Monday, July 30, 2012

OES Now With Population

The first thing I thought of when reading the OES post was that it wasn't taking into account population.  I then pulled some population data to throw into the mix.  I used world population percentage between the ages of 15-65 for all countries. 

India has 19% of the world's population and so projecting by population alone should now have a total of 19 medals.  Projecting by their GDP they should have a total of 3 medals.  If we average those projections then India should have a total of 11 medals.  In fact they have one which would give them an Extended OES (EOES) of .093.  The United States by population should have 4 and by GDP should have 25, averaging we get 15 and they currently have 13 for an EOES of .894. 

Here are the current EOES numbers for the top 10 medal winning countries.

1. China 14 (1.279)
2. United States 13 (0.894)
3. Italy 8 (3.867)
4. Japan 7 (1.334)
5. France 6 (2.354)
6. South Korea 5 (3.918)
    Russia 5 (2.969)
8. North Korea 3 (19.097) pop alone
    Hungary 3 (18.188)
    Romania 3 (12.598)
    Australia 3 (3.014)
    Brazil 3 (1.289)


  1. It's interesting to see that the USA does even worse once population is taken into account.

    1. I thought the US did better with population considered. Their EOES is higher than their OES.

    2. Their EOES is higher than their OES, but the gap between their EOES and that of countries like France, Japan, South Korea, and Australia is even bigger than the gap that exists when you look at OES only.

      In other words, when you look only at OES, you could argue that the United States is doing better than, say, Japan. Looking at EOES, we're clearly worse than Japan.

    3. Good point, but we're ahead of India .093, Mexico .584, Canada .734, UK .765. That's something and those are the countries that have won medals. There are 16 other countries who have been projected to have won a medal by now that have not including the likes of Germany.

    4. It's striking that Australia does so much better under these measures than most English-speaking countries.

  2. When you consider how good Italy is at soccer and the Winter Olympics, it appears that they may actually be the world's best country for sports.