tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post2696911438437554481..comments2024-03-29T00:38:31.950-04:00Comments on The Heath Post: NFL20 UpdateGoHeathhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11122010542579322600noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-14880734923760954502020-06-28T22:58:19.649-04:002020-06-28T22:58:19.649-04:00Well, heck.<a href="https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/06/28/patriots-sign-cam-newton/" rel="nofollow">Well, heck.</a>Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-77191093816033926352020-04-12T17:23:20.065-04:002020-04-12T17:23:20.065-04:00I'm not going to lie. The comps are not in Fit...I'm not going to lie. The comps are not in Fitzpatrick's favor here. <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FitzRy00.htm" rel="nofollow"><i>Pro Football Reference</i> lists for a given player other "players whose career was of similar quality and shape" after a certain number of seasons.</a> Part-time-starting late-1970s Billy Kilmer, early-2000s Chris Chandler or early-2010s Kerry Collins are among the most hopeful models you can find for the possible Ryan Fitzpatrick of NFL20 and beyond. <br /><br />The absolute best case among the <i>Pro Football Reference</i> comps is <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MortCr00.htm" rel="nofollow">Craig Morton</a>. After his Super Bowl season with the "Orange Crush" Broncos of NFL77--in his 13th year, at age 34, when he had an AV of 12--Morton continued to be Denver's primary starting quarterback for four more seasons. His AVs were seven, seven, eight and--in his 17th year, at age 38--10. This was NFL81, and Morton started 15 games as the Broncos went 10-6 and just missed the AFC playoffs. Morton threw for a career-high 3,195 yards that season, had a 95-yard touchdown pass and was sacked a league-leading 54 times. <br /><br />The next (strike-shortened) season, Morton missed all but three games, as the Broncos slipped to 2-7 and turned mostly to Steve DeBerg. And then Morton retired, and John Elway arrived in NFL83.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-183141766878056922020-04-11T13:18:36.163-04:002020-04-11T13:18:36.163-04:00Updated final prediction: eight wins, last berth i...Updated final prediction: eight wins, last berth in expanded AFC playoffs, Super-Bowl champions.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-75983220145244336872020-04-11T11:25:48.182-04:002020-04-11T11:25:48.182-04:00But most of all what I hope is that there is an NF...But most of all what I hope is that there is an NFL20. Dear Lord, please end this virus.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-48567194187033070572020-04-11T11:24:56.116-04:002020-04-11T11:24:56.116-04:00And you know what else I hope? I hope the Patriots...And you know what else I hope? I hope the Patriots don't get Cam Newton or Jameis Winston.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-14971848162271921052020-04-11T11:24:05.457-04:002020-04-11T11:24:05.457-04:00And then I hope Miami gets Tua (and that he's ...And then I hope Miami gets Tua (and that he's great forever). Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-62108206433269928322020-04-11T11:21:06.674-04:002020-04-11T11:21:06.674-04:00On balance, I think I'm most hopeful that the ...On balance, I think I'm most hopeful that the Dolphins feel out the Bengals to exactly what it would take to trade up to No. 1, and, basically, the answer is there is no answer:<br /><br /><i>-- We had Greg Cook, and he was going to be great, but then he got hurt. <br /><br />-- We picked up Virgil Carter off the scrap heap, and he was OK.<br /><br />-- We got Ken Anderson in the third round, and he was very good for a long time and great some years (but that was because Dad was a genius). <br /><br />-- We got Boomer Esiason in the second round, and was very good for a good while and great a few years.<br /><br />-- We got David Klingler at No. 6 overall, and he was never much good at all.<br /><br />-- We got Jeff Blake off the scrap heap, and, you know, he was very good and actually almost great there for a couple of years.<br /><br />-- We got Akili Smith at No. 3 overall, and he was never much good at all.<br /><br />-- We got Jon Kitna off the scrap heap, and was mostly OK, though occasionally quite good.<br /><br />-- We got Carson Palmer No. 1 overall, and he was very good some years and great a couple, and I wonder what would've happened had he never got hurt. <br /><br />-- And we got Andy Dalton in the second round, and he was very good for a long time (but never great).<br /><br />-------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />= gosh, I just don't know. Let's just take Burrow.</i>Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-29704047231117910332020-04-11T10:59:30.154-04:002020-04-11T10:59:30.154-04:00So, in the spirit of having to have several very g...So, in the spirit of having to have several very good players but needing one of them to be your quarterback, ...<br /><br />+ the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick is already 37<br />+ the fact that the Dolphins have a slew of draft picks next year<br />- the fact that Tua might turn out to be better than Burrow, anyway<br />--------------------------------------------------------------------------<br />= gosh, I just don't know.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-30364712609132285902020-04-11T10:56:28.227-04:002020-04-11T10:56:28.227-04:00That's an average AV of seven. But I think the...That's an average AV of seven. But I think the more correct takeaway from that list is that quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall tend to be as likely to be really very good from the very start as they are really not ready (or at least really not ready to prevail with a really bad team around him). And I mean that's an encouraging thing. And, by the way, three of those 12 guys have already played in Super Bowls. I mean that as an encouraging thing, too. Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-58561933391137163892020-04-11T10:51:56.342-04:002020-04-11T10:51:56.342-04:00Here are the last 12 quarterbacks to be picked No....Here are the last 12 quarterbacks to be picked No. 1 overall and their rookie-season AVs:<br /><br />-- Kyler Murray 14<br />-- Baker Mayfield 10<br />-- Jared Goff -2<br />-- Jameis Winston 13<br />-- Andrew Luck 13<br />-- Cam Newton 19<br />-- Sam Bradford 9<br />-- Matthew Stafford 3<br />-- JaMarcus Russell 1<br />-- Alex Smith -3<br />-- Eli Manning -1<br />-- Carson Palmer 8Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-63454554360781153922020-04-11T10:49:56.807-04:002020-04-11T10:49:56.807-04:00There is plenty of talk that the Dolphins are tryi...There is plenty of talk that the Dolphins are trying to trade up to get Louisiana State quarterback Joe Burrow, who is probably going to end up getting picked first overall one way or another. Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-10922582747294242212020-04-11T10:45:58.613-04:002020-04-11T10:45:58.613-04:00But I'll tell you what would stink is if the p...But I'll tell you what would stink is if the poor kid ended up with injury-dashed careers that look like <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CookGr00.htm" rel="nofollow">Greg Cook's</a> or <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GrifRo01.htm" rel="nofollow">Robert Griffin III's</a>. Man, I root for Robert Griffin III. I would love it if that guy some day came back to have a great season for somebody (other than the Patriots) at quarterback. Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-4212394708093822522020-04-11T10:43:10.115-04:002020-04-11T10:43:10.115-04:00Miami is currently slated to pick No. 5 in the fir...Miami is currently slated to pick No. 5 in the first round, and it sets up reasonably likely that the Dolphins could actually end up there with the guy who turns out to be the best prospect in the entire draft class, Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, because of his injury concerns. That would be freaking amazing, if the Dolphins draft Tua, he turns out to be healthy and he racks up season after season of AVs in the high teens and 20s. <i>That would be amazing!</i>Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-47162192703740953932020-04-11T10:38:36.790-04:002020-04-11T10:38:36.790-04:00So ... not too likely.So ... not too likely.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-63416653677911782572020-04-11T10:38:06.125-04:002020-04-11T10:38:06.125-04:00In NFL19, there were four rookies who logged doubl...In NFL19, there were four rookies who logged double-digit AVs. The No. 1 overall pick, quarterback Kyler Murray, was a 14 for Arizona; the No. 2, defensive end Nick Bosa, was an 11 for San Francisco. Then there was a second rounder, Tennessee wide receiver A.J. Brown, and sixth, Jacksonville quarterback Gardner Minshew, who each had 10s.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-58851730728841477172020-04-11T10:37:50.915-04:002020-04-11T10:37:50.915-04:00Or, of course, there's hitting the lottery in ...Or, of course, there's hitting the lottery in the April 23-25 draft. Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-79639431215256344932020-04-11T10:35:16.683-04:002020-04-11T10:35:16.683-04:00After this, however, we are down to hope for veter...After this, however, we are down to hope for veteran breakout/comeback seasons--one or more of, perhaps, running back Jordan Howard, tight end Mike Gesicki, center Ted Karras, guard Ereck Flowers, defensive ends Christian Wilkins or Shaq Lawson, linebacker Jerome Baker or Raekwon McMillan, cornerbacks Byron Jones or Xavien Howard?Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-1674911808110047802020-04-11T10:31:00.909-04:002020-04-11T10:31:00.909-04:00It would be great if DeVante Parker's fifth NF...It would be great if DeVante Parker's fifth NFL season turns out to not be the highlight of his career. The Dolphins' NFL15 first-round draft choice had an AV of nine in NFL19, after injury-riddled seasons of two, six, five and two. It could be that the Dolphins were so inept last season that opposing defenses played super-conservatively against them, content to just prevent giant plays and allowing Fitzpatrick and Parker to record some impressive but mostly harmless statistics. <br /><br />It could very well be.<br /><br />But that's no fun to think about, and so let's be hopeful that <a href="https://www.heathpost.com/search?q=devante+parker" rel="nofollow">our old friend from Louisville Ballard</a> is ready to take another leap forward in his development. Maybe he's a third very good player on the NFL20 roster.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-77985491738979853692020-04-11T10:23:17.169-04:002020-04-11T10:23:17.169-04:00Fitzpatrick played better at the end of NFL19 than...Fitzpatrick played better at the end of NFL19 than he played at the beginning. Plus, the Dolphins' new offensive coordinator, Chan Gailey, was Fitzpatrick's head coach at Buffalo in NFL11 and NFL12 and offensive coordinator with the Jets in NFL15--those were the other three seasons of double-digit AVs in Fitzpatrick's career. So, anyway, maybe Fitzpatrick in NFL20 is a very good player. That would be two.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1697242053625998558.post-87266635055491954412020-04-11T10:17:49.673-04:002020-04-11T10:17:49.673-04:00OK, so Van Noy ... good. He seems pretty likely to...OK, so Van Noy ... good. He seems pretty likely to be one very good player for NFL20. That's one. Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11218278987255792995noreply@blogger.com