Sunday, February 12, 2012

Vanderbilt 63 - 69 Kentucky (No. 2,077)

Here at the Northern Virginia desk of the Heath Post, we really try to watch each Kentucky game in a controlled environment. We dislike many of the television announcers who call UK's games, so we listen to Tom Leach's radio broadcast. We have a room with an HDTV that is dedicated to each game. We set up our laptop well in advance of the game, so that we can get in-game statistics while play continues. But last night, our cocoon-like atmosphere was repeatedly disturbed by strong, gusting winds that kept knocking out our power. The electricity went out five different times during the Vandy-UK broadcast. Each time it came back within a minute or two, but then there was another delay of seven-eight minutes while my DirectTV box re-set itself. In fact, a series of power outages near the end of the game caused me to miss the last five minutes altogether. It all made for a long and trying night.

It was a long and trying night for the Big Blue, who faced their toughest game in several weeks. In fact, it felt like they played four different games over the course of the evening:

1. The First Half: Facing a UK team that was 10-0 in conference play, Vandy apparently decided to try something other than the whole "pack everything in a zone and hope UK misses" strategy that we've faced from most SEC teams. Instead, the Dores came out doing two things that most teams have not tried. First, they kept working the ball inside to Festus Ezeli, evidently hoping to get Davis in foul trouble. Second, they made a real effort to shut down UK's three-point shooting by playing up on the guards. I can sort of see why Kevin Stallings thought these tactics were worth trying. Having Davis get into foul trouble is about the worst thing that could happen to Kentucky. And when UK's hot from three-point range, they can blow you out. But while Stallings gets credit for thinking outside the box, there's a reason most folks stay in the box. Davis's footwork and timing are so good that it's very difficult to get him in foul trouble, and in fact, he stayed on the floor for 39 minutes. And Vandy's man-to-man defense fell apart because Brad Tinsley, their point guard, was repeatedly torched by Marquis Teague. All year, everyone has sagged off of Teague, and now we see why. He blazed past Tinsley over and over, scoring eight points and picking up five assists in the first half. Meanwhile, Vandy's effort to work the ball inside failed, as Ezeli went 2-7 in the first half and the Dores went 8-29 from the field as a team. At the half, UK was up 36-23, and it looked like another blowout was on the way.

The First Eight Minutes of the Second Half. At halftime, Vandy apparently decided to chuck both of their original tactics. They went back to their much more familiar pattern of shooting three's from everywhere and packing their defense into a zone. This worked brilliantly. In the first half, Vandy scored only 23 points. In the first 8 minutes of the second half, they scored 25. Meanwhile, UK's outside shooting really struggled, and the Cats couldn't break down Vandy's zone. With 11:59 left in the game, the score was tied at 48, and Memorial Gym (the best gym in America) was going nuts. At this point, I thought UK would probably lose. When Vandy gets comfortable running their offense in their gym, they are almost impossible to beat. And since Cal only had two timeouts left, the Cats were pretty much going to have to figure things out on their own.

The Next Eight Minutes of the Second Half. With 10:40 left in the game, Miller (who had been plagued with foul trouble throughout the contest, and who was now playing with four fouls) made a three-point shot to put UK up by 51-48. For the next few minutes, this looked like an Elite Eight game, with both teams scoring huge baskets and the old gym rocking from the rabid crowd. With 8:42 left, Vandy was up 55-51 when Davis rebounded a missed three-pointer by Lamb, missed the put-back, got the rebound again, and scored to keep UK within one possession. I thought that was a huge play. With UK up 61-57, Vandy put together a free throw by Lance Goulbourne, a three-pointer by Tinsley, and a jump shot by Tinsley to take a 63-61 lead with 4:10 to go. After scoring only 23 points in the first half, the Dores had now scored 40 points in less than 16 minutes of the second half. They seemed to have completely figured out UK's defense.

The Last Four Minutes of the Game. But then UK went to another level. Vandy stole the ball, but Ezeli missed a layup and UK had another chance. They worked the ball into the corner to Lamb, who had struggled throughout (he was 2-7 from three-point range) but who nailed a three-pointer to put UK up 64-63. Vandy had several other chances after that, but the Dores never scored another point. Here are the relevant descriptions from the official play-by-play:

3:30 left (Vandy up 63-61) MISSED LAYUP by EZELI, Festus
2:35 left (UK up 64-63) MISSED 3 PTR by JENKINS, John
1:58 left (UK up 66-63) MISSED JUMPER by EZELI, Festus
1:52 left (UK up 66-63) MISSED JUMPER by TAYLOR, Jeffrey
0:48 left (UK up 68-63) MISSED 3 PTR by TAYLOR, Jeffrey
0:35 left (UK up 68-63) MISSED LAYUP by TINSLEY, Brad
0:32 left (UK up 68-63) MISSED 3 PTR by GOULBOURNE, Lance
0:14 left (UK up 68-63) MISSED 3 PTR by JENKINS, John
0:06 left (UK up 69-63) MISSED 3 PTR by TINSLEY, Brad

With 3:30 to go in the second half, Vandy's shooting totals for the half were 15-26 overall (57.7 percent) and 5-7 from three-point range (71.4 percent). But down the stretch, the Dores went 0-9 overall and 0-5 from three-point range.

I'm not sure exactly what happened here. After the game, Davis was interviewed by Erin Andrews and gave a technical explanation that involved switching and the three-point shooter that I, for one didn't understand. The UK and Vandy fans both thought that officiating played a role; the UK fans thought the refs finally started to let UK play tough defense while the Vandy fans thought the officials swallowed their whistles. And I'm sure some of it was that Vandy simply couldn't maintain the torrid pace they had been on. Whatever happened, it was impressive; it is very rare for Vandy to go the last 4:10 of a home game without making a field goal or even taking a free throw.

One other play should be noted. With just over a minute to go, UK had a 66-63 lead and the ball. With time running out on the shot clock, Teague fell in the lane -- but managed to roll the ball to Miller, who scored to put UK up five. Vandy fans are very bitter about this play -- they claim that Teague walked and that time expired before UK scored -- but I think Miller and Teague should both get credit for quick thinking.

So what does all this mean? Ken Pomeroy would probably tell you it may not mean anything. He predicted UK would win 75-68 in a game with 66 possessions; they won 69-63 in a game with 62 possessions, so his prediction was really close. Vegas also called this correctly; the oddsmakers made UK a 5 1/2 point favorite, and the Cats won by six. In other words, both UK and Vandy played almost exactly as the experts predicted. And while UK's mental toughness was impressive, it's important to understand that Vandy also blew close games this season against Xavier, Louisville, and Mississippi State. So at least some of what looks like good UK defense down the stretch is also attributable to poor execution by Vandy.

But on the other hand, this win may mean a great deal. UK has a week off after this game, and that would have been a long week if they had just blown a 13-point lead to a rival on ESPN's GameDay broadcast. Now guys like Teague (13 points, 8 assists, only 1 turnover), Jones (14 points, 9 rebounds), Lamb (16 points), and Davis (15 points, 8 rebounds, another nationally-televised step toward player of the year) will feel good about themselves. Games like this help teams feel like winners, and it's hard to be a winner if you don't feel like one. Statistically, UK's come-from-behind victory in the last game of the regular season in Knoxville last year wasn't all that impressive, but I thought it was critical in sparking UK's run down the stretch. We will hope this game has similar consequences.

The Cats are now 11-0 in the SEC, 25-1 overall, and they don't play again until Saturday. Here are their last five games:

2/18: Mississippi
2/21: at Mississippi St.
2/25: Vanderbilt
3/1: Georgia
3/4: at Florida

So they still have some work to do.

Shooting Note: UK shot very well against Florida, but under-performed last night. UK normally makes 37.3 percent of their three point shots; last night they made only 21.4 percent (3-14). UK normally shoots 72.0 percent from the line; last night they were only 66.7 percent (10-15). We will hope they do better next week.

6 comments:

  1. The big question I would have had for Calipari after the game is what happened to Wiltjer in the second half. I thought he played his best game in the first half. He was physical and active. In the second half when they had so many guys in foul trouble and needed someone who could hit something I kept thinking he would get another shot but he never did.

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  2. That's a good question. My guess is that he felt Wiltjer would hurt them on defense, but I don't know for sure. Calipari doesn't stick to a system, and he seems to do a lot of his coaching by feel. For example, he put Miller back in the game with a lot of time still left on the clock, even though Miller had four fouls and hadn't really done much all night. And then Miller played great.

    I will say this: one of the things I really like about Calipari is that he coaches to win each game that he plays, unlike some other coaches who are willing to take a loss here and there to accomplish some larger goal.

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  3. One of the color guys for ESPN has commented a couple of times that the guy Miller covers essentially never scores. It happens so quietly that no one notices it but all the coaches know it. When Miller came back in even with four fouls he was put on their hottest scorer and completely quieted him down.

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  4. Yeah, I think he must get to spots before the scorer gets there and basically usurps any sort of passing to that player. I never can stop watching the ball long enough to figure it out.

    This was a great breakdown of the game, by the way. During that great start to the second half by Vanderbilt, Rex Chapman, @rexchapman, Tweeted, "I'm all for pressuring the Hell out of the Commodores 94-feet. They have no handlers. Think they'll kick it all over the gym." I thought that was an excellent idea, and I wonder why Coach Calipari didn't choose to do it. He obviously made the right decision; I would just like to know more about that.

    I don't think I agree that Coach Calipari is "unlike some other coaches who are willing to take a loss here and there to accomplish some larger goal." One of the things that he appears to be willing to sacrifice wins for is not awarding playing time to individuals who apparently don't deserve it on some scale of his. It hasn't come up so much this season because UK is deeper, but last season there were many, many games when Coach Calipari would not play a Stacey Poole or Jon Hood or some other player even though he was down to maybe one or even no other option on his bench. It appeared several times that UK could've absolutely benefitted from giving some member of his six-man rotation just one or two minutes of rest, and yet Coach Calipari would continue to keep those other guys on the roster sitting. Now it could have been that he honestly thought they would hurt UK's chances of winning that game, but there were times that didn't appear to me to be the case. There was some unspoken line that Coach Calipari was drawing in the sand.

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  5. I think after the UNC and IU games Calipari decided that UK's half-court defense is generally better than its full-court defense -- in part because the full-court defense ends up allowing open looks from three-point range. But that's just my guess.

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  6. Good guess. It's got to be something like that.

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