For our MLB Preview, here are the over/under projections from Vegas:
NATIONAL LEAGUE:
Los Angeles: 103 1/2
Atlanta: 101 1/2
Philadelphia: 89 1/2
St. Louis: 84 1/2
Chicago: 83 1/2
Arizona: 83 1/2
San Francisco: 83 1/2
San Diego: 83 1/2
New York: 81 1/2
Cincinnati: 81 1/2
Miami: 77 1/2
Milwaukee: 76 1/2
Pittsburgh: 75 1/2
Washington: 66 1/2
Colorado: 59 1/2
AMERICAN LEAGUE:
Houston: 93 1/2
New York: 90 1/2
Baltimore: 89 1/2
Texas: 88 1/2
Minnesota: 87 1/2
Seattle: 87 1/2
Toronto: 86 1/2
Tampa Bay: 84 1/2
Detroit: 80 1/2
Cleveland: 79 1/2
Boston: 77 1/2
Kansas City: 73 1/2
Los Angeles: 72 1/2
Chicago: 61 1/2
Oakland: 57 1/2
I still haven't really figured out how to deal with the MLB regular season. Except for a few teams in the middle of each league, most games are effectively exhibitions -- the Dodgers and the Braves, for example, are not likely to play any meaningful games before the Playoffs. So what are you watching when the Dodgers are playing the Pirates in the middle of the season? It's not like an NFL Exhibition Game, but it's also not a game that will have any impact on who wins the championship. I still don't know how to feel about those games.
And what do we do with Moneyball? I think the new system has effectively broken the Moneyball approach. When Bill James and the SABR guys started doing their work, a team usually needed to win at least 95 games to make the playoffs, and the statistical revolution was designed to help teams figure out how to get there. But regular season wins aren't that important anymore. last year, for example, the Braves won 104 games and the Phillies won only 90 -- but the Phillies only needed 90 wins to get into the playoffs, and then they quickly eliminated Atlanta for the second year in a row. So what was the point of Atlanta's building a team that could win 104 games? What they needed was a team that could beat the Phillies in a short series -- and those two goals are not the same.
I think, going forward, MLB fans will have to become more like NHL fans. NHL fans have a special love for "playoff hockey," and they understand that seeding is basically meaningless once the hockey playoffs start. MLB fans need to do the same. "Playoff baseball" is completely different from regular season baseball. To win 100 games, you need three and probably four good starting pitchers. To win in the playoffs, you only need two. To win 100 games, you need to beat up on teams with losing records. In the playoffs, there are no teams with losing records.
So here's what I'm planning to try this year. For the first two months, I'll just get a sense of which teams are probably in the playoffs, which teams are certainly going to miss the playoffs, and which teams are in the middle. We should have a good sense of which teams are in which buckets by Memorial Day. Then I'm just going to track the playoff teams for the rest of the season -- just to get to know them, so I'll be ready for the playoffs. And then I'll treat October as MLB month, like I did last year.
Of course, tonight I'll be watching the Sweet Sixteen, and putting thoughts in the comments.