Pope Update

For the fourth year in a row, Kentucky is eliminated on Friday in the SEC quarter-finals.  The Cats tried hard, and I'm sure they did their best, but they just aren't in Florida's league.  No one can shoot in Bridgestone Arena -- and that includes the Gators, who were 3-20 from three-point range.  But as the smaller and less physical team, UK needed to make outside shots, and the Cats went 5-23 from behind the arc, even after two games of practice.  UK's poor outside shooting sank the Cats, as they were utterly dominated inside.  The Gators outrebounded UK 50 to 29, and the Gators took 33 free throws to only 20 for UK.

The Cats will go into the NCAA Tournament with a record of 0-3 against Florida, and 21-10 against everyone else, for an overall record of 21-13.  The Cats went 12-9 against SEC opponents this year, or 12-6 against SEC opponents not named Florida.  The Cats are 28 on Ken Pom, and 233 in Luck.  They will have a struggle to reach the Second Round of the NC2A's.

From the outside, it appears that UK has had a wacky season this year, with all sorts of ups and downs.  But that's not really true.  After Alabama beat UK on January 3, the Cats fell to 25 on Ken Pom.  Since that time, they have never been higher than 24 (after they beat Tennessee on the road), and they have never been lower than 33 (after they were blown out at Vandy).  They are, and have been for the last two months, a team that should go to the NCAA Tournament, but should not be ranked by the AP.

The only reason anyone was ever confused about UK's status is because, for reasons that I have never understood, they began the season ranked very high.  And here, I think, it's fair to complain about the press.  I have watched a lot of college basketball this year -- it's been one of the best seasons in many years, and there are a number of great teams.  There is simply no way that anyone who has seen Duke, or Michigan, or Florida, or Purdue, or Houston, or Arizona, or Illinois, or UConn, could pretend that UK was at the same level as those teams.  And the injuries make very little difference to these facts.  UK simply wasn't a significantly better team even with all its parts.  I have no idea why so many commentators pretended that guys like Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen were better than they are.

UPDATE:  In the second quarterfinal, Vanderbilt defeated Tennessee 75 to 68.  So Vandy takes two out of three from the Vols.  On this basis, I am going to award Vanderbilt the championship of the Eighth Region.  It is the first time since 1974 that the Commodores have captured that title.  Vandy moves to 25-7 on the year, 13 on Ken Pom, and 120 in Luck.  Tennessee is 22-11 on the year, 15 on Ken Pom, and 322 in luck.  This year Tennessee had a four-point loss (at home) to Kentucky, a three-point loss (on the road) to Kentucky, a two-point loss (at home) to Alabama, a four-point loss (at home) to Vandy, and now another loss to Vandy.

Ken Pom believes that Florida will beat Vanderbilt in the semi-finals tomorrow by a score of 83 to 77.

Pope Update

Kentucky has reached the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament with a 78-72 victory over 8-seeded Mizzou in Nashville.  The Cats led by as many as 16 points early in the second half, but lost that entire lead due to a dominant performance by Mark Mitchell, a Mizzou forward who led all scorers with 32 points.  With 2:34 left in the game, Mitchell put Mizzou ahead 70-69, but the Cats responded with a 7-0 run that left them in control.  Both Otega Oweh (21 points) and Denzel Aberdeen (16 points) had huge, late-in-the-shot-clock, drive-to-the-basket-and-get-fouled-but-they-don't-call-the-foul-because-it's-late-in-a-close-SEC-game buckets to give UK the victory.

For the first time since 2018, the Cats have won two games in the SEC Tournament.  They are now 21-12 on the year, and ranked 27 on Ken Pom.  Their Luck score has improved to 212.

While the close wins over LSU and Mizzou were entertaining, tomorrow the scrappy Cats play the Big Kids.  Florida, the National Champions, brings its 11-game winning streak to Nashville for a noon tip-off.  In 80 minutes against Florida this year, the Cats have never held the lead.  The Gators rolled over UK 92-83 in Gainesville on Valentine's Day, and cruised to an easy 84-77 victory in Rupp last Saturday.  Ken Pom thinks the Gators will win this game 83-73, although he gives UK an 18 percent chance of pulling the upset.

UK hasn't made the semi-finals of the SEC Tournament since 2022.  Here are their last three trips to the quarter-finals, none of which was impressive:

03/10/23:  Vanderbilt 80, Kentucky 73

03/15/24:  Texas A & M 97, Kentucky 87

03/14/25:  Alabama 99, Kentucky 70

Pope Update

In the 9-16 matchup at the SEC Tournament in Nashville, the Cats beat LSU 87 to 82.  Brandon Garrison was the MVP of the game, behind 17 points -- including two three-pointers.  Kam Williams came back, and scored 3 points in 17 minutes.  The Cats move to 20-12 on the year, and they advance to play Number-8 seed Mizzou tomorrow afternoon.  UK remains at Number 27 on Ken Pom, with a ranking of 233 for luck.

My guess is that today's game will end the Matt McMahon era at LSU.  In four seasons, he has gone 17-55 in the SEC.  Interestingly, his team's rankings on Ken Pom have improved every year -- from 151 to 95 to 88 to 62.  But I will be surprised if he gets another year at LSU.  After all, they have standards.  It will be a bad day for UK if LSU brings in a big-name coach.

16 Teams Left

Here is the draw for next week's KHSAA Boys' Basketball Tournament:

Wednesday, March 18:

(1) Cov. Catholic Colonels (31-2) v. (4) Lou. St. Xavier Tigers (26-7)

(3) Warren Cent. Dragons (26-3) v. (16) N. Laurel Jaguars (28-7)

Taylor Co. Cardinals (26-9) v. Grayson Co. Cougars (25-6)

Danville Christian Warriors (23-7) v. Great Crossing Warhawks (23-11)

Thursday, March 19:

(19) Lou. Butler Bears (26-5) v. Hazard Bulldogs (24-10)

(5) N. Oldham Mustangs (25-5) v. Lyon Co. Lyons (29-6)

(6) Geo. Rogers Clark Cardinals (29-4) v. Johnson Cent. Golden Eagles (28-5)

(10) Boyd Co. Lions (29-6) v. Marshall Co. Marshals (24-8)

Every team in this year's State Tournament has won at least 23 games, and the great majority have been to the tournament within the last five years.  It should be very competitive.

26 Teams Left

Tonight is the last night of the Regional Tournaments.  Five Regional Titles -- including the important Eleventh and Seventh Regionals -- were decided last night:

SECOND REGION SEMI-FINALS (at Madisonville-N. Hopkins H.S.):

Henderson Co. 56, Hopkins Co. Cent. 55

Lyon Co. 80, Hopkinsville 56

FOURTH REGION SEMI-FINALS (at W. Kentucky U.):

(3) Warren Cent. 73, Barren Co. 38

S. Warren 54, Monroe Co. 51

FIFTH REGION SEMI-FINALS (at Green Co. H.S.):

Taylor Co. 52, Caverna 35

N. Hardin 68, Adair Co. 56

SEVENTH REGION FINAL (at Valley H.S.):

(4) Lou. St. Xavier 63, (9) Lou. Ballard 49

St. X takes the Seventh Region for the second year in a row.

EIGHTH REGION SEMI-FINALS (at Henry Co. H.S.):

Spencer Co. 59, Henry Co. 52

(5) N. Oldham 49, (20) Woodford Co. 33

TENTH REGION SEMI-FINALS (at Mason Co. Fieldhouse):

(6) Geo. Rogers Clark 81, Scott 53

Montgomery Co. 91, Campbell Co. 71

ELEVENTH REGION FINAL (at E. Kentucky U.):

Great Crossing 53, (7) Lex. Frederick Douglass 45

Great Crossing, the defending State Champion, will return to the Sweet 16 for the third year in a row.

TWELFTH REGION SEMI-FINAL (at Pulaski Co. H.S.):

W. Jessamine 49, Boyle Co. 48 (OT)

Danville Christian 62, Rockcastle Co. 41

THIRTEENTH REGION FINAL (at Corbin Arena):

(16) N. Laurel 51, Bell Co. 38

North Laurel takes the 13th Region for the fourth time in the last five years.

FOURTEENTH REGION FINAL (at Breathitt Co. H.S.):

Hazard 64, Powell Co. 57

The last time Hazard won the 14th Region was in 2020, and the State Tournament was canceled for COVID a few days later.  This year, the Bulldogs are scheduled to play in the State Tournament for the first time since 2010.

FIFTEENTH REGION FINAL (at Pikeville Expo Center):

Johnson Cent. 81, Pikeville 68

Johnson Central returns to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019.

SIXTEENTH REGION SEMI-FINALS (at Morehead St. U.):

(10) Boyd Co. 76, Russell 71

Ashland Blazer 83, Raceland 55

Right now, the State Tournament draw looks like this:

(1) Cov. Catholic or Ryle v. (4) Lou. St. Xavier

(3) Warren Cent. or S. Warren v. (16) N. Laurel

N. Hardin or Taylor Co. v. Grayson Co. or Meade Co.

W. Jessamine or Danville Christian v. Great Crossing

(19) Lou. Butler or (13) Lou. Jeffersontown v. Hazard

(5) N. Oldham or Spencer Co. v. Henderson Co. or Lyon Co.

(6) Geo. Rogers Clark or Montgomery Co. v. Johnson Cent.

Marshall Co. v. (10) Boyd Co. or Ashland Blazer