Thursday, November 8, 2012

TUCFC: 2012 Week 10

Kansas State defended their UCFC title with a 44-30 win over Oklahoma State. This week they will be at Texas Christian. This will give TCU their second shot at the title this year.

This past week in college football was all about the big games USC, Oregon and LSU, Alabama. To my mind the real winner this weekend was Alabama. They went to LSU and beat what is quite possibly the second best team in the country. This was the one game everyone was looking at and thinking that it could be the downfall of Alabama and the SEC's shot at another national championship, but they survived and now Alabama moves on to another tough game against a ranked Texas A&M team.

Oregon meanwhile once again impressed everyone with their offense, but their defense was dreadful. The big downfall Oregon has had over these past few seasons has been their soft defense and if they end up having to play USC again, I'm not so sure they can win it.

It is that time of year where all the focus is on who will fight it out for the national championship and who is bowl eligible. We are also closing in on who will win the conferences. Let's take a look at the current standings.

ACC:  Florida State and Clemson are both tied in the Atlantic Division with 5-1 records. Florida State beat Clemson earlier in the season and holds the tie breaker.  Miami of Florida leads the Coastal with a 4-2 record and so we could end up with a Miami, Florida State conference championship.  I can remember when those games were a big deal.

Big 10:  Ohio State leads the Leaders Division while Nebraska and Michigan are tied with 4-1 records in the Legends Division.  Probably the stupidest division names in sports history.  Nebraska beat Michigan earlier in the season so they hold the tie breaker.  Michigan still has to play Northwestern and Ohio State.  There is though something very critical here.  Neither Penn State nor Ohio State, the top two teams in the Leaders Division, are eligible to play in the conference championship game.  That defaults the top spot of the Leaders Division to Wisconsin 3-2 in conference play.

Big 12:  Kansas State should win the Big 12 unless they fall apart.  They have a 6-0 conference record.

Big East:  Currently Rutgers and Louisville are tied with 4-0 conference records and they are each others final regular season game.  Hopefully that will be the deciding game for the Big East.

Conference USA:  Central Florida leads the East Division with a 5-0 record, while Tulsa leads the West with a 5-0 record.  They will actually face each other during the regular season in their second to last regular season games.

MAC:  Of all the sub conferences this is the big one.  Kent State, Bowling Green, Ohio, Northern Illinois, Toledo, and Ball State all have seven or more wins this year.  Currently Kent State leads the East Division while Northern Illinois leads the West, both with undefeated conference records.  Ball State beat Toledo on Tuesday night and Bowling Green State beat Ohio on Wednesday.  Kent State has Miami of Ohio this week, then close out with Bowling Green and Ohio.  Northern Illinois is off this week then faces Toledo and Eastern Michigan.  This should be an exciting race.

MWC:  Fresno State and San Diego State currently sit tied at the top of the Mountain West with 5-1 records.  Boise State and Air Force are at 4-1 in conference play.  Fresno State is at Nevada this week who is 6-3 and 3-2 in conference, while San Diego State will be hosting Air Force.  Two good games to watch this weekend.

PAC 12:  Oregon leads the North with a 6-0 record and they are expected to win out, though they do still have to play Oregon State and Stanford in their Division.  Meanwhile UCLA leads the South Division.  Who would have thought that.  They still have to play USC and Stanford.  This will be the first time in a long time where the UCLA, USC game may have some real meaning.  Currently USC sits just behind UCLA in their Division and if these positions hold up a win would put USC into the PAC 12 championship game.

SEC:  Alabama is a lock to win the West, unless something very strange happens, but the East is a battle between Florida and Georgia both with one loss records in conference.  The key there is that Georgia holds the tie breaker over Florida.  Florida is done with SEC play while Georgia travels to Auburn this week to finish out their SEC play.  A win this week clinches the SEC East for Georgia.

Sun Belt:   There are three teams tied with 4-1 records in Sun Belt conference play:  Louisiana-Monroe, Arkansas State, and Middle Tennessee State.  Louisiana-Monroe has to travel to Arkansas State this week while Middle Tennessee State is off.

WAC:  It's the last year for the WAC and they have a unique situation with one of their teams, Louisiana Tech getting nationally ranked.  Louisiana Tech and Utah State are currently undefeated in conference play and they play next week.  That should be a good game.

Games to watch this week

Louisiana-Monroe (6-3) at Arkansas State (6-3)
     This game is being played tonight and should be a good game.  I have really enjoyed the Sun Belt games I've watched this season.

Wisconsin (6-3) at Indiana (4-5)
     If Indiana wins this game it will put them at the top of the Leaders Division.  Indiana then closes out with Penn State and Purdue while Wisconsin would have to play Ohio State and Penn State.  So who knows maybe Indiana will win the Big 10.

Northwestern (7-2) at Michigan (6-3)
     Hard to think of Northwestern maybe being better than Michigan.  Truth is if Northwestern knew how to hold onto a lead they would be looking at winning the Big 10 this year.

Oregon State (7-1) at Stanford (7-2)
     This should be a good game, though maybe a bit low scoring.

Texas A&M (7-2) at Alabama (9-0)
     A&M is a pretty good team and they'll be hoping this is a trap game for Alabama.

Air Force (5-4) at San Diego State (7-3)
     This should be an easy win for San Diego State, but it's a big game this late in the season.

Vanderbilt (5-4) at Mississippi (5-4)
     If I'm thinking correctly you need to get to six wins to be bowl eligible so this will be a big game for these two teams.

Kansas State (9-0) at Texas Christian (6-3)
     This should be a good UCFC title game and will be another critical win for Kansas State if they hope to be atop Oregon at the end of the year for a shot at the BCS title game.  They need to win and win big.

TUCFC Power Ratings
With their win over LSU Alabama moves into the top slot.  Texas A&M and Clemson both move into the top ten while Florida State and South Carolina fall out.

2Notre Dame9-0460.313496.6120.0000.000956.925
4Kansas State9-0377.531541.3500.0000.000918.881
6Ohio State10-0380.000439.5870.0000.000819.588
8Louisiana State7-2307.531369.6005.75023.750647.631
9Texas A&M7-2236.813413.68810.25031.375608.875

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