But tonight, we have one final celebration of light amidst the darkness. Tonight, there is a game on Ken Pomeroy's FanMatch for the last time until November:
7:49 P.M. Central (TBS): (3) Michigan (36-3) v. (7) Connecticut (34-5)
The rankings above are based on the final AP poll before the tournament began. On Ken Pom, UConn is Number 9, with a Luck Ranking of 33, while Michigan is Number 1, with a luck score of 89. Michigan's Net Rating on Ken Pom is +39.72, which means that over 100 possessions, Michigan will outscore the average opponent by almost 40 points. It's the highest Net Rating for any team in the Ken Pom database, going back to 1997. So if Michigan wins tonight, they will have a strong case to be the best team in NCAA basketball since Kentucky's 1996 powerhouse.
To put the Wolverines in context, consider the following. In 1998, UK's champions had a Net Rating of +29.29. In 2012, the National Champion Cats had a Net Rating of +32.59. The 2015 Cats, who finished 38-1, had a Net Rating of +36.91. Under Pomeroy's system, on a neutral court, this Michigan team would be a solid favorite against any of those teams. That's how good they are.
But they aren't out of the woods yet. They have to overcome a lot of history. The last Classic Big Ten team to win the national title was Michigan State, who beat Florida in the 2000 final. Since that time, seven different schools from the Classic Big Ten have reached the NCAA Final, but they have all lost. Furthermore, they have mostly lost to teams from the East Coast, and most of these matchups have not been close:
2002: Maryland 64, Indiana 52
2005: N. Carolina 75, Illinois 70
2007: Florida 84, Ohio St. 75
2009: N. Carolina 89, Michigan St. 72
2013: Louisville 82, Michigan 76
2015: Duke 68, Wisconsin 63
2018: Villanova 79, Michigan 62
2024: Connecticut 75, Purdue 60
However, I would note that in each of those games, the Big Ten team was the underdog. This time, Ken Pom is picking Michigan to win by 77-70. No one respects UConn more than I do, but Duke showed that the Huskies can be beaten, and we'll see if Michigan can turn the trick tonight. Either way, I think this game will mark a significant turning point in college basketball history. If UConn wins, they are clearly the dominant program of the 21st century. If Michigan wins, then the Big Ten is well-positioned to control men's basketball in the same way that it now controls football. After all, the Big Ten used to lose football playoff games -- but they don't any more.
No team has scored 90 points in the NCAA Title Game since UNLV beat Duke 103-73 in 1990.
ReplyDeletePete Thamel is now reporting that Michael Malone, who coached thee Nuggets to the NBA Title in 2023, will be the next coach at UNC. That's good news for the Vandy fans.
ReplyDeleteIt's also a clever move by UNC, who was being turned down by folks like Dusty May. This way, instead of taking a second-tier college coach, they take a former pro coach.
ReplyDeleteTheFieldof68 has dropped its Way Way Too Early Top 25 for the 2026-27 season, and Kentucky is not on the list.
ReplyDeleteThis whole issue of where to rank UK going into next season is really interesting to me. The press wants Mark Pope to stay at Kentucky, and they know that if Kentucky starts the year unranked, the UK fan base will be in an uproar even before the season begins. So they would like to rank the Cats. On the other hand, they know that it's almost certain that UK won't finish the year in the top 25. So that would be a good reason not to rank UK. My guess is that UK will begin the year ranked somewhere between 17 and 23. That way, Pope's supporters can say that the team is ranked -- but once the Cats start losing, they can be quickly dropped from the rankings.
ReplyDeleteThis feels like a huge game. I haven't been this interested in a non-UK game since Louisville played Michigan for the 2013 title.
ReplyDeleteHere are the UConn starters:
ReplyDeleteAlex Karaban, 6' 8" Forward, Redshirt Senior (Southborough, Mass.)
Tarris Reed, Jr., 6' 11" Center, Senior (St. Louis, Mo.)
Braylon Mullins, 6' 6" Guard, Freshman (Greenfield, Ind.)
Silas Demary, Jr., 6' 4" Guard, Junior (Raleigh, N.C.)
Solo Ball, 6' 4" Guard, Junior (Leesburg, Va.)
And here are Michigan's starters:
ReplyDeleteYaxel Lendeborg, 6' 9" Forward, Grad Student (Pennsauken, N.J.)
Morez Johnson, Jr., 6' 9" Forward, Sophomore (Riverdale, Ill.)
Aday Mara, 7' 3" Center, Junior (Zaragoza, SPAIN)
Elliot Cadeau, 6' 1" Guard, Junior (W. Orange, N.J.)
Nimari Burnett, 6' 5" Guard, Grad Student (Chicago, Ill.)
Michigan 11 - 10 Connecticut (11:57 left in 1st)
ReplyDeleteAs I expected, Michigan's high-powered offense is struggling against UConn's East Coast defense. Mara, who destroyed Arizona on Saturday, has already missed three short shots. And the Wolverines are 0-3 from three-point range.
Michigan 17 - 18 Connecticut (7 minutes left in 1st)
ReplyDeleteMichigan is 0-5 from three-point range. They won't be scoring any 90 points in this game. This game will be a grinder.
Michigan 23 - 25 Connecticut (3:58 left in 1st)
ReplyDeleteMichigan now 0-7 from three-point range, but 9-10 at the line. Wolverines staying in this game at the line.
One thing is clear. The best team in the country was Duke. The Blue Devils beat Michigan on a neutral floor, and should have beaten UConn. Second year in a row that Duke had the best team and couldn't win the tournament.
Michigan 29 - 25 Connecticut (2:24 left in 1st)
ReplyDeleteUConn is called for a hook-and-hold, and Michigan takes advantage, going on a 6-0 run. Danny Hurley -- furious that UConn has been called for 11 fouls to 4 for Michigan -- calls time.
Down 6-3 in the bottom of the 8th, the scrappy Washington Nationals explode for six runs and beat the Cardinals 9 to 6.
ReplyDeleteMichigan leads 33-29 at the half. Lendeborg is clearly not at full strength, and Michigan is 0-8 from behind the three-point line. But the Wolverines kept attacking the basket and getting to the line, and that's been the difference. Give Michigan a lot of credit for being mentally tough enough to realize that they have to grind this one out.
ReplyDeleteMichigan:
ReplyDelete0-8 from 3 (0.0 percent)
11-22 from 2 (50.0 percent)
11-12 from the line (91.7 percent)
33 points, 21 rebounds
Connecticut
5-15 from 3 (33.3 percent)
5-15 from 2 (33.3 percent)
4-6 from the line (66.7 percent)
29 points, 20 rebounds
Michigan 48 - 37 Connecticut (12:47 left)
ReplyDeleteMichigan finally makes a 3. The Wolverines are now 1-11. But they have been fighting much harder in this half, and their aggression is starting to really weigh on UConn.
Michigan 52 - 45 Connecticut (7:16 left)
ReplyDeleteAfter jumping out to an 11-point lead, Michigan went back to taking jump shots, and no one is making jump shots tonight. This is a game where you have to attack the rim. Michigan is now 1-14 from three-point range. Fortunately for them, UConn is now 5-24. No one has made a three-point shot at the end of the floor where UConn is shooting.
Lendeborg is 0-5 from 3, 2-5 from 2, and 3-3 from the line. He needs to stop taking outside shots.
ReplyDeleteIt's a shame to play this game in such a terrible shooting environment, but it happens almost every year.
ReplyDeleteAlso, they've mostly stopped calling fouls.
ReplyDeleteMichigan 56 - 48 Connecticut (5:21 left)
ReplyDeleteMichigan had built an 11-point lead, but Mullins finally made a 3 to cut the lead to 8. UConn calls time.
Michigan 60 - 51 Connecticut (3:48 left)
ReplyDeleteLendeborg has stopped taking outside shots. He's now 0-5 from 3, 4-8 from 2, and 5-5 from the line. But the Huskies aren't beaten yet. UConn will be going to the line when we come back.
This whole game, if you're a Michigan fan, is like watching a world-class figure skater having to do the compulsory figures. In a game normally dominated by speed and skill, this game is about effort and precision.
Michigan 65 - 56 Connecticut (1:49 left)
ReplyDeleteUConn closed to within 62-56 and got a steal. It looked like an easy basket for the Huskies, but Michigan got back and prevented a score. Then, at the other end, a scramble on defense left Trey McKenney wide open from 3. He was 0-3 from three on the night, but he made this one, and now Michigan leads by 9. Michigan timeout.
Both the football season and the basketball season ended with a Classic Big Ten team going up against a Classic Big East team. In both games, the Big Ten team was forced into a violent, grinding sort of game unlike their usual pretty patterns. Indiana survived its battle with Miami. Can Michigan hang on against UConn?
ReplyDeleteMichigan 67 - 60 Connecticut (48 seconds left)
ReplyDeleteMichigan ball.
With 48 seconds left, Michigan turns over the ball. UConn comes out of a timeout and gives the ball to Solo Ball, who banks in a long shot. After a review, the officials decide Ball made a three-point shot:
ReplyDeleteMichigan 67 - 63 Connecticut (37 seconds left)
Michigan misses two free throws. UConn comes down and Karaban shoots a long three -- it bounces off the front rim. Trey McKinney gets the rebound and is fouled.
ReplyDeleteMichigan 67 - 63 Connecticut (13 seconds left)
McKinney is going to the line. But first, Hurley is appealing for a thrown elbow by McKinney.
The appeal is denied, McKinney makes the free throws, and Michigan wins the game!
ReplyDeleteMichigan:
2-15 from 3 (13.3 percent)
19-40 from 2 (47.5 percent)
25-28 from the line (89.3 percent)
69 points, 39 rebounds
Connecticut
9-33 from 3 (27.3 percent)
12-35 from 3 (34.3 percent)
12-16 from the line (75.0 percent)
63 points, 46 rebounds
Michigan really earned this title.
Meanwhile, everyone in the South needs to go back to the drawing board. For the first time in many years, the Midwest clearly has the edge over the South.
ReplyDeleteMy favorite thing about Michigan is how their fight song refers to them as "The Champions of the West." But today, they beat the best the East could put up against them.
ReplyDelete