crazy about them right now.

Stanford is loved by the computers but not by the humans.  They need to win out and take the Pac 12.  They also need a lot of other big losses by other teams to get the human voters to open up to them, but it is still possible for Stanford to make the top 2.

Florida State will have to beat Florida and then win the ACC title.  The humans have Florida State ranked 5th and 6th, it's the computers that hate them ranking them 17th.  They need to kill Florida and have a bunch of other people lose in order to close that gap.  

Games to Watch this Week

Georgia Tech (6-5) at Georgia (10-1)
     Tech has had a weird year, but could play spoiler against their in-state rivals.

 Michigan (8-3) at Ohio State (11-0)
     Ohio State could end the season undefeated.

Miami (Florida) (6-5) at Duke (6-5)
     I have no idea the tie breaker for the ACC but I believe UNC is ineligible so if Miami wins this week they take the Coastal Division.

Oregon (10-1) at Oregon State (8-2)
      This should be a very good game.  The BCS computer models make this a number 7 versus number 12 matchup.

Florida (10-1) at Florida State (10-1)
     When was the last time this game held so much drama.  This is Florida's last game of the year and they need to beat down Florida State to leave a deep impression with the human voters.

Stanford (9-2) at UCLA (9-2)
     If Stanford wins they win the Pac12 North.  This is the game of the week I think.

South Carolina (9-2) at Clemston (10-1)
     If Clemson beats South Carolina and Florida State beats Florida that could greatly help Florida State in getting to the BCS championship game.

Notre Dame (11-0) at USC (7-4)
     If Notre Dame wins they are playing for a national championship and USC may be looking for a new coach.  If USC can pull off the win people all across the country will suddenly love Lane Kiffin.

TUCFC Power Ratings
Stanford makes a big jump from 10 to 3.  As you can see one of the reasons why Stanford is so loved by the computer models are their quality wins.  Their WP ranking is second best to Notre Dame with Florida sitting at number 3.  The computer models love that stuff.  It's the primary reason why Florida State gets rated so low, they have a WP of 538.969, that's almost 500 points lower than Florida.  A win over Florida will give them a huge boost.

1Notre Dame11-0948.938810.5250.0000.0001,759.463
6Ohio State11-0738.781635.9500.0000.0001,374.731
7Louisiana State9-2656.375628.42510.75032.5001,241.550
8Kansas State10-1705.656745.41360.844221.5631,168.663
10Texas A&M9-2530.563637.96312.43833.5001,122.588



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